Browse
Submit Data
Databases
API
Help

Dataset Information

0 Views

0 Connections

0 Citations

0 Reanalyses

0 Downloads

Omics score: 0

Limits on determining the skill of North Atlantic Ocean decadal predictions.

ABSTRACT: The northern North Atlantic is important globally both through its impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and through widespread atmospheric teleconnections. The region has been shown to be potentially predictable a decade ahead with the skill of decadal predictions assessed against reanalyses of the ocean state. Here, we show that the prediction skill in this region is strongly dependent on the choice of reanalysis used for validation, and describe the causes. Multiannual skill in key metrics such as Labrador Sea density and the AMOC depends on more than simply the choice of the prediction model. Instead, this skill is related to the similarity between the nature of interannual density variability in the underlying climate model and the chosen reanalysis. The climate models used in these decadal predictions are also used in climate projections, which raises questions about the sensitivity of these projections to the models' innate North Atlantic density variability.

SUBMITTER: Menary MB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5923258 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Json Xml

Publications

Limits on determining the skill of North Atlantic Ocean decadal predictions.

Menary Matthew B MB Hermanson Leon L

Nature communications 20180427 1

The northern North Atlantic is important globally both through its impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and through widespread atmospheric teleconnections. The region has been shown to be potentially predictable a decade ahead with the skill of decadal predictions assessed against reanalyses of the ocean state. Here, we show that the prediction skill in this region is strongly dependent on the choice of reanalysis used for validation, and describe the causes. Multiann ...[more]

PMID: 29703895

Similar Datasets

Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake.

Project description:As a major CO2 sink, the North Atlantic, especially its subpolar gyre region, is essential for the global carbon cycle. Decadal fluctuations of CO2 uptake in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region are associated with the evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, ocean mixing and sea surface temperature anomalies. While variations in the physical state of the ocean can be predicted several years in advance by initialization of Earth system models, predictability of CO2 uptake has remained unexplored. Here we investigate the predictability of CO2 uptake variations by initialization of the MPI-ESM decadal prediction system. We find large multi-year variability in oceanic CO2 uptake and demonstrate that its potential predictive skill in the western subpolar gyre region is up to 4-7 years. The predictive skill is mainly maintained in winter and is attributed to the improved physical state of the ocean.

| S-EPMC4820896 | biostudies-other

North Atlantic Ocean Circulation and Decadal Sea Level Change During the Altimetry Era.

Project description:Regional sea-level rise is characterized by decadal acceleration and deceleration periods that typically stem from oceanic climate variability. Here, we investigate decadal sea-level trends during the altimetry era and pin down the associated ocean circulation changes. We find that decadal subpolar gyre cooling (warming), strengthening (weakening), widening (shrinking) since the mid-2000s (early 1990s) resulted in negative (positive) sea level trends of -7.1?mm/yr?±?1.3?mm/yr (3.9?mm/yr?±?1.5?mm/yr). These large-scale changes further coincide with steric sea-level trends, and are driven by decadal-scale ocean circulation variability. Sea level on the European shelf, however, is found to correlate well with along-slope winds (R?=?0.78), suggesting it plays a central role in driving the associated low-frequency dynamic sea level variability. Furthermore, when the North Atlantic is in a cooling (warming) period, the winds along the eastern boundary are predominantly from the North (South), which jointly drive a slowdown (rapid increase) in shelf and coastal sea level rise. Understanding the mechanisms that produce these connections may be critical for interpreting future regional sea-level trends.

| S-EPMC6355806 | biostudies-other

Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability.

Project description:Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.

| S-EPMC4579852 | biostudies-literature

Decadal acidification in the water masses of the Atlantic Ocean.

Project description:Global ocean acidification is caused primarily by the ocean's uptake of CO2 as a consequence of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. We present observations of the oceanic decrease in pH at the basin scale (50 °S-36 °N) for the Atlantic Ocean over two decades (1993-2013). Changes in pH associated with the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 (ΔpHCant) and with variations caused by biological activity and ocean circulation (ΔpHNat) are evaluated for different water masses. Output from an Institut Pierre Simon Laplace climate model is used to place the results into a longer-term perspective and to elucidate the mechanisms responsible for pH change. The largest decreases in pH (∆pH) were observed in central, mode, and intermediate waters, with a maximum ΔpH value in South Atlantic Central Waters of -0.042 ± 0.003. The ΔpH trended toward zero in deep and bottom waters. Observations and model results show that pH changes generally are dominated by the anthropogenic component, which accounts for rates between -0.0015 and -0.0020/y in the central waters. The anthropogenic and natural components are of the same order of magnitude and reinforce one another in mode and intermediate waters over the time period. Large negative ΔpHNat values observed in mode and intermediate waters are driven primarily by changes in CO2 content and are consistent with (i) a poleward shift of the formation region during the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode in the South Atlantic and (ii) an increase in the rate of the water mass formation in the North Atlantic.

| S-EPMC4538673 | biostudies-literature

Role of subsurface ocean in decadal climate predictability over the South Atlantic.

Project description:Decadal climate predictability in the South Atlantic is explored by performing reforecast experiments using a coupled general circulation model with two initialization schemes; one is assimilated with observed sea surface temperature (SST) only, and the other is additionally assimilated with observed subsurface ocean temperature and salinity. The South Atlantic is known to undergo decadal variability exhibiting a meridional dipole of SST anomalies through variations in the subtropical high and ocean heat transport. Decadal reforecast experiments in which only the model SST is initialized with the observation do not predict well the observed decadal SST variability in the South Atlantic, while the other experiments in which the model SST and subsurface ocean are initialized with the observation skillfully predict the observed decadal SST variability, particularly in the Southeast Atlantic. In-depth analysis of upper-ocean heat content reveals that a significant improvement of zonal heat transport in the Southeast Atlantic leads to skillful prediction of decadal SST variability there. These results demonstrate potential roles of subsurface ocean assimilation in the skillful prediction of decadal climate variability over the South Atlantic.

| S-EPMC5986776 | biostudies-literature

Heat content variability in the North Atlantic Ocean in ocean reanalyses.

