Dataset Information

Model-based and Model-free Machine Learning Techniques for Diagnostic Prediction and Classification of Clinical Outcomes in Parkinson's Disease.

ABSTRACT: In this study, we apply a multidisciplinary approach to investigate falls in PD patients using clinical, demographic and neuroimaging data from two independent initiatives (University of Michigan and Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center). Using machine learning techniques, we construct predictive models to discriminate fallers and non-fallers. Through controlled feature selection, we identified the most salient predictors of patient falls including gait speed, Hoehn and Yahr stage, postural instability and gait difficulty-related measurements. The model-based and model-free analytical methods we employed included logistic regression, random forests, support vector machines, and XGboost. The reliability of the forecasts was assessed by internal statistical (5-fold) cross validation as well as by external out-of-bag validation. Four specific challenges were addressed in the study: Challenge 1, develop a protocol for harmonizing and aggregating complex, multisource, and multi-site Parkinson's disease data; Challenge 2, identify salient predictive features associated with specific clinical traits, e.g., patient falls; Challenge 3, forecast patient falls and evaluate the classification performance; and Challenge 4, predict tremor dominance (TD) vs. posture instability and gait difficulty (PIGD). Our findings suggest that, compared to other approaches, model-free machine learning based techniques provide a more reliable clinical outcome forecasting of falls in Parkinson's patients, for example, with a classification accuracy of about 70-80%.

SUBMITTER: Gao C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5940671 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Model-based and Model-free Machine Learning Techniques for Diagnostic Prediction and Classification of Clinical Outcomes in Parkinson's Disease.

Gao Chao C Sun Hanbo H Wang Tuo T Tang Ming M Bohnen Nicolaas I NI Müller Martijn L T M MLTM Herman Talia T Giladi Nir N Kalinin Alexandr A Spino Cathie C Dauer William W Hausdorff Jeffrey M JM Dinov Ivo D ID

Scientific reports 20180508 1

In this study, we apply a multidisciplinary approach to investigate falls in PD patients using clinical, demographic and neuroimaging data from two independent initiatives (University of Michigan and Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center). Using machine learning techniques, we construct predictive models to discriminate fallers and non-fallers. Through controlled feature selection, we identified the most salient predictors of patient falls including gait speed, Hoehn and Yahr stage, postural instabil ...[more]

PMID: 29740058

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Project description:Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a complex progressive neurodegenerative disorder with an estimated prevalence of about 5 per 100,000 people in the United States. In this study, the ALS disease progression is measured by the change of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS) score over time. The study aims to provide clinical decision support for timely forecasting of the ALS trajectory as well as accurate and reproducible computable phenotypic clustering of participants. Patient data are extracted from DREAM-Phil Bowen ALS Prediction Prize4Life Challenge data, most of which are from the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials Database (PRO-ACT) archive. We employed model-based and model-free machine-learning methods to predict the change of the ALSFRS score over time. Using training and testing data we quantified and compared the performance of different techniques. We also used unsupervised machine learning methods to cluster the patients into separate computable phenotypes and interpret the derived subcohorts. Direct prediction of univariate clinical outcomes based on model-based (linear models) or model-free (machine learning based techniques - random forest and Bayesian adaptive regression trees) was only moderately successful. The correlation coefficients between clinically observed changes in ALSFRS scores relative to the model-based/model-free predicted counterparts were 0.427 (random forest) and 0.545(BART). The reliability of these results were assessed using internal statistical cross validation and well as external data validation. Unsupervised clustering generated very reliable and consistent partitions of the patient cohort into four computable phenotypic subgroups. These clusters were explicated by identifying specific salient clinical features included in the PRO-ACT archive that discriminate between the derived subcohorts. There are differences between alternative analytical methods in forecasting specific clinical phenotypes. Although predicting univariate clinical outcomes may be challenging, our results suggest that modern data science strategies are useful in clustering patients and generating evidence-based ALS hypotheses about complex interactions of multivariate factors. Predicting univariate clinical outcomes using the PRO-ACT data yields only marginal accuracy (about 70%). However, unsupervised clustering of participants into sub-groups generates stable, reliable and consistent (exceeding 95%) computable phenotypes whose explication requires interpretation of multivariate sets of features. HIGHLIGHTS: • Used a large ALS data archive of 8,000 patients consisting of 3 million records, including 200 clinical features tracked over 12 months. • Employed model-based and model-free methods to predict ALSFRS changes over time, cluster patients into cohorts, and derive computable phenotypes. • Research findings include stable, reliable, and consistent (95%) patient stratification into computable phenotypes. However, clinical explication of the results requires interpretation of multivariate information. Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

