Dataset Information

Risk of suicide following an alcohol-related emergency hospital admission: An electronic cohort study of 2.8 million people.

ABSTRACT: Alcohol misuse is a well-known risk factor for suicide however, the relationship between alcohol-related hospital admission and subsequent risk of death from suicide is unknown. We aimed to determine the risk of death from suicide following emergency admission to hospital with an alcohol-related cause.We established an electronic cohort study of all 2,803,457 residents of Wales, UK, aged from 10 to under 100 years on 1 January 2006 with six years' follow-up. The outcome event was death from suicide defined as intentional self-harm (ICD-10 X60-84) or undetermined intent (Y10-34). The main exposure was an alcohol-related admission defined as a 'wholly attributable' ICD-10 alcohol code in the admission record. Admissions were coded for the presence or absence of co-existing psychiatric morbidity. The analysis was by Cox regression with adjustments for confounding variables within the dataset.During the study follow-up period, there were 15,546,355 person years at risk with 28,425 alcohol-related emergency admissions and 1562 suicides. 125 suicides followed an admission (144.6 per 100,000 person years), of which 11 (9%) occurred within 4 weeks of discharge. The overall adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for suicide following admission was 26.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 18.8 to 38.3), in men HR 9.83 (95% CI 7.91 to 12.2) and women HR 28.5 (95% CI 19.9 to 41.0). The risk of suicide remained substantial in subjects without known co-existing psychiatric morbidity: HR men 8.11 (95% CI 6.30 to 10.4) and women HR 24.0 (95% CI 15.5 to 37.3). The analysis was limited by the absence in datasets of potentially important confounding variables and the lack of information on alcohol-related harm and psychiatric morbidity in subjects not admitted to hospital.Emergency alcohol-related hospital admission is associated with an increased risk of suicide. Identifying individuals in hospital provides an opportunity for psychosocial assessment and suicide prevention of a targeted at-risk group before their discharge to the community.

SUBMITTER: Bowden B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5922531 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk of suicide following an alcohol-related emergency hospital admission: An electronic cohort study of 2.8 million people.

Bowden Bethan B John Ann A Trefan Laszlo L Morgan Jennifer J Farewell Daniel D Fone David D

PloS one 20180427 4

<h4>Objective</h4>Alcohol misuse is a well-known risk factor for suicide however, the relationship between alcohol-related hospital admission and subsequent risk of death from suicide is unknown. We aimed to determine the risk of death from suicide following emergency admission to hospital with an alcohol-related cause.<h4>Methods</h4>We established an electronic cohort study of all 2,803,457 residents of Wales, UK, aged from 10 to under 100 years on 1 January 2006 with six years' follow-up. The ...[more]

PMID: 29702655

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Project description:ObjectiveThe majority of suicide decedents have had contact with health services close to their death. Some of these contacts include admissions to hospitals for physical and mental health conditions, injury and intentional self-harm. This study aims to establish and quantify the risks of suicide following hospital admission for a range of mental and physical illnesses.MethodsA retrospective analysis was carried out on existing morbidity and mortality data in Victoria. Data was extracted from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset and the Victorian Suicide Register. Unplanned hospital admissions among adult patients (> = 15 years of age), discharged between 01 January 2011 and 31 December 2016 (2,430,154 admissions), were selected. Standardised Mortality Ratios were calculated for conditions with at least five linked suicides within one year of discharge from hospital.ResultsForty-three conditions defined at the three-digit level of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision, were associated with at least five subsequent suicides (within one year of hospital discharge); 14 physical illnesses, 5 symptoms, signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, 12 mental health conditions, and 12 types of injury and poisonings. The highest Standardised Mortality Ratios were for poisonings (range; 27.8 to 140.0) and intentional self-harm (78.8), followed by mental health conditions (range; 15.5 to 72.9), symptoms, signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings (range; 1.4 to 43.2) and physical illnesses (range; 0.7 to 4.9).ConclusionsHospital admissions related to mental health conditions and injury and poisonings including self-harm were associated with a greater risk of suicide than physical conditions. Mental health conditions such as depressive episodes, personality disorders and psychotic episodes, injuries caused by intentional-self-harm and poisonings by certain types of drugs, carbon monoxide and hormones such as insulin can be prioritised for targeting suicide prevention initiatives for persons discharged from hospitals.