Project description:Warming of the North Atlantic Ocean from the 1950s to 2012 is analyzed on neutral density surfaces and vertical levels in the upper 2000?m. Three reanalyses and two observational data sets are compared. The net gain of 5?×?1022?J in the upper 2000?m is roughly 30% of the global ocean warming over this period. Upper ocean heat content (OHC) is dominated in most regions by heat transport convergence without widespread changes in the potential temperature/salinity relation. The heat convergence is associated with sinking of midthermocline isopycnals, with maximum sinking occurring at potential densities ?0?=?26.4-27.3, which contain subtropical mode waters. Water masses lighter than ?0?=?27.3 accumulate heat by increasing their volume, while heavier waters lose heat by decreasing their volume. Spatially, the OHC trend is nonuniform: the low latitudes, 0-30°N are warming steadily while large multidecadal variability occurs at latitudes 30-65°N.Key pointsHeat content change dominated by heat transport convergence Due to widespread sinking trend of midthermocline isopycnals over 50+ years.

| S-EPMC4681455 | biostudies-literature

Increased Indian Ocean-North Atlantic Ocean warming chain under greenhouse warming.

Project description:Over the past half a century, both the Indian Ocean (IO) and the North Atlantic Ocean (NA) exhibit strong warming trends like a global mean surface temperature (SST). Here, we show that not only simply as a result of increased greenhouse gases, but the IO-NA interaction through atmospheric teleconnection boosts up their warming trends. Climate model simulations demonstrate that the IO warming increases the NA SST by enhancing the longwave radiation through atmospheric teleconnection, subsequently, the warmer NA SST-induced atmospheric teleconnection leads to IO warming by reducing evaporative cooling with weakened surface winds. This two-way interaction (i.e., IO-NA warming chain) acts as positive feedback that reinforces warming over both ocean basins. The Pacific Ocean is partly involved in this warming chain as a modulator in an interdecadal timescale. These results highlight the importance of understanding ocean-basin interactions that may provide a more accurate future projection of warming.

| S-EPMC9270466 | biostudies-literature

A decadal perspective on north water microbial eukaryotes as Arctic Ocean sentinels.

Project description:The North Water region, between Greenland and Ellesmere Island, with high populations of marine birds and mammals, is an Arctic icon. Due to climate related changes, seasonal patterns in water column primary production are changing but the implications for the planktonic microbial eukaryote communities that support the ecosystem are unknown. Here we report microbial community phenology in samples collected over 12 years (2005-2018) from July to October and analysed using high throughput 18S rRNA V4 amplicon sequencing. Community composition was tied to seasonality with summer communities more variable than distinct October communities. In summer, sentinel pan-Arctic species, including a diatom in the Chaetoceros socialis-gelidus complex and the picochlorophyte Micromonas polaris dominated phytoplankton and were summer specialists. In autumn, uncultured undescribed open water dinoflagellates were favored, and their ubiquity suggests they are sentinels of arctic autumn conditions. Despite the input of nutrients into surface waters, autumn chlorophyll concentrations remained low, refuting projected scenarios that longer ice-free seasons are synonymous with high autumn production and a diatom dominated bloom. Overall, the summer sentinel microbial taxa are persisting, and a subset oceanic dinoflagellate should be monitored for possible ecosystem shifts as later autumn ice formation becomes prevalent elsewhere.

| S-EPMC8052464 | biostudies-literature

Role of thiosulfate as a source of energy in the bathypelagic North Atlantic Ocean

Project description:The available energy and carbon sources for prokaryotes in the deep ocean remain still largely enigmatic. Reduced sulfur compounds, such as thiosulfate, are a potential energy source for both auto- and heterotrophic marine prokaryotes. Shipboard experiments performed in the North Atlantic using Labrador Sea Water (~2000 m depth) amended with thiosulfate led to an enhanced prokaryotic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) fixation.

2021-04-30 | GSE136729 | GEO

Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean.

Project description:Tropical cyclones do not form easily near the equator but can intensify rapidly, leaving little time for preparation. We investigate the number of near-equatorial (originating between 5°N and 11°N) tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean during post-monsoon season (October to December) over the past 60 years. The study reveals a marked 43% decline in the number of such cyclones in recent decades (1981-2010) compared to earlier (1951-1980). Here, we show this decline in tropical cyclone frequency is primarily due to the weakened low-level vorticity modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and increased vertical wind shear. In the presence of low-latitude basin-wide warming and a favorable phase of the PDO, both the intensity and frequency of such cyclones are expected to increase. Such dramatic and unique changes in tropical cyclonic activity due to the interplay between natural variability and climate change call for appropriate planning and mitigation strategies.

| S-EPMC10462712 | biostudies-literature

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

OmicsDI is an Elixir interoperability service. Learn more ›

Tweets

OmicsDI Databases

PRIDE
PeptideAtlas
MassIVE
JPOST Repository
Physiome Model Repository

EGA
EVA
ENA
LINCS
PAXDB
Cell Collective

MetaboLights
Metabolomics Workbench
MetabolomeExpress
GNPS
BioModels
FAIRDOMHub

ArrayExpress
dbGaP
ExpressionAtlas
GEO
NODE

Information

Databases
Help
API
Contact us
Code on GitHub
Terms of use
Submit Data