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Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China.

ABSTRACT: The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China, and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region.A community-based, cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September 2016. Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections, and imported cases were identified in each village (between January 2013 and September 2016). A stochastic simulation model (SSM) was used to test the relationship between population mobility and malaria vulnerability, according to the mechanisms of malaria importation.Thirty-two imported cases were identified in the five villages, with a 4-year average of 1 case/year (range: 0-5 cases/year). No parasites were detected in the 353 blood samples from 2016. The median density of malaria vulnerability was 0.012 (range: 0.000-0.033). The average proportion of mobile members of the study population was 32.56% (range: 28.38-71.95%). Most mobile individuals lived indoors at night with mosquito protection. The SSM model fit the investigated data (?2?=?0.487, P?=?0.485). The average probability of infection in the members of the population that moved to Myanmar was 0.011 (range: 0.0048-0.1585). The values for simulated vulnerability increased with greater population mobility in each village.A high proportion of population mobility was associated with greater malaria vulnerability in the China-Myanmar border region. Mobile population-specific measures should be used to decrease the risk of malaria re-establishment in China.

SUBMITTER: Chen TM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5924679 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China.

Chen Tian-Mu TM Zhang Shao-Sen SS Feng Jun J Xia Zhi-Gui ZG Luo Chun-Hai CH Zeng Xu-Can XC Guo Xiang-Rui XR Lin Zu-Rui ZR Zhou Hong-Ning HN Zhou Shui-Sen SS

Infectious diseases of poverty 20180429 1

<h4>Background</h4>The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China, and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region.<h4>Methods</h4>A community-based, cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September 2016. Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections, and imported cases were identified in each village (between ...[more]

PMID: 29704895

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Project description:Yunnan Province, China is thought to be the original source of biovar Orientalis of Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of the third plague pandemic that has spread globally since the end of the 19th century. Although encompassing a large area of natural plague foci, Y. pestis strains have rarely been found in live rodents during surveillance in Yunnan, and most isolates are from rodent corpses and their fleas. In 2017, 10 Y. pestis strains were isolated from seven live rodents and three fleas in Heqing County (HQ) of Yunnan. These strains were supposed to have low virulence to local rodents Eothenomys miletus and Apodemus chevrieri because the rodents were healthy and no dead animals were found in surrounding areas, as had occurred in previous epizootic disease. We performed microscopic and biochemical examinations of the isolates,and compared their whole-genome sequences and transcriptome with those of 10 high virulence Y. pestis strains that were isolated from the adjacent city (Lijiang). We analyzed the phenotypic, genomic, and transcriptomic characteristics of live rodent isolates. The isolates formed a previously undefined monophyletic branch of Y. pestis that was named 1.IN5. Six SNPs, two indels, and one copy number variation were detected between live rodent isolates and the high virulence neighbors. No obvious functional consequence of these variations was found according to the known annotation information. Among the genes that were differentially expressed between the live rodent isolates and their high virulence neighbors, we detected five iron transfer-related genes that were significantly up-regulated in live rodent isolates compared with high virulence isolates (|log2 (FC) | >1, p.adjust <0.05), indicating these genes may be related to the low-virulence phenotype. The novel genotype of Y. pestis reported here provides further insights into the evolution and spread of plague as well as clues that may help to decipher the virulence mechanism of this notorious pathogen.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Cross-border malaria in Laiza City of Myanmar seriously affected Yingjiang County of China and compromised reaching the goal of malaria elimination by 2020. Since 2017, a pilot project on 3 + 1 strategy of joint cross-border malaria prevention and control was carried out for building a malaria buffer in these border areas. Here, 3 were the three preventive lines in China where different focalized approaches of malaria elimination were applied and + 1 was a defined border area in Myanmar where the integrated measures of malaria control were adopted. METHODS:A 5-year retrospective analysis (2015 to 2019) was conducted that included case detection, parasite prevalence and vector surveillance. Descriptive statistics was used and the incidence or rates were compared. The annual parasite incidence and the parasite prevalence rate in + 1 area of Myanmar, the annual importation rate in Yingjiang County of China and the density of An. minimus were statistically significant indictors to assess the effectiveness of the 3 + 1 strategy. RESULTS:In + 1 area of Myanmar from 2015 to 2019, the averaged annual parasite incidence was (59.11 ± 40.73)/1000 and Plasmodium vivax accounted for 96.27% of the total confirmed cases. After the pilot project, the annual parasite incidence dropped 89% from 104.77/1000 in 2016 to 12.18/1000 in 2019, the microscopic parasite prevalence rate dropped 100% from 0.34% in 2017 to zero in 2019 and the averaged density of An. Minimus per trap-night dropped 93% from 1.92 in June to 0.13 in September. The submicroscopic parasite prevalence rate increased from 1.15% in 2017 to 1.66% in 2019 without significant difference between the two surveys (P = 0.084). In Yingjiang County of China, neither indigenous nor introduced case was reported and 100% cases were imported from Myanmar since 2017. The averaged annual importation rate from 2015 to 2019 was (0.47 ± 0.15)/1000. After the pilot project, the annual importation rate dropped from 0.59/1000 in 2016 to 0.28/1000 in 2019 with an overall reduction of 53% in the whole county. The reduction was 67% (57.63/1000 to 18.01/1000) in the first preventive line, 52% (0.20/1000 to 0.10/1000) in the second preventive line and 36% (0.32/1000 to 0.22/1000) in the third preventive line. The averaged density of An. Minimus per trap-night in the first preventive line dropped 94% from 2.55 in June to 0.14 in September, without significant difference from that of + 1 area of Myanmar (Z value = - 1.18, P value = 0.24). CONCLUSION:The pilot project on 3 + 1 strategy has been significantly effective in the study areas and a buffer zone of border malaria was successfully established between Laiza City of Myanmar and Yingjiang County of China.

Dataset Information

Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China.

Publications

Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China.

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