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A prospective study of newly incident cannabis use and cannabis risk perceptions: Results from the United States Monitoring the Future study, 1976-2013.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:A prevailing epidemiological theory about drug use occurrence among secondary school students is that trends in perceived risk of drug-related harms can drive use. If so, cannabis risk perceptions during one school year should predict newly incident cannabis use in the same school the following year. We aimed to study trends in incidence and epidemiological clustering of cannabis use among United States (US) 12th-graders, and a novel prediction that incidence in school-year 't' is influenced by school-specific cannabis risk perceptions (CRP) of 12th-graders a year prior at 't-1'. METHODS:US schools sampled each year from 1976 to 2013 (?130 schools per year) yielded an annual nationally representative sample of ?15-16,000 12th-graders with questionnaire assessments. Analyses involved Alternating Logistic Regressions (ALR) to study trends in school-level clustering and slopes that estimate the degree to which CRP levels at 't-1' might predict newly incident cannabis use at 't'. RESULTS:School-level CRP levels at 't-1' predict newly incident cannabis use in the next year's 12th-grade class. For each unit CRP increment, the next year's class shows tangibly reduced incidence of starting to use cannabis (overall odds ratio, OR?=?0.10; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.33). Within-school clustering of newly incident cannabis smoking also can be seen (e.g., pairwise odds ratio, PWOR?=?1.11; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.15). CONCLUSIONS:Programmatic manipulation of perceived risk in one year's senior class via public health/school alliances might dampen the subsequent risk of newly incident cannabis use in the next year's class.

SUBMITTER: Parker MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5959792 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A prospective study of newly incident cannabis use and cannabis risk perceptions: Results from the United States Monitoring the Future study, 1976-2013.

Parker Maria A MA Anthony James C JC

Drug and alcohol dependence 20180415

<h4>Background</h4>A prevailing epidemiological theory about drug use occurrence among secondary school students is that trends in perceived risk of drug-related harms can drive use. If so, cannabis risk perceptions during one school year should predict newly incident cannabis use in the same school the following year. We aimed to study trends in incidence and epidemiological clustering of cannabis use among United States (US) 12th-graders, and a novel prediction that incidence in school-year 't ...[more]

PMID: 29709733

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Project description:BackgroundCannabis use and cannabis regulatory policies recently re-surfaced as noteworthy global research and social media topics, including claims that Mexicans have been sending cannabis and other drug supplies through a porous border into the United States. These circumstances prompted us to conduct an epidemiological test of whether the states bordering Mexico had exceptionally large cannabis incidence rates for 2002-2011. The resulting range of cannabis incidence rates disclosed here can serve as 2002-2011 benchmark values against which estimates from later years can be compared.MethodsThe population under study is 12-to-24-year-old non-institutionalized civilian community residents of the US, sampled and assessed with confidential audio computer-assisted self-interviews (ACASI) during National Surveys on Drug Use and Health, 2002-2011 (aggregate n ∼ 420,000) for which public use datasets were available. We estimated state-specific cannabis incidence rates based on independent replication sample surveys across these years, and derived meta-analysis estimates for 10 pre-specified regions, including the Mexico border region.ResultsFrom meta-analysis, the estimated annual incidence rate for cannabis use in the Mexico Border Region is 5% (95% CI [4%-7%]), which is not an exceptional value relative to the overall US estimate of 6% (95% CI [5%-6%]). Geographically quite distant from Mexico and from states of the western US with liberalized cannabis policies, the North Atlantic Region population has the numerically largest incidence estimate at 7% (95% CI [6%-8%]), while the Gulf of Mexico Border Region population has the lowest incidence rate at 5% (95% CI [4%-6%]). Within the set of state-specific estimates, Vermont's and Utah's populations have the largest and smallest incidence rates, respectively (VT: 9%; 95% CI [8%-10%]; UT: 3%; 95% CI [3%-4%]).DiscussionBased on this study's estimates, among 12-to-24-year-old US community residents, an estimated 6% start to use cannabis each year (roughly one in 16). Relatively minor variation in region-wise and state-level estimates is seen, although Vermont and Utah might be exceptional. As of 2011, proximity to Mexico, to Canada, and to the western states with liberalized policies apparently has induced little variation in cannabis incidence rates. Our primary intent was to create a set of benchmark estimates for state-specific and region-specific population incidence rates for cannabis use, using meta-analysis based on independent US survey replications. Public health officials and policy analysts now can use these benchmark estimates from 2002-2011 for planning, and in comparisons with newer estimates.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:The view that we are in the midst of a global diabetes epidemic has gained considerable ground in recent years and is often linked to the prior 'obesity epidemic'. This research explored how the diabetes epidemic was represented in United Kingdom (UK) news over the same time period that the obesity epidemic was widely reported. The research was motivated by a sociological interest in how postmodern 'epidemics' synergise with each other amidst broader political, economic, moral and sociocultural discourses. METHOD:We analysed three time-bound samples of UK news articles about diabetes: 1993 (n = 19), 2001 (n = 119) and 2013 (n = 324). Until now, UK media has had the least attention regarding portrayal of diabetes. We adopted an empathically neutral approach and used a dual method approach of inductive thematic analysis and deductive framing analysis. The two methods were triangulated to produce the findings. RESULTS:Framing of diabetes moved from medical in 1993 to behavioural in 2001, then societal in 2013. By 2001 obesity was conceptualised as causal to diabetes, rather than a risk factor. Between 2001 and 2013 portrayals of the modifiable risk factors for diabetes (i.e. diet, exercise and weight) became increasingly technical. Other risk factors like age, family history and genetics faded during 2001 and 2013, while race, ethnicity and culture were positioned as states of 'high risk' for diabetes. The notion of an 'epidemic' of diabetes 'powered up' these concerns from an individual problem to a societal threat in the context of obesity as a well-known health risk. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION:Portraying diabetes and the diabetes epidemic as anticipated consequences of obesity enlivens the heightened awareness to future risks in everyday life brought about during the obesity epidemic. The freeform adoption of the 'epidemic' term in contemporary health discourse appears to foster individual and societal dependence on biomedicine, giving it political, economic and divisive utility.

Dataset Information

A prospective study of newly incident cannabis use and cannabis risk perceptions: Results from the United States Monitoring the Future study, 1976-2013.

Publications

A prospective study of newly incident cannabis use and cannabis risk perceptions: Results from the United States Monitoring the Future study, 1976-2013.

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