Dataset Information

Impact of intercontinental pollution transport on North American ozone air pollution: an HTAP phase 2 multi-model study.

ABSTRACT: The recent update on the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of the ground-level ozone (O3/ can benefit from a better understanding of its source contributions in different US regions during recent years. In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution experiment phase 1 (HTAP1), various global models were used to determine the O3 source-receptor (SR) relationships among three continents in the Northern Hemisphere in 2001. In support of the HTAP phase 2 (HTAP2) experiment that studies more recent years and involves higher-resolution global models and regional models' participation, we conduct a number of regional-scale Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model (STEM) air quality base and sensitivity simulations over North America during May-June 2010. STEM's top and lateral chemical boundary conditions were downscaled from three global chemical transport models' (i.e., GEOS-Chem, RAQMS, and ECMWF C-IFS) base and sensitivity simulations in which the East Asian (EAS) anthropogenic emissions were reduced by 20 %. The mean differences between STEM surface O3 sensitivities to the emission changes and its corresponding boundary condition model's are smaller than those among its boundary condition models, in terms of the regional/period-mean (<10 %) and the spatial distributions. An additional STEM simulation was performed in which the boundary conditions were downscaled from a RAQMS (Realtime Air Quality Modeling System) simulation without EAS anthropogenic emissions. The scalability of O3 sensitivities to the size of the emission perturbation is spatially varying, and the full (i.e., based on a 100% emission reduction) source contribution obtained from linearly scaling the North American mean O3 sensitivities to a 20% reduction in the EAS anthropogenic emissions may be underestimated by at least 10 %. The three boundary condition models' mean O3 sensitivities to the 20% EAS emission perturbations are ~8% (May-June 2010)/~11% (2010 annual) lower than those estimated by eight global models, and the multi-model ensemble estimates are higher than the HTAP1 reported 2001 conditions. GEOS-Chem sensitivities indicate that the EAS anthropogenic NO x emissions matter more than the other EAS O3 precursors to the North American O3, qualitatively consistent with previous adjoint sensitivity calculations. In addition to the analyses on large spatial-temporal scales relative to the HTAP1, we also show results on subcontinental and event scales that are more relevant to the US air quality management. The EAS pollution impacts are weaker during observed O3 exceedances than on all days in most US regions except over some high-terrain western US rural/remote areas. Satellite O3 (TES, JPL-IASI, and AIRS) and carbon monoxide (TES and AIRS) products, along with surface measurements and model calculations, show that during certain episodes stratospheric O3 intrusions and the transported EAS pollution influenced O3 in the western and the eastern US differently. Free-running (i.e., without chemical data assimilation) global models underpredicted the transported background O3 during these episodes, posing difficulties for STEM to accurately simulate the surface O3 and its source contribution. Although we effectively improved the modeled O3 by incorporating satellite O3 (OMI and MLS) and evaluated the quality of the HTAP2 emission inventory with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute-Ozone Monitoring Instrument (KNMI-OMI) nitrogen dioxide, using observations to evaluate and improve O3 source attribution still remains to be further explored.

SUBMITTER: Huang M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5954439 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact of intercontinental pollution transport on North American ozone air pollution: an HTAP phase 2 multi-model study.

Huang Min M Carmichael Gregory R GR Pierce R Bradley RB Jo Duseong S DS Park Rokjin J RJ Flemming Johannes J Emmons Louisa K LK Bowman Kevin W KW Henze Daven K DK Davila Yanko Y Sudo Kengo K Jonson Jan Eiof JE Lund Marianne Tronstad MT Janssens-Maenhout Greet G Dentener Frank J FJ Keating Terry J TJ Oetjen Hilke H Payne Vivienne H VH

Atmospheric chemistry and physics 20170501

The recent update on the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of the ground-level ozone (O<sub>3</sub>/ can benefit from a better understanding of its source contributions in different US regions during recent years. In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution experiment phase 1 (HTAP1), various global models were used to determine the O<sub>3</sub> source-receptor (SR) relationships among three continents in the Northern Hemisphere in 2001. In support of the HTAP phase 2 (HTAP2) ...[more]

PMID: 29780406

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Project description:Ambient air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter is associated with premature mortality. As emissions from one continent influence air quality over others, changes in emissions can also influence human health on other continents. We estimate global air pollution-related premature mortality from exposure to PM2.5 and ozone, and the avoided deaths from 20% anthropogenic emission reductions from six source regions, North America (NAM), Europe (EUR), South Asia (SAS), East Asia (EAS), Russia/Belarus/Ukraine (RBU) and the Middle East (MDE), three global emission sectors, Power and Industry (PIN), Ground Transportation (TRN) and Residential (RES) and one global domain (GLO), using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2), and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We build on results from previous studies of the TF-HTAP by using improved atmospheric models driven by new estimates of 2010 anthropogenic emissions (excluding methane), with more source and receptor regions, new consideration of source sector impacts, and new epidemiological mortality functions. We estimate 290,000 (95% CI: 30,000, 600,000) premature O3-related deaths and 2.8 million (0.5 million, 4.6 million) PM2.5-related premature deaths globally for the baseline year 2010. While 20% emission reductions from one region generally lead to more avoided deaths within the source region than outside, reducing emissions from MDE and RBU can avoid more O3-related deaths outside of these regions than within, and reducing MDE emissions also avoids more PM2.5-related deaths outside of MDE than within. Our findings that most avoided O3-related deaths from emission reductions in NAM and EUR occur outside of those regions contrast with those of previous studies, while estimates of PM2.5-related deaths from NAM, EUR, SAS and EAS emission reductions agree well. In addition, EUR, MDE and RBU have more avoided O3-related deaths from reducing foreign emissions than from domestic reductions. For six regional emission reductions, the total avoided extra-regional mortality is estimated as 6,000 (-3,400, 15,500) deaths/year and 25,100 (8,200, 35,800) deaths/year through changes in O3 and PM2.5, respectively. Interregional transport of air pollutants leads to more deaths through changes in PM2.5 than in O3, even though O3 is transported more on interregional scales, since PM2.5 has a stronger influence on mortality. For NAM and EUR, our estimates of avoided mortality from regional and extra-regional emission reductions are comparable to those estimated by regional models for these same experiments. In sectoral emission reductions, TRN emissions account for the greatest fraction (26-53% of global emission reduction) of O3-related premature deaths in most regions, in agreement with previous studies, except for EAS (58%) and RBU (38%) where PIN emissions dominate. In contrast, PIN emission reductions have the greatest fraction (38-78% of global emission reduction) of PM2.5-related deaths in most regions, except for SAS (45%) where RES emission dominates, which differs with previous studies in which RES emissions dominate global health impacts. The spread of air pollutant concentration changes across models contributes most to the overall uncertainty in estimated avoided deaths, highlighting the uncertainty in results based on a single model. Despite uncertainties, the health benefits of reduced intercontinental air pollution transport suggest that international cooperation may be desirable to mitigate pollution transported over long distances.