Project description:IntroductionChildren and young people (CYP) are encouraged to increase time spent being physically active, especially in moderate and vigorous intensity pursuits. However, there is limited evidence on the prospective association of activity levels with injuries resulting in use of hospital services. We examined the relationship between objectively-measured physical activity (PA) and subsequent injuries resulting in hospital admissions or accident and emergency department (A&E) attendances, using linked electronic hospital records (EHR) from a nationally representative prospective cohort of CYP in Wales and Scotland.MethodsWe analysed accelerometer-based estimates of moderate to vigorous (MVPA) and vigorous PA (VPA) from 1,585 (777 [46%] boys) seven-year-old Millennium Cohort Study members, living in Wales or Scotland, whose parents consented to linkage of cohort records to EHRs up until their 14th birthday. Negative binomial regression models adjusted by potential individual, household and area-level confounders, were fitted to estimate associations between average daily minutes of MVPA, and VPA (in 10-minute increments), and number of injury-related hospital admissions and/or A&E attendances from age nine to 14 years.ResultsCYP spent a median of 59.5 and 18.1 minutes in MVPA and VPA/day respectively, with boys significantly more active than girls; 47.3% of children experienced at least one injury-related admission or A&E attendance during the study period. Rates of injury-related hospital admission and/or A&E attendance were positively associated with MVPA and VPA in boys but not in girls: respective adjusted incidence rate ratios (95% CI) for boys: 1.09 (1.01, 1.17) and 1.16 (1.00, 1.34), and for girls: 0.94 (0.86, 1.03) and 0.85 (0.69, 1.04).ConclusionBoys but not girls who engage in more intense PA at age seven years are at higher risk of injury-related hospital admission or A&E attendance when aged nine to 14 years than their less active peers. This may reflect gender differences in the type and associated risks of activities undertaken. EHRs can make a useful contribution to injury surveillance and prevention if routinely augmented with information on context and setting of the injuries sustained. Injury prevention initiatives should not discourage engagement in PA and outdoor play given their over-riding health and social benefits.

