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Age-specific association between blood pressure and vascular and non-vascular chronic diseases in 0·5 million adults in China: a prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The age-specific association between blood pressure and vascular disease has been studied mostly in high-income countries, and before the widespread use of brain imaging for diagnosis of the main stroke types (ischaemic stroke and intracerebral haemorrhage). We aimed to investigate this relationship among adults in China. METHODS:512?891 adults (59% women) aged 30-79 years were recruited into a prospective study from ten areas of China between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008. Participants attended assessment centres where they were interviewed about demographic and lifestyle characteristics, and their blood pressure, height, and weight were measured. Incident disease was identified through linkage to local mortality records, chronic disease registries, and claims to the national health insurance system. We used Cox regression analysis to produce adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) relating systolic blood pressure to disease incidence. HRs were corrected for regression dilution to estimate associations with long-term average (usual) systolic blood pressure. FINDINGS:During a median follow-up of 9 years (IQR 8-10), there were 88?105 incident vascular and non-vascular chronic disease events (about 90% of strokes events were diagnosed using brain imaging). At ages 40-79 years (mean age at event 64 years [SD 9]), usual systolic blood pressure was continuously and positively associated with incident major vascular disease throughout the range 120-180 mm Hg: each 10 mm Hg higher usual systolic blood pressure was associated with an approximately 30% higher risk of ischaemic heart disease (HR 1·31 [95% CI 1·28-1·34]) and ischaemic stroke (1·30 [1·29-1·31]), but the association with intracerebral haemorrhage was about twice as steep (1·68 [1·65-1·71]). HRs for vascular disease were twice as steep at ages 40-49 years than at ages 70-79 years. Usual systolic blood pressure was also positively associated with incident chronic kidney disease (1·40 [1·35-1·44]) and diabetes (1·14 [1·12-1·15]). About half of all vascular deaths in China were attributable to elevated blood pressure (ie, systolic blood pressure >120 mm Hg), accounting for approximately 1 million deaths (<80 years of age) annually. INTERPRETATION:Among adults in China, systolic blood pressure was continuously related to major vascular disease with no evidence of a threshold down to 120 mm Hg. Unlike previous studies in high-income countries, blood pressure was more strongly associated with intracerebral haemorrhage than with ischaemic stroke. Even small reductions in mean blood pressure at a population level could be expected to have a major impact on vascular morbidity and mortality. FUNDING:UK Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Science Foundation of China.

SUBMITTER: Lacey B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5960069 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Age-specific association between blood pressure and vascular and non-vascular chronic diseases in 0·5 million adults in China: a prospective cohort study.

Lacey Ben B Lewington Sarah S Clarke Robert R Kong Xiang Ling XL Chen Yiping Y Guo Yu Y Yang Ling L Bennett Derrick D Bragg Fiona F Bian Zheng Z Wang Shaojie S Zhang Hua H Chen Junshi J Walters Robin G RG Collins Rory R Peto Richard R Li Liming L Chen Zhengming Z

The Lancet. Global health 20180601 6

<h4>Background</h4>The age-specific association between blood pressure and vascular disease has been studied mostly in high-income countries, and before the widespread use of brain imaging for diagnosis of the main stroke types (ischaemic stroke and intracerebral haemorrhage). We aimed to investigate this relationship among adults in China.<h4>Methods</h4>512 891 adults (59% women) aged 30-79 years were recruited into a prospective study from ten areas of China between June 25, 2004, and July 15 ...[more]