Project description:BackgroundAnimal and epidemiologic studies indicate that air pollution may adversely affect fertility. However, the level of evidence is limited and specific pollutants driving the association are inconsistent across studies.MethodsWe used data from a web-based preconception cohort study of pregnancy planners enrolled during 2013-2019 (Pregnancy Study Online; PRESTO). Eligible participants self-identified as female, were aged 21-45 years, resided in the United States (U.S.) or Canada, and were trying to conceive without fertility treatments. Participants completed a baseline questionnaire and bi-monthly follow-up questionnaires until conception or 12 months. We analyzed data from 8,747 participants (U.S.: 7,304; Canada: 1,443) who had been trying to conceive for < 12 cycles at enrollment. We estimated residential ambient concentrations of particulate matter < 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) using validated spatiotemporal models specific to each country. We fit country-specific proportional probabilities regression models to estimate the association between annual average, menstrual cycle-specific, and preconception average pollutant concentrations with fecundability, the per-cycle probability of conception. We calculated fecundability ratios (FRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and adjusted for individual- and neighborhood-level confounders.ResultsIn the U.S., the FRs for a 5-µg/m3 increase in annual average, cycle-specific, and preconception average PM2.5 concentrations were 0.94 (95% CI: 0.83, 1.08), 1.00 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.07), and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.09), respectively. In Canada, the corresponding FRs were 0.92 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.16), 0.97 (95% CI: 0.87, 1.09), and 0.94 (95% CI: 0.80, 1.09), respectively. Likewise, NO2 and O3 concentrations were not strongly associated with fecundability in either country.ConclusionsNeither annual average, menstrual cycle-specific, nor preconception average exposure to ambient PM2.5, NO2, and O3 were appreciably associated with reduced fecundability in this cohort of pregnancy planners.

Project description:BackgroundLong-term ozone ([Formula: see text]) exposure is associated with cardiovascular mortality, but little is known about the associations between [Formula: see text] and subclinical arterial disease.ObjectivesWe studied the longitudinal association of exposure to [Formula: see text] and progression of key subclinical arterial markers in adults: intima-media thickness of common carotid artery ([Formula: see text]), carotid plaque (CP) burden, and coronary artery calcification (CAC).MethodsCAC was measured one to four times at baseline and at follow-up exams (1999–2012) by computed tomography (CT) in 6,619 healthy adults, recruited at age 45-84 y without cardiovascular disease (CVD), over a mean of 6.5 y (standard deviation: 3.5 y). [Formula: see text] and CP burden were quantified in 3,392 participants using carotid artery ultrasound imaging acquired over a mean of 9 y (1.7 y). Over 91% and 89% participants had at least one follow-up [Formula: see text] and CAC measurement, respectively. Residence-specific [Formula: see text] concentrations were estimated by a validated spatiotemporal model spanning from 1999 to 2012. This model relied on comprehensive monitoring data and geographical variables to predict individualized long-term average concentrations since baseline. Linear mixed models and logistic regression model were used to evaluate relationships of long-term average exposure to [Formula: see text] with longitudinal change in [Formula: see text], CAC, and CP formation, respectively.ResultsMean progression rates of [Formula: see text] and CAC were [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. CP formation was identified in 55% of the subjects. A [Formula: see text] increase in long-term average [Formula: see text] exposure was associated with a [Formula: see text] [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4, 9.7] greater increase in [Formula: see text] over 10 y. A [Formula: see text] increase in [Formula: see text] was also associated with new CP formation [odds ratio (OR): 1.2 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.4)] but not CAC progression [[Formula: see text] (95% CI: [Formula: see text], 2)]. Associations were robust in the analysis with extended covariate adjustment, including copollutants, i.e., nitrogen oxides ([Formula: see text]) and particulate matter with diameter [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]).ConclusionOver almost a decade of follow-up, outdoor [Formula: see text] concentrations were associated with increased rate of carotid wall thickness progression and risk of new plaque formation, suggesting arterial injury in this cohort. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3325.

Dataset Information

Impact of intercontinental pollution transport on North American ozone air pollution: an HTAP phase 2 multi-model study.

Publications

Impact of intercontinental pollution transport on North American ozone air pollution: an HTAP phase 2 multi-model study.

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