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Assessing uncertainty in the burden of hepatitis C virus: Comparison of estimated disease burden and treatment costs in the UK.

ABSTRACT: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major and growing public health concern. We need to know the expected health burden and treatment cost, and understand uncertainty in those estimates, to inform policymaking and future research. Two models that have been important in informing treatment guidelines and assessments of HCV burden were compared by simulating cohorts of individuals with chronic HCV infection initially aged 20, 35 and 50 years. One model predicts that health losses (measured in quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) and treatment costs decrease with increasing initial age of the patients, whilst the other model predicts that below 40 years, costs increase and QALY losses change little with age, and above 40 years, they decline with increasing age. Average per-patient costs differ between the models by up to 38%, depending on the patients' initial age. One model predicts double the total number, and triple the peak annual incidence, of liver transplants compared to the other model. One model predicts 55%-314% more deaths than the other, depending on the patients' initial age. The main sources of difference between the models are estimated progression rates between disease states and rates of health service utilization associated with different disease states and, in particular, the age dependency of these parameters. We conclude that decision-makers need to be aware that uncertainties in the health burden and economic cost of HCV disease have important consequences for predictions of future need for care and cost-effectiveness of interventions to avert HCV transmission, and further quantification is required to inform decisions.

SUBMITTER: Gubay F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5947569 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing uncertainty in the burden of hepatitis C virus: Comparison of estimated disease burden and treatment costs in the UK.

Gubay F F Staunton R R Metzig C C Abubakar I I White P J PJ

Journal of viral hepatitis 20180301 5

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major and growing public health concern. We need to know the expected health burden and treatment cost, and understand uncertainty in those estimates, to inform policymaking and future research. Two models that have been important in informing treatment guidelines and assessments of HCV burden were compared by simulating cohorts of individuals with chronic HCV infection initially aged 20, 35 and 50 years. One model predicts that health losses (measured in quality-adj ...[more]

PMID: 29274178

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Project description:BACKGROUND:As direct acting antiviral (DAA) therapy is progressively rolled out for patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, careful scrutiny of HCV epidemiology, diagnostic testing, and access to care is crucial to underpin improvements in delivery of treatment, with the ultimate goal of elimination. METHODS:We retrospectively studied microbiology records from a large UK teaching hospital in order to compare the performance of HCV screening and diagnostic tests (antibody, antigen and HCV RNA detection). Having described a local cohort of adults with active HCV infection, we investigated the proportion who attended hospital appointments, were prescribed direct acting antiviral (DAA) therapy, and cleared HCV RNA following treatment. RESULTS:Over a total time period of 33 months between 2013 and 2016, we tested 38,509 individuals for HCV infection and confirmed a new diagnosis of active HCV infection (HCV-Ag + and/or HCV RNA+) in 353 (positive rate 0.9%). Our in-house HCV-Ab screening test had a positive predictive value of 87% compared to repeat HCV-Ab testing in a reference laboratory, highlighting the potential for false positives to arise using this test. HCV-Ag had 100% positive predictive value compared to detection of HCV RNA. There was a strong correlation between quantitative HCV-Ag and HCV RNA viral load (p < 0.0001). Among the cases of infection, genotype-1 and genotype-3 predominated, the median age was 37 years, 84% were male, and 36% were in prison. Hepatology review was provided in 39%, and 22% received treatment. Among those who received DAA therapy with 12 weeks of follow-up, 93% achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR12). CONCLUSIONS:HCV-Ag performs well as a diagnostic test compared to PCR for HCV RNA. Active HCV infection is over-represented among men and in the prison population. DAA therapy is successful in those who receive it, but a minority of patients with a diagnosis of HCV infection access clinical care. Enhanced efforts are required to provide linkage to clinical care within high risk populations.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Hyperkalemia (HK) can affect health outcomes and quality of life, as it is referred to as a potentially life-threatening condition caused by an increased serum potassium concentration in the blood. Patients suffering from heart failure or chronic kidney diseases are at a higher risk of HK, which can further be amplified by the treatment received. To date, data on HK prevalence is lacking for Germany and the aims of this study were to assess HK and compare health-relevant outcomes and healthcare costs between HK patients and non-HK patients. METHODS:The InGef research database containing healthcare claims of over 4 million individuals in Germany was utilized for this retrospective, matched cohort analysis. Patients with non-acute outpatient treated and a subgroup of patients with chronic HK, were identified in 2015 with an individual 1 year pre- and post-index period, taking the first observable HK diagnosis/treatment in 2015 into account as the index event. To identify non-acute outpatient treated HK patients, at least two ICD-10-GM diagnosis codes E87.5 "Hyperkalemia" and/or prescriptions of polystyrene sulfonate were required. Chronic HK patients had additional diagnoses and/or prescriptions in all quarters following the first observable HK diagnosis. Patients without HK were matched 1:1 to the respective HK cohorts. RESULTS:In the year 2015, 3333 patients with non-acute outpatient treated HK were identified of which 1693 were patients with chronic HK. After matching, 3191 and 1664 HK patients and controls were available for analysis. A significantly higher number of hospitalizations was observed for both HK cohorts in comparison to their matched controls. Dialysis initiation as well as the healthcare costs were higher for both HK cohorts when compared to their matched counterparts. CONCLUSIONS:The disease burden was higher for patients with HK, based on a higher proportion of patients with dialysis initiation and higher healthcare costs.

Project description:BackgroundThe British Columbia (BC) Hepatitis Testers Cohort (BC-HTC) was established to assess and monitor hepatitis C (HCV) epidemiology, cost of illness and treatment effectiveness in BC, Canada. In this paper, we describe the cohort construction, data linkage process, linkage yields, and comparison of the characteristics of linked and unlinked individuals.MethodsThe BC-HTC includes all individuals tested for HCV and/or HIV or reported as a case of HCV, hepatitis B (HBV), HIV or active tuberculosis (TB) in BC linked with the provincial health insurance client roster, medical visits, hospitalizations, drug prescriptions, the cancer registry and mortality data using unique personal health numbers. The cohort includes data since inception (1990/1992) of each database until 2012/2013 with plans for annual updates. We computed linkage rates by year and compared the characteristics of linked and unlinked individuals.ResultsOf 2,656,323 unique individuals available in the laboratory and surveillance data, 1,427,917(54%) were included in the final linked cohort, including about 1.15 million tested for HCV and about 1.02 million tested for HIV. The linkage rate was 86% for HCV tests, 89% for HCV cases, 95% for active TB cases, 48% for HIV tests and 36% for HIV cases. Linkage rates increased from 40% for HCV negatives and 70% for HCV positives in 1992 to ~90% after 2005. Linkage rates were lower for males, younger age at testing, and those with unknown residence location. Linkage rates for HCV testers co-infected with HIV, HBV or TB were very high (90-100%).ConclusionLinkage rates increased over time related to improvements in completeness of identifiers in laboratory, surveillance, and registry databases. Linkage rates were higher for HCV than HIV testers, those testing positive, older individuals, and females. Data from the cohort provide essential information to support the development of prevention, care and treatment initiatives for those infected with HCV.

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Assessing uncertainty in the burden of hepatitis C virus: Comparison of estimated disease burden and treatment costs in the UK.

Publications

Assessing uncertainty in the burden of hepatitis C virus: Comparison of estimated disease burden and treatment costs in the UK.

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