Cholera Epidemic in South Sudan and Uganda and Need for International Collaboration in Cholera Control.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Abubakar A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5938777 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundBetween 2014 and 2017, successive cholera epidemics occurred in South Sudan within the context of civil war, population displacement, flooding, and drought. We aim to describe the spatiotemporal and molecular features of the three distinct epidemic waves and explore the role of vaccination campaigns, precipitation, and population movement in shaping cholera spread in this complex setting.MethodsIn this descriptive epidemiological study, we analysed cholera linelist data to describe the spatiotemporal progression of the epidemics. We placed whole-genome sequence data from pandemic Vibrio cholerae collected throughout these epidemics into the global phylogenetic context. Using whole-genome sequence data in combination with other molecular attributes, we characterise the relatedness of strains circulating in each wave and the region. We investigated the association of rainfall and the instantaneous basic reproduction number using distributed lag non-linear models, compared county-level attack rates between those with early and late reactive vaccination campaigns, and explored the consistency of the spatial patterns of displacement and suspected cholera case reports.FindingsThe 2014 (6389 cases) and 2015 (1818 cases) cholera epidemics in South Sudan remained spatially limited whereas the 2016-17 epidemic (20?438 cases) spread among settlements along the Nile river. Initial cases of each epidemic were reported in or around Juba soon after the start of the rainy season, but we found no evidence that rainfall modulated transmission during each epidemic. All isolates analysed had similar genotypic and phenotypic characteristics, closely related to sequences from Uganda and Democratic Republic of the Congo. Large-scale population movements between counties of South Sudan with cholera outbreaks were consistent with the spatial distribution of cases. 21 of 26 vaccination campaigns occurred during or after the county-level epidemic peak. Counties vaccinated on or after the peak incidence week had 2·2 times (95% CI 2·1-2·3) higher attack rates than those where vaccination occurred before the peak.InterpretationPandemic V cholerae of the same clonal origin was isolated throughout the study period despite interepidemic periods of no reported cases. Although the complex emergency in South Sudan probably shaped some of the observed spatial and temporal patterns of cases, the full scope of transmission determinants remains unclear. Timely and well targeted use of vaccines can reduce the burden of cholera; however, rapid vaccine deployment in complex emergencies remains challenging.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Project description:Following mass population displacements in South Sudan, preventive cholera vaccination campaigns were conducted in displaced persons camps before a 2014 cholera outbreak. We compare cholera transmission in vaccinated and unvaccinated areas and show vaccination likely halted transmission within vaccinated areas, illustrating the potential for oral cholera vaccine to stop cholera transmission in vulnerable populations.
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Project description:Despite recent large-scale cholera outbreaks, little is known about the immunogenicity of oral cholera vaccines (OCV) in African populations, particularly among those at highest cholera risk. During a 2015 preemptive OCV campaign among internally displaced persons in South Sudan, a year after a large cholera outbreak, we enrolled 37 young children (1-5 years old), 67 older children (6-17 years old) and 101 adults (?18 years old), who received two doses of OCV (Shanchol) spaced approximately 3 weeks apart. Cholera-specific antibody responses were determined at days 0, 21 and 35 post-immunization. High baseline vibriocidal titers (>80) were observed in 21% of the participants, suggesting recent cholera exposure or vaccination. Among those with titers ?80, 90% young children, 73% older children and 72% adults seroconverted (?4 fold titer rise) after the 1st OCV dose; with no additional seroconversion after the 2nd dose. Post-vaccination immunological endpoints did not differ across age groups. Our results indicate Shanchol was immunogenic in this vulnerable population and that a single dose alone may be sufficient to achieve similar short-term immunological responses to the currently licensed two-dose regimen. While we found no evidence of differential response by age, further immunologic and epidemiologic studies are needed.
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Project description:In 2012, a female wildlife biologist experienced fever, malaise, headache, generalized myalgia and arthralgia, neck stiffness, and a sore throat shortly after returning to the United States from a 6-week field expedition to South Sudan and Uganda. She was hospitalized, after which a maculopapular rash developed and became confluent. When the patient was discharged from the hospital on day 14, arthralgia and myalgia had improved, oropharynx ulcerations had healed, the rash had resolved without desquamation, and blood counts and hepatic enzyme levels were returning to reference levels. After several known suspect pathogens were ruled out as the cause of her illness, deep sequencing and metagenomics analysis revealed a novel paramyxovirus related to rubula-like viruses isolated from fruit bats.