PMID: 29773120

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Project description:ObjectivesTo determine the subgroup specific associations between usual blood pressure and risk of peripheral arterial disease, and to examine the relation between peripheral arterial disease and a range of other types of vascular disease in a large contemporary cohort.DesignCohort study.SettingLinked electronic health records from 1990 to 2013 in the United Kingdom.Participants4,222,459 people aged 30-90 years, registered at a primary care practice for at least one year and with a blood pressure measurement.Main outcome measuresTime to first diagnosis of new onset peripheral arterial disease and time to first diagnosis of 12 different vascular events.ResultsA 20 mm Hg higher than usual systolic blood pressure was associated with a 63% higher risk of peripheral arterial disease (hazard ratio 1.63, 95% confidence interval 1.59 to 1.66). The strength of the association declined with increasing age and body mass index (P<0.001 for interaction) but was not modified by sex or smoking status. Peripheral arterial disease was associated with an increased risk of 11 different vascular events, including ischaemic heart disease (1.68, 1.58 to 1.79), heart failure (1.63, 1.52 to 1.75), aortic aneurysm (2.10, 1.79 to 2.45), and chronic kidney disease (1.31, 1.25 to 1.38), but not haemorrhagic stroke. The most common initial vascular event among those with peripheral arterial disease was chronic kidney disease (24.4% of initial events), followed by ischaemic heart disease (18.5% of initial events), heart failure (14.7%), and atrial fibrillation (13.2%). Overall estimates from this cohort were consistent with those derived from traditional studies when we pooled the findings in two meta-analyses.ConclusionsRaised blood pressure is a strong risk factor for peripheral arterial disease in a range of patient subgroups. Furthermore, clinicians should be aware that those with established peripheral arterial disease are at an increased risk of a range of other vascular events, including chronic kidney disease, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and stroke.

Project description:BackgroundIn China, diabetes prevalence is rising rapidly, but little is known about the associated risks and population burden of cardiovascular diseases. We assess associations of diabetes with major cardiovascular diseases and the relevance of diabetes duration and other modifiable risk factors to these associations.Methods and findingsA nationwide prospective study recruited 512,891 men and women aged 30-79 y between 25 June 2004 and 15 July 2008 from ten diverse localities across China. During ~7 y of follow-up, 7,353 cardiovascular deaths and 25,451 non-fatal major cardiovascular events were recorded among 488,760 participants without prior cardiovascular disease at baseline. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) comparing disease risks in individuals with diabetes to those without. Overall, 5.4% (n = 26,335) of participants had self-reported (2.7%) or screen-detected (2.7%) diabetes. Individuals with self-reported diabetes had an adjusted HR of 2.07 (95% CI 1.90-2.26) for cardiovascular mortality. There were significant excess risks of major coronary event (2.44, 95% CI 2.18-2.73), ischaemic stroke (1.68, 95% CI 1.60-1.77), and intracerebral haemorrhage (1.24, 95% CI 1.07-1.44). Screen-detected diabetes was also associated with significant, though more modest, excess cardiovascular risks, with corresponding HRs of 1.66 (95% CI 1.51-1.83), 1.62 (95% CI 1.40-1.86), 1.48 (95% CI 1.40-1.57), and 1.17 (95% CI 1.01-1.36), respectively. Misclassification of screen-detected diabetes may have caused these risk estimates to be underestimated, whilst lack of data on lipids may have resulted in residual confounding of diabetes-associated cardiovascular disease risks. Among individuals with diabetes, cardiovascular risk increased progressively with duration of diabetes and number of other presenting modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. Assuming a causal association, diabetes now accounts for ~0.5 million (489,676, 95% CI 335,777-681,202) cardiovascular deaths annually in China.ConclusionsAmong Chinese adults, diabetes is associated with significantly increased risks of major cardiovascular diseases. The increasing prevalence and younger age of onset of diabetes foreshadow greater diabetes-attributable disease burden in China.

Project description:Importance:Body mass index (BMI) is positively associated with blood pressure (BP); this association has critical implications for countries like China, where hypertension is highly prevalent and obesity is increasing. A greater understanding of the association between BMI and BP is required to determine its effect and develop strategies to mitigate it. Objective:To assess the heterogeneity in the association between BMI and BP across a wide variety of subgroups of the Chinese population. Design, Setting, and Participants:In this cross-sectional study, data were collected at 1 time point from 1.7 million adults (aged 35-80 years) from 141 primary health care sites (53 urban districts and 88 rural counties) from all 31 provinces in mainland China who were enrolled in the China PEACE (Patient-Centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events) Million Persons Project, conducted between September 15, 2014, and June 20, 2017. A comprehensive subgroup analysis was performed by defining more than 22?000 subgroups of individuals based on covariates, and within each subgroup, linearly regressing BMI to BP. Main Outcomes and Measures:Systolic BP was measured twice with the participant in a seated position, using an electronic BP monitor. Results:The study included 1?727?411 participants (1?027?711 women and 699?700 men; mean [SD] age, 55.7 [9.8] years). Among the study sample, the mean (SD) BMI was 24.7 (3.5), the mean (SD) systolic BP was 136.5 (20.4) mm Hg, and the mean (SD) diastolic BP was 81.1 (11.2) mm Hg. The increase of BP per unit BMI ranged from 0.8 to 1.7 mm Hg/(kg/m2) for 95% of the subgroups not taking antihypertensive medication. The association between BMI and BP was substantially weaker in subgroups of patients taking antihypertensive medication compared with those who were untreated. In untreated subgroups, 95% of the coefficients varied by less than 1 mm Hg/(kg/m2). Conclusions and Relevance:The association between BMI and BP is positive across tens of thousands of individuals in population subgroups, and, if causal, given its magnitude, would have significant implications for public health.