Project description:BackgroundThe Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network (CPCSSN) collects extensive data on primary care patients but it currently does not gather reliable information on outcomes in other settings. The objectives of this study were to link electronic medical record (EMR) data from Ontario patients in the CPCSSN with administrative data from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES), to assess the representativeness of the CPCSSN population, and to identify people with diabetes in the CPCSSN data and describe their emergency department (ED) visits and hospital admissions over a 2-year period (2010-2012) by HbA1c level.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study linking 2014 Ontario CPCSSN data with ICES administrative data and a retrospective cohort study using the 2014 data extraction linked with data from the Ontario health care registry, hospital discharge abstracts and a database of emergency department visits. Demographics of CPCSSN patients were compared with those of the Ontario population. Patients with a CPCSSN diagnosis of diabetes were compared by HbA1c category for ED visits, hospital admissions and diagnosis of diabetes-related complications.ResultsThe linkage rate was 99%. We identified 12 358 patients with diabetes, 2356 of whom were missing data on HbAIc, for a final sample of 10 002. Patients with diabetes had a mean age of 64 years. Those with a higher HbA1c were younger, more likely to be male, had a lower income, had more comorbidities and were more likely to live in rural or suburban areas than patients with a lower HbA1c. Over the study period 31.8% of patients had 1 or more ED visits and 13.7% had a hospital admission for a diabetes-related complication. Patients with HbA1c greater than 8 had significantly more hospital admissions, ED visits and diabetes-related complications than patients with a lower HbA1c .InterpretationThe linkage between EMR and administrative data was successful. In this study population, higher HbA1c values were associated with increased ED visits and hospital admissions, with an increasing gradient as HbA1c increased from less than 7% to greater than 8%.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:The authors sought to develop and validate models using electronic health records to predict suicide attempt and suicide death following an outpatient visit. METHOD:Across seven health systems, 2,960,929 patients age 13 or older (mean age, 46 years; 62% female) made 10,275,853 specialty mental health visits and 9,685,206 primary care visits with mental health diagnoses between Jan. 1, 2009, and June 30, 2015. Health system records and state death certificate data identified suicide attempts (N=24,133) and suicide deaths (N=1,240) over 90 days following each visit. Potential predictors included 313 demographic and clinical characteristics extracted from records for up to 5 years before each visit: prior suicide attempts, mental health and substance use diagnoses, medical diagnoses, psychiatric medications dispensed, inpatient or emergency department care, and routinely administered depression questionnaires. Logistic regression models predicting suicide attempt and death were developed using penalized LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) variable selection in a random sample of 65% of the visits and validated in the remaining 35%. RESULTS:Mental health specialty visits with risk scores in the top 5% accounted for 43% of subsequent suicide attempts and 48% of suicide deaths. Of patients scoring in the top 5%, 5.4% attempted suicide and 0.26% died by suicide within 90 days. C-statistics (equivalent to area under the curve) for prediction of suicide attempt and suicide death were 0.851 (95% CI=0.848, 0.853) and 0.861 (95% CI=0.848, 0.875), respectively. Primary care visits with scores in the top 5% accounted for 48% of subsequent suicide attempts and 43% of suicide deaths. C-statistics for prediction of suicide attempt and suicide death were 0.853 (95% CI=0.849, 0.857) and 0.833 (95% CI=0.813, 0.853), respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Prediction models incorporating both health record data and responses to self-report questionnaires substantially outperform existing suicide risk prediction tools.

Project description:ObjectiveTo predict hospital admission at the time of ED triage using patient history in addition to information collected at triage.MethodsThis retrospective study included all adult ED visits between March 2014 and July 2017 from one academic and two community emergency rooms that resulted in either admission or discharge. A total of 972 variables were extracted per patient visit. Samples were randomly partitioned into training (80%), validation (10%), and test (10%) sets. We trained a series of nine binary classifiers using logistic regression (LR), gradient boosting (XGBoost), and deep neural networks (DNN) on three dataset types: one using only triage information, one using only patient history, and one using the full set of variables. Next, we tested the potential benefit of additional training samples by training models on increasing fractions of our data. Lastly, variables of importance were identified using information gain as a metric to create a low-dimensional model.ResultsA total of 560,486 patient visits were included in the study, with an overall admission risk of 29.7%. Models trained on triage information yielded a test AUC of 0.87 for LR (95% CI 0.86-0.87), 0.87 for XGBoost (95% CI 0.87-0.88) and 0.87 for DNN (95% CI 0.87-0.88). Models trained on patient history yielded an AUC of 0.86 for LR (95% CI 0.86-0.87), 0.87 for XGBoost (95% CI 0.87-0.87) and 0.87 for DNN (95% CI 0.87-0.88). Models trained on the full set of variables yielded an AUC of 0.91 for LR (95% CI 0.91-0.91), 0.92 for XGBoost (95% CI 0.92-0.93) and 0.92 for DNN (95% CI 0.92-0.92). All algorithms reached maximum performance at 50% of the training set or less. A low-dimensional XGBoost model built on ESI level, outpatient medication counts, demographics, and hospital usage statistics yielded an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI 0.91-0.91).ConclusionMachine learning can robustly predict hospital admission using triage information and patient history. The addition of historical information improves predictive performance significantly compared to using triage information alone, highlighting the need to incorporate these variables into prediction models.

Dataset Information

Risk of suicide following an alcohol-related emergency hospital admission: An electronic cohort study of 2.8 million people.

Publications

Risk of suicide following an alcohol-related emergency hospital admission: An electronic cohort study of 2.8 million people.

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