Project description:BackgroundParkinson's disease is the second most common neurodegenerative disease in the world. However, current diagnostic methods are still limited, and available treatments can only mitigate the symptoms of the disease, not reverse it at the root. The immune function has been identified as playing a role in PD, but the exact mechanism is unknown. This study aimed to search for potential immune-related hub genes in Parkinson's disease, find relevant immune infiltration patterns, and develop a categorical diagnostic model.MethodsWe downloaded the GSE8397 dataset from the GEO database, which contains gene expression microarray data for 15 healthy human SN samples and 24 PD patient SN samples. Screening for PD-related DEGs using WGCNA and differential expression analysis. These PD-related DEGs were analyzed for GO and KEGG enrichment. Subsequently, hub genes (dld, dlk1, iars and ttd19) were screened by LASSO and mSVM-RFE machine learning algorithms. We used the ssGSEA algorithm to calculate and evaluate the differences in nigrostriatal immune cell types in the GSE8397 dataset. The association between dld, dlk1, iars and ttc19 and 28 immune cells was investigated. Using the GSEA and GSVA algorithms, we analyzed the biological functions associated with immune-related hub genes. Establishment of a ceRNA regulatory network for immune-related hub genes. Finally, a logistic regression model was used to develop a PD classification diagnostic model, and the accuracy of the model was verified in three independent data sets. The three independent datasets are GES49036 (containing 8 healthy human nigrostriatal tissue samples and 15 PD patient nigrostriatal tissue samples), GSE20292 (containing 18 healthy human nigrostriatal tissue samples and 11 PD patient nigrostriatal tissue samples) and GSE7621 (containing 9 healthy human nigrostriatal tissue samples and 16 PD patient nigrostriatal tissue samples).ResultsUltimately, we screened for four immune-related Parkinson's disease hub genes. Among them, the AUC values of dlk1, dld and ttc19 in GSE8397 and three other independent external datasets were all greater than 0.7, indicating that these three genes have a certain level of accuracy. The iars gene had an AUC value greater than 0.7 in GES8397 and one independent external data while the AUC values in the other two independent external data sets ranged between 0.5 and 0.7. These results suggest that iars also has some research value. We successfully constructed a categorical diagnostic model based on these four immune-related Parkinson's disease hub genes, and the AUC values of the joint diagnostic model were greater than 0.9 in both GSE8397 and three independent external datasets. These results indicate that the categorical diagnostic model has a good ability to distinguish between healthy individuals and Parkinson's disease patients. In addition, ceRNA networks reveal complex regulatory relationships based on immune-related hub genes.ConclusionIn this study, four immune-related PD hub genes (dld, dlk1, iars and ttd19) were obtained. A reliable diagnostic model for PD classification was developed. This study provides algorithmic-level support to explore the immune-related mechanisms of PD and the prediction of immune-related drug targets.

Dataset Information

Model-based and Model-free Machine Learning Techniques for Diagnostic Prediction and Classification of Clinical Outcomes in Parkinson's Disease.

Publications

Model-based and Model-free Machine Learning Techniques for Diagnostic Prediction and Classification of Clinical Outcomes in Parkinson's Disease.

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