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Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases.

ABSTRACT: Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission. A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmission risk factors. We modeled HIV epidemics among men having sex with men and generated phylogenies comparable to those that can be obtained from HIV surveillance data in the UK. Clustering and source attribution approaches were applied to evaluate their ability to identify patient attributes as transmission risk factors. We find that commonly used methods show a misleading association between cluster size or odds of clustering and covariates that are correlated with time since infection, regardless of their influence on transmission. Clustering methods usually have higher error rates and lower sensitivity than source attribution method for identifying transmission risk factors. But neither methods provide robust estimates of transmission risk ratios. Source attribution method can alleviate drawbacks from phylogenetic clustering but formal population genetic modeling may be required to estimate quantitative transmission risk factors.

SUBMITTER: Le Vu S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5910297 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases.

Le Vu Stéphane S Ratmann Oliver O Delpech Valerie V Brown Alison E AE Gill O Noel ON Tostevin Anna A Fraser Christophe C Volz Erik M EM

Epidemics 20171020

Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission. A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmissi ...[more]

PMID: 29089285

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Project description:Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia (E.) coli have been widely described as the cause of treatment failures in humans around the world. The origin of human infections with these microorganisms is discussed controversially and in most cases hard to identify. Since they pose a relevant risk to human health, it becomes crucial to understand their sources and the transmission pathways. In this study, we analyzed data from different studies in Germany and grouped ESBL-producing E. coli from different sources and human cases into subtypes based on their phenotypic and genotypic characteristics (ESBL-genotype, E. coli phylogenetic group and phenotypic antimicrobial resistance pattern). Then, a source attribution model was developed in order to attribute the human cases to the considered sources. The sources were from different animal species (cattle, pig, chicken, dog and horse) and also from patients with nosocomial infections. The human isolates were gathered from community cases which showed to be colonized with ESBL-producing E. coli. We used the attribution model first with only the animal sources (Approach A) and then additionally with the nosocomial infections (Approach B). We observed that all sources contributed to the human cases, nevertheless, isolates from nosocomial infections were more related to those from human cases than any of the other sources. We identified subtypes that were only detected in the considered animal species and others that were observed only in the human population. Some subtypes from the human cases could not be allocated to any of the sources from this study and were attributed to an unknown source. Our study emphasizes the importance of human-to-human transmission of ESBL-producing E. coli and the different role that pets, livestock and healthcare facilities may play in the transmission of these resistant bacteria. The developed source attribution model can be further used to monitor future trends. A One Health approach is necessary to develop source attribution models further to integrate also wildlife, environmental as well as food sources in addition to human and animal data.

Dataset Information

Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases.

Publications

Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases.

Similar Datasets

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