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A novel Bayesian approach to predicting reductions in HIV incidence following increased testing interventions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Vancouver, Canada.

ABSTRACT: Increasing HIV testing rates among high-risk groups should lead to increased numbers of cases being detected. Coupled with effective treatment and behavioural change among individuals with detected infection, increased testing should also reduce onward incidence of HIV in the population. However, it can be difficult to predict the strengths of these effects and thus the overall impact of testing. We construct a mathematical model of an ongoing HIV epidemic in a population of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men. The model incorporates different levels of infection risk, testing habits and awareness of HIV status among members of the population. We introduce a novel Bayesian analysis that is able to incorporate potentially unreliable sexual health survey data along with firm clinical diagnosis data. We parameterize the model using survey and diagnostic data drawn from a population of men in Vancouver, Canada. We predict that increasing testing frequency will yield a small-scale but long-term impact on the epidemic in terms of new infections averted, as well as a large short-term impact on numbers of detected cases. These effects are predicted to occur even when a testing intervention is short-lived. We show that a short-lived but intensive testing campaign can potentially produce many of the same benefits as a campaign that is less intensive but of longer duration.

SUBMITTER: Irvine MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5908528 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A novel Bayesian approach to predicting reductions in HIV incidence following increased testing interventions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Vancouver, Canada.

Irvine Michael A MA Konrad Bernhard P BP Michelow Warren W Balshaw Robert R Gilbert Mark M Coombs Daniel D

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20180301 140

Increasing HIV testing rates among high-risk groups should lead to increased numbers of cases being detected. Coupled with effective treatment and behavioural change among individuals with detected infection, increased testing should also reduce onward incidence of HIV in the population. However, it can be difficult to predict the strengths of these effects and thus the overall impact of testing. We construct a mathematical model of an ongoing HIV epidemic in a population of gay, bisexual and ot ...[more]

PMID: 29540541

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Project description:ObjectivesAs the primary public health strategy for controlling the 2022 Mpox outbreak, it is critical to evaluate the impact of Mpox vaccination campaigns for transgender people and gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (T/GBM). We measured vaccine uptake and associated factors among T/GBM clients of an urban STI clinic in British Columbia (BC).MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional online survey between August 8-22, 2022 of clients who had attended the STI clinic, 5-7 weeks following the first-dose Mpox vaccination campaign in BC. We drew on a systematic review of factors associated with vaccine uptake to develop survey questions, and measured vaccine uptake among vaccine-eligible T/GBM.ResultsOverall, 51% of T/GBM had received the first dose of the vaccine. The sample (331 participants) was majority White and university educated, identified as a man and gay, 10% had trans experience, and 68% met eligibility criteria for vaccination. Among vaccine-eligible participants identifying as T/GBM, 66% had been vaccinated; being unvaccinated was more common among participants identifying as bisexual or heteroflexible/mostly straight, and who spent less time with other T/GBM. Eligible yet unvaccinated participants had lower perceived susceptibility, and reported fewer cues to action (e.g., fewer saw information promoting the vaccine), and increased constraints to vaccine access; vaccine barriers related to accessing clinics and privacy were common. The majority (85%) of those eligible and unvaccinated at time of survey were willing to receive the vaccine.ConclusionIn this sample of STI clinic clients, vaccine uptake among eligible T/GBM was high in the initial weeks following a Mpox vaccination campaign. However, uptake was patterned on social gradients with lower uptake among T/GBM who may be less effectively engaged by available promotion channels. We recommend early, intentional and diverse engagement of T/GBM populations in Mpox and other targeted vaccination programs.

Dataset Information

A novel Bayesian approach to predicting reductions in HIV incidence following increased testing interventions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Vancouver, Canada.

Publications

A novel Bayesian approach to predicting reductions in HIV incidence following increased testing interventions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Vancouver, Canada.

Similar Datasets

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