Project description:BackgroundThe associations of blood pressure with the different manifestations of incident cardiovascular disease in a contemporary population have not been compared. In this study, we aimed to analyse the associations of blood pressure with 12 different presentations of cardiovascular disease.MethodsWe used linked electronic health records from 1997 to 2010 in the CALIBER (CArdiovascular research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records) programme to assemble a cohort of 1·25 million patients, 30 years of age or older and initially free from cardiovascular disease, a fifth of whom received blood pressure-lowering treatments. We studied the heterogeneity in the age-specific associations of clinically measured blood pressure with 12 acute and chronic cardiovascular diseases, and estimated the lifetime risks (up to 95 years of age) and cardiovascular disease-free life-years lost adjusted for other risk factors at index ages 30, 60, and 80 years. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01164371.FindingsDuring 5·2 years median follow-up, we recorded 83,098 initial cardiovascular disease presentations. In each age group, the lowest risk for cardiovascular disease was in people with systolic blood pressure of 90-114 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure of 60-74 mm Hg, with no evidence of a J-shaped increased risk at lower blood pressures. The effect of high blood pressure varied by cardiovascular disease endpoint, from strongly positive to no effect. Associations with high systolic blood pressure were strongest for intracerebral haemorrhage (hazard ratio 1·44 [95% CI 1·32-1·58]), subarachnoid haemorrhage (1·43 [1·25-1·63]), and stable angina (1·41 [1·36-1·46]), and weakest for abdominal aortic aneurysm (1·08 [1·00-1·17]). Compared with diastolic blood pressure, raised systolic blood pressure had a greater effect on angina, myocardial infarction, and peripheral arterial disease, whereas raised diastolic blood pressure had a greater effect on abdominal aortic aneurysm than did raised systolic pressure. Pulse pressure associations were inverse for abdominal aortic aneurysm (HR per 10 mm Hg 0·91 [95% CI 0·86-0·98]) and strongest for peripheral arterial disease (1·23 [1·20-1·27]). People with hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg or those receiving blood pressure-lowering drugs) had a lifetime risk of overall cardiovascular disease at 30 years of age of 63·3% (95% CI 62·9-63·8) compared with 46·1% (45·5-46·8) for those with normal blood pressure, and developed cardiovascular disease 5·0 years earlier (95% CI 4·8-5·2). Stable and unstable angina accounted for most (43%) of the cardiovascular disease-free years of life lost associated with hypertension from index age 30 years, whereas heart failure and stable angina accounted for the largest proportion (19% each) of years of life lost from index age 80 years.InterpretationThe widely held assumptions that blood pressure has strong associations with the occurrence of all cardiovascular diseases across a wide age range, and that diastolic and systolic associations are concordant, are not supported by the findings of this high-resolution study. Despite modern treatments, the lifetime burden of hypertension is substantial. These findings emphasise the need for new blood pressure-lowering strategies, and will help to inform the design of randomised trials to assess them.FundingMedical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, and Wellcome Trust.