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Project description:BackgroundOfficial projections of the cholera epidemic in Haiti have not incorporated existing disease trends or patterns of transmission, and proposed interventions have been debated without comparative estimates of their effect. We used a mathematical model of the epidemic to provide projections of future morbidity and mortality, and to produce comparative estimates of the effects of proposed interventions.MethodsWe designed mathematical models of cholera transmission based on existing models and fitted them to incidence data reported in Haiti for each province from Oct 31, 2010, to Jan 24, 2011. We then simulated future epidemic trajectories from March 1 to Nov 30, 2011, to estimate the effect of clean water, vaccination, and enhanced antibiotic distribution programmes.FindingsWe project 779,000 cases of cholera in Haiti (95% CI 599,000-914,000) and 11,100 deaths (7300-17,400) between March 1 and Nov 30, 2011. We expect that a 1% per week reduction in consumption of contaminated water would avert 105,000 cases (88,000-116,000) and 1500 deaths (1100-2300). We predict that the vaccination of 10% of the population, from March 1, will avert 63,000 cases (48,000-78,000) and 900 deaths (600-1500). The proposed extension of the use of antibiotics to all patients with severe dehydration and half of patients with moderate dehydration is expected to avert 9000 cases (8000-10,000) and 1300 deaths (900-2000).InterpretationA decline in cholera prevalence in early 2011 is part of the natural course of the epidemic, and should not be interpreted as indicative of successful intervention. Substantially more cases of cholera are expected than official estimates used for resource allocation. Combined, clean water provision, vaccination, and expanded access to antibiotics might avert thousands of deaths.FundingNational Institutes of Health.
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Project description:Upon the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005, the Republic of South Sudan (RSS) has faced a lot of challenges, such as a lack of infrastructure, human resources and an enormous burden of vector borne diseases including malaria. While a national malaria strategic plan 2006-2011 was developed, the vector control component has remained relatively weak. The strategy endorses the distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) as the frontline intervention with other interventions recommended only when technical and institutional capacity is available. In 2006, a draft integrated vector management (IVM) strategic plan 2007-2012 was developed but never implemented, resulting in minimal coordination, implementation and coverage of malaria vector control tools including their inherent impact. To address this challenge, the vector control team of the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) is being strengthened. With the objective of building national capacity and technical collaboration for effective implementation of the IVM strategy, a national malaria vector control conference was held from 15-17th October 2012 in Juba. A range of NMCP partners, state ministries, acadaemia, private sector, national and international non-governmental organizations, including regional and global policymakers attended the meeting. The conference represented a major milestone and made recommendations revolving around the five key elements of the IVM approach. The meeting endorsed that vector control efforts in RSS be augmented with other interventions within the confines of the IVM strategy as a national approach, with strong adherence to its key elements.
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Project description:Two large outbreaks of Ebola hemorrhagic fever occurred in Uganda in 2000 and 2007. In May 2011, we identified a single case of Sudan Ebola virus disease in Luwero District. The establishment of a permanent in-country laboratory and cooperation between international public health entities facilitated rapid outbreak response and control activities.
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Project description:Lactase persistence (LP) is a well-studied example of a Mendelian trait under selection in some human groups due to gene-culture co-evolution. We investigated the frequencies of genetic variants linked to LP in Sudanese and South Sudanese populations. These populations have diverse subsistence patterns, and some are dependent on milk to various extents, not only from cows, but also from other livestock such as camels and goats. We sequenced a 316bp region involved in regulating the expression of the LCT gene on chromosome 2, which encompasses five polymorphisms that have been associated with LP. Pastoralist populations showed a higher frequency of LP-associated alleles compared to non-pastoralist groups, hinting at positive selection also among northeast African pastoralists. Among the LP variants, the -14009:G variant occurs at the highest frequency among the investigated populations, followed by the -13915:G variant, which is likely of Middle Eastern origin, consistent with Middle Eastern gene-flow to the Sudanese populations. There was no incidence of the 'East African' LP allele (-14010:C) in the Sudanese and South Sudanese groups, and only one heterozygous individual for the 'European' LP allele (-13910:T), suggesting limited recent admixture from these geographic regions. The Beja population of the Beni Amer show three different LPvariants at substantial and similar levels, resulting in one of the greatest aggregation of LPvariants among all populations across the world.
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Project description:The 2010 cholera epidemic in Haiti was one of the largest cholera epidemics ever recorded. To estimate the magnitude of the death toll during the first wave of the epidemic, we retrospectively conducted surveys at 4 sites in the northern part of Haiti. Overall, 70,903 participants were included; at all sites, the crude mortality rates (19.1-35.4 deaths/1,000 person-years) were higher than the expected baseline mortality rate for Haiti (9 deaths/1,000 person-years). This finding represents an excess of 3,406 deaths (2.9-fold increase) for the 4.4% of the Haiti population covered by these surveys, suggesting a substantially higher cholera mortality rate than previously reported.
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