Dataset Information

Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf.

ABSTRACT: Recent shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species have been linked to shifts in preferred thermal habitats. These shifts in distribution have already posed challenges for living marine resource management, and there is a strong need for projections of how species might be impacted by future changes in ocean temperatures during the 21st century. We modeled thermal habitat for 686 marine species in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans using long-term ecological survey data from the North American continental shelves. These habitat models were coupled to output from sixteen general circulation models that were run under high (RCP 8.5) and low (RCP 2.6) future greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21st century to produce 32 possible future outcomes for each species. The models generally agreed on the magnitude and direction of future shifts for some species (448 or 429 under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6, respectively), but strongly disagreed for other species (116 or 120 respectively). This allowed us to identify species with more or less robust predictions. Future shifts in species distributions were generally poleward and followed the coastline, but also varied among regions and species. Species from the U.S. and Canadian west coast including the Gulf of Alaska had the highest projected magnitude shifts in distribution, and many species shifted more than 1000 km under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Following a strong mitigation scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement would likely produce substantially smaller shifts and less disruption to marine management efforts. Our projections offer an important tool for identifying species, fisheries, and management efforts that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.

SUBMITTER: Morley JW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5955691 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf.

Morley James W JW Selden Rebecca L RL Latour Robert J RJ Frölicher Thomas L TL Seagraves Richard J RJ Pinsky Malin L ML

PloS one 20180516 5

Recent shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species have been linked to shifts in preferred thermal habitats. These shifts in distribution have already posed challenges for living marine resource management, and there is a strong need for projections of how species might be impacted by future changes in ocean temperatures during the 21st century. We modeled thermal habitat for 686 marine species in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans using long-term ecological survey data from the North A ...[more]

PMID: 29768423

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Project description:Habitat shifts that occur during the life cycles of marine fishes influence population connectivity and structure. A generalized additive modeling approach was used to characterize relationships between environmental variables and the relative abundance of red snapper Lutjanus campechanus over unconsolidated substrate on the continental shelf (<150 m) of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GoM) at three different life stages: juvenile (age-0, <125 mm FL), sub-adult (age-1-2, 125-300 mm FL), and adult (age-2+, >300 mm FL). Fisheries independent data (2008-2014) were used to develop separate models for both the eastern and western GoM, and final models were used to predict the relative availability of suitable habitat for each life stage across the two regions. Predictor variables included in final models varied by age class and region, with depth, dissolved oxygen, longitude, and distance to artificial structure common to most models. Depth was among the most influential variables in all models, and preferred depth increased with increasing size/age. Regional differences in fish-habitat relationships were also observed, as relative abundance of larger red snapper over unconsolidated substrates was more closely linked to artificial structure in the eastern GoM. The location of predicted high quality habitat for juvenile red snapper was greatest on the inner Texas shelf and a smaller area east of the Mississippi River Delta, suggesting these two areas may represent important nursery grounds for the respective regions. Clear ontogenetic shifts in the spatial distribution of predicted high quality habitat were evident in both the eastern (expansion from west to east with age) and western (shift from inshore to offshore) GoM. Given the unique population dynamics between the eastern and western GoM, improving our understanding of spatial and temporal variability in habitat quality may be important to maintaining connectivity between juvenile and adult habitats, and may enhance recovery and management of red snapper stocks in the GoM.

Dataset Information

Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf.

Publications

Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf.

Similar Datasets

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