Project description:BackgroundChina initiated major health-care reforms in 2009 aiming to provide universal health care for all by 2020. However, little is known about trends in health-care use and health outcomes across different socioeconomic groups in the past decade.MethodsWe used data from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), a nationwide prospective cohort study of adults aged 30-79 years in 2004-08, in ten regions (five urban, five rural) in China. Individuals who were alive in 2009 were included in the present study. Data for all admissions were obtained by linkage to electronic hospital records from the health insurance system, and to region-specific disease and death registers. Generalised linear models were used to estimate trends in annual hospital admission rates, 28-day case fatality rates, and mean length of stay for stroke, ischaemic heart disease, and any cause in all relevant individuals.Findings512 715 participants were recruited to the CKB between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008, 505 995 of whom were still alive on Jan 1, 2009, and contributed to the present study. Among them, we recorded 794 824 hospital admissions (74 313 for stroke, 69 446 for ischaemic heart disease) between 2009 and 2016. After adjustment for demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle, and morbidity factors, hospitalisation rates increased annually by 3·6% for stroke, 5·4% for ischaemic heart disease, and 4·2% for any cause, between 2009 and 2016. Higher socioeconomic groups had higher hospitalisation rates, but the annual proportional increases were higher in those with lower education or income levels, those enrolled in the urban or rural resident health insurance scheme, and for those in rural areas. Lower socioeconomic groups had higher case fatality rates for stroke and ischaemic heart disease, but greater reductions in case fatality rates than higher socioeconomic groups. By contrast, mean length of stay decreased by around 2% annually for stroke, ischaemic heart disease, and any cause, but decreased to a greater extent in higher than lower socioeconomic groups for stroke and ischaemic heart disease.InterpretationBetween 2009 and 2016, lower socioeconomic groups in China had greater increases in hospital admission rates and greater reductions in case fatality rates for stroke and ischaemic heart disease. Additional strategies are needed to further reduce socioeconomic differences in health-care use and disease outcomes.FundingWellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, China Ministry of Science and Technology, and Chinese National Natural Science Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundStroke is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Despite considerable improvements in diagnosis and treatment, little is known about the short-term and long-term prognosis after a first stroke in low-income and middle-income countries, including China. We aimed to assess the short-term and long-term risk of recurrent stroke and mortality after a first stroke for each of the major pathological stroke types.MethodsThis population-based cohort study included adults aged 35-74 years without disability who were recruited to the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). A baseline survey was conducted in ten geographical areas (five urban, five rural) in China, and participants had clinical measurements recorded. Participants were followed up by monitoring death registries and by electronic linkage to health registries and health insurance claims databases, with follow-up until Jan 1, 2017. Participants were excluded from analyses if they had a previous history of stroke, transient ischaemic attack, or ischaemic heart disease at baseline. All incidences of fatal and non-fatal stroke during the study period were recorded by type (ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and unspecified type). Primary outcome measures were 28-day mortality, recurrent stroke, major vascular events (recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death), vascular mortality, and all-cause mortality.FindingsOf 512 715 individuals in the CKB, 489 586 participants without previous ischaemic heart disease and stroke at recruitment were included, of whom 45 732 (42 073 [92%] confirmed by brain imaging) had a stroke during the study period. The mean age was 59·3 years (SD 9·8) for participants who had a stroke (54% women) and 50·8 years (10·3) for participants with no stroke (60% women). 36 588 (80%) of the incident cases of stroke were ischaemic stroke, 7440 (16%) were intracerebral haemorrhage, 702 (2%) were subarachnoid haemorrhage, and 1002 (2%) were an unspecified stroke type. 28-day mortality was 3% (95% CI 3-4) for ischaemic stroke, 47% (46-48)for intracerebral haemorrhage, 19% (17-22; 52% for rural areas and 32% for urban areas) subarachnoid haemorrhage, and 24% (22-27) for unspecified stroke. Among participants who survived stroke at 28 days, 41% (41-42) had recurrent stroke at 5 years (ischaemic stroke 41% [41-42], intracerebral haemorrhage 44% [42-46], subarachnoid haemorrhage 22% [18-27], unspecified stroke type 40% [35-44]) and mortality at 5 years was 17% ([17-18] ischaemic stroke 16% [15-16], intracerebral haemorrhage 28% [26-29], subarachnoid haemorrhage 16% [12-20], unspecified stroke type 15% [12-19]). After a first ischaemic stroke, 91% of recurrent strokes were also ischaemic stroke; after an intracerebral haemorrhage, 56% of recurrent strokes were intracerebral haemorrhage, and 41% of recurrent strokes were ischaemic stroke.InterpretationAfter a first stroke, the risk of recurrence or death within 5 years was high among this population of Chinese adults. Urgent improvements to secondary prevention of stroke in China are needed to reduce these risks.FundingWellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, National Natural Science Foundation of China.Copyright© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Dataset Information

Age-specific association between blood pressure and vascular and non-vascular chronic diseases in 0·5 million adults in China: a prospective cohort study.

Publications

Age-specific association between blood pressure and vascular and non-vascular chronic diseases in 0·5 million adults in China: a prospective cohort study.

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