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Risk Assessment for Parents Who Suspect Their Child Has Autism Spectrum Disorder: Machine Learning Approach.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Parents are likely to seek Web-based communities to verify their suspicions of autism spectrum disorder markers in their child. Automated tools support human decisions in many domains and could therefore potentially support concerned parents. OBJECTIVE:The objective of this study was to test the feasibility of assessing autism spectrum disorder risk in parental concerns from Web-based sources, using automated text analysis tools and minimal standard questioning. METHODS:Participants were 115 parents with concerns regarding their child's social-communication development. Children were 16- to 30-months old, and 57.4% (66/115) had a family history of autism spectrum disorder. Parents reported their concerns online, and completed an autism spectrum disorder-specific screener, the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers-Revised, with Follow-up (M-CHAT-R/F), and a broad developmental screener, the Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ). An algorithm predicted autism spectrum disorder risk using a combination of the parent's text and a single screening question, selected by the algorithm to enhance prediction accuracy. RESULTS:Screening measures identified 58% (67/115) to 88% (101/115) of children at risk for autism spectrum disorder. Children with a family history of autism spectrum disorder were 3 times more likely to show autism spectrum disorder risk on screening measures. The prediction of a child's risk on the ASQ or M-CHAT-R was significantly more accurate when predicted from text combined with an M-CHAT-R question selected (automatically) than from the text alone. The frequently automatically selected M-CHAT-R questions that predicted risk were: following a point, make-believe play, and concern about deafness. CONCLUSIONS:The internet can be harnessed to prescreen for autism spectrum disorder using parental concerns by administering a few standardized screening questions to augment this process.

SUBMITTER: Ben-Sasson A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5941093 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates a labor-intensive process to measure the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children in the United States. Random forests methods have shown promise in speeding up this process, but they lag behind human classification accuracy by about 5%. We explore whether more recently available document classification algorithms can close this gap. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Using data gathered from a single surveillance site, we applied 8 supervised learning algorithms to predict whether children meet the case definition for ASD based solely on the words in their evaluations. We compared the algorithms' performance across 10 random train-test splits of the data, using classification accuracy, F1 score, and number of positive calls to evaluate their potential use for surveillance. RESULTS:Across the 10 train-test cycles, the random forest and support vector machine with Naive Bayes features (NB-SVM) each achieved slightly more than 87% mean accuracy. The NB-SVM produced significantly more false negatives than false positives (P = 0.027), but the random forest did not, making its prevalence estimates very close to the true prevalence in the data. The best-performing neural network performed similarly to the random forest on both measures. DISCUSSION:The random forest performed as well as more recently available models like the NB-SVM and the neural network, and it also produced good prevalence estimates. NB-SVM may not be a good candidate for use in a fully-automated surveillance workflow due to increased false negatives. More sophisticated algorithms, like hierarchical convolutional neural networks, may not be feasible to train due to characteristics of the data. Current algorithms might perform better if the data are abstracted and processed differently and if they take into account information about the children in addition to their evaluations. CONCLUSION:Deep learning models performed similarly to traditional machine learning methods at predicting the clinician-assigned case status for CDC's autism surveillance system. While deep learning methods had limited benefit in this task, they may have applications in other surveillance systems.

Project description:BackgroundAutism spectrum disorder (ASD) is characterised by many of features including problem in social interactions, different ways of learning, some children showing a keen interest in specific subjects, inclination to routines, challenges in typical communication, and particular ways of processing sensory information. Early intervention and suitable supports for these children may make a significant contribution to their development. However, considerable difficulties have been encountered in the screening and diagnosis of ASD. The literature has indicated that certain retinal features are significantly associated with ASD. In this study, we investigated the use of machine learning approaches on retinal images to further enhance the classification accuracy.MethodsForty-six ASD participants were recruited from three special needs schools and 24 normal control were recruited from the community. Among them, 23 age-gender matched ASD and normal control participant-pairs were constructed for the primary analysis. All retinal images were captured using a nonmydriatic fundus camera. Automatic retinal image analysis (ARIA) methodology applying machine-learning technology was used to optimise the information of the retina to develop a classification model for ASD. The model's validity was then assessed using a 10-fold cross-validation approach to assess its validity.FindingsThe sensitivity and specificity were 95.7% (95% CI 76.0%, 99.8%) and 91.3% (95% CI 70.5%, 98.5%) respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.974 (95% CI 0.934, 1.000); however, it was noted that the specificity for female participants might not be as high as that for male participants.InterpretationBecause ARIA is a fully automatic cloud-based algorithm and relies only on retinal images, it can be used as a risk assessment tool for ASD screening. Further diagnosis and confirmation can then be made by professionals, and potential treatment may be provided at a relatively early stage.

Project description:Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a highly complex neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by deficits in sociability and repetitive behaviour, however there is a great heterogeneity within other comorbidities that accompany ASD. Recently, gut microbiome has been pointed out as a plausible contributing factor for ASD development as individuals diagnosed with ASD often suffer from intestinal problems and show a differentiated intestinal microbial composition. Nevertheless, gut microbiome studies in ASD rarely agree on the specific bacterial taxa involved in this disorder. Regarding the potential role of gut microbiome in ASD pathophysiology, our aim is to investigate whether there is a set of bacterial taxa relevant for ASD classification by using a sibling-controlled dataset. Additionally, we aim to validate these results across two independent cohorts as several confounding factors, such as lifestyle, influence both ASD and gut microbiome studies. A machine learning approach, recursive ensemble feature selection (REFS), was applied to 16S rRNA gene sequencing data from 117 subjects (60 ASD cases and 57 siblings) identifying 26 bacterial taxa that discriminate ASD cases from controls. The average area under the curve (AUC) of this specific set of bacteria in the sibling-controlled dataset was 81.6%. Moreover, we applied the selected bacterial taxa in a tenfold cross-validation scheme using two independent cohorts (a total of 223 samples-125 ASD cases and 98 controls). We obtained average AUCs of 74.8% and 74%, respectively. Analysis of the gut microbiome using REFS identified a set of bacterial taxa that can be used to predict the ASD status of children in three distinct cohorts with AUC over 80% for the best-performing classifiers. Our results indicate that the gut microbiome has a strong association with ASD and should not be disregarded as a potential target for therapeutic interventions. Furthermore, our work can contribute to use the proposed approach for identifying microbiome signatures across other 16S rRNA gene sequencing datasets.

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Risk Assessment for Parents Who Suspect Their Child Has Autism Spectrum Disorder: Machine Learning Approach.

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