Dataset Information

Optimizing the impact of low-efficacy influenza vaccines.

ABSTRACT: The efficacy of influenza vaccines varies from one year to the next, with efficacy during the 2017-2018 season anticipated to be lower than usual. However, the impact of low-efficacy vaccines at the population level and their optimal age-specific distribution have yet to be ascertained. Applying an optimization algorithm to a mathematical model of influenza transmission and vaccination in the United States, we determined the optimal age-specific uptake of low-efficacy vaccine that would minimize incidence, hospitalization, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), respectively. We found that even relatively low-efficacy influenza vaccines can be highly impactful, particularly when vaccine uptake is optimally distributed across age groups. As vaccine efficacy declines, the optimal distribution of vaccine uptake shifts toward the elderly to minimize mortality and DALYs. Health practitioner encouragement and concerted recruitment efforts are required to achieve optimal coverage among target age groups, thereby minimizing influenza morbidity and mortality for the population overall.

SUBMITTER: Sah P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5960327 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Optimizing the impact of low-efficacy influenza vaccines.

Sah Pratha P Medlock Jan J Fitzpatrick Meagan C MC Singer Burton H BH Galvani Alison P AP

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20180430 20

The efficacy of influenza vaccines varies from one year to the next, with efficacy during the 2017-2018 season anticipated to be lower than usual. However, the impact of low-efficacy vaccines at the population level and their optimal age-specific distribution have yet to be ascertained. Applying an optimization algorithm to a mathematical model of influenza transmission and vaccination in the United States, we determined the optimal age-specific uptake of low-efficacy vaccine that would minimize ...[more]

PMID: 29712866

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Project description:Nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) of influenza virus is a key virulence element with multifunctional roles in virus replication and a potent antagonist of host immune response. Deletion of NS1 (DelNS1) would create a safer and more extensively immunogenic live attenuated influenza virus (LAIV) vaccine. However, DelNS1 viruses are very difficult to grow in regular vaccine-producing systems, which has hampered the application of DelNS1 LAIV vaccines in humans. We have developed two master backbones of deleted-NS1 (DelNS1) viral genomes from influenza A or B viruses which contain novel adaptive mutations to support DelNS1-LAIV replication. These DelNS1-LAIVs are highly attenuated in human cells in vitro and nonpathogenic in mice but replicate well in vaccine-producing cells. Both influenza A and influenza B DelNS1 LAIVs grow better at 33°C than at 37 to 39°C. Vaccination with DelNS1 LAIV performed once is enough to provide potent protection against lethal challenge with homologous virus and strong long-lasting cross protection against heterosubtypic or antigenically distantly related influenza viruses in mice. Mechanistic investigations revealed that DelNS1-LAIVs induce cross protective neutralizing antibody and CD8+ and CD4+ T cell immunities. Importantly, it has been shown that DelNS1-LAIV can be used to enhance specific anti-influenza immunity through expression of additional antigens from the deleted-NS1 site. Generation of DelNS1 viruses which are nonpathogenic and able to grow in vaccine-producing systems is an important strategy for making highly immunogenic LAIV vaccines that induce broad cross protective immunity against seasonal and emerging influenza.IMPORTANCE Current seasonal influenza vaccines are suboptimal and low in immunogenicity and do not provide long-lasting immunity and cross protection against influenza virus strains that have antigenically drifted. More-effective influenza vaccines which can induce both humoral immunity and T cell immunity are needed. The NS1 protein of influenza virus is a virulence element and the critical factor for regulation of the host immune response during virus infection. Deletion of the NS1 protein is a strategy to make an optimal LAIV vaccine. However, DelNS1 viruses are very difficult to grow in regular vaccine-producing systems, hampering the application of DelNS1 LAIV vaccines in humans. We have generated a panel of both influenza A and influenza B DelNS1 LAIVs which are able to grow in regular vaccine-producing cells. These DelNS1 LAIV vaccines are completely nonpathogenic, exhibit potent and long-lasting immunity, and can be used to express extra viral antigen to induce cross protective immunity against seasonal and emerging influenza.

Project description:BackgroundThe recent spread of avian influenza in wild birds and poultry may be a precursor to the emergence of a 1918-like human pandemic. Therefore, stockpiles of human pre-pandemic vaccine (targeted at avian strains) are being considered. For many countries, the principal constraint for these vaccine stockpiles will be the total mass of antigen maintained. We tested the hypothesis that lower individual doses (i.e., less than the recommended dose for maximum protection) may provide substantial extra community-level benefits because they would permit wider vaccine coverage for a given total size of antigen stockpile.Methods and findingsWe used a mathematical model to predict infection attack rates under different policies. The model incorporated both an individual's response to vaccination at different doses and the process of person-to-person transmission of pandemic influenza. We found that substantial reductions in the attack rate are likely if vaccines are given to more people at lower doses. These results are applicable to all three vaccine candidates for which data are available. As a guide to the magnitude of the effect, we simulated epidemics based on historical studies of immunogenicity. For example, for one of the vaccines for which data are available, the attack rate would drop from 67.6% to 58.7% if 160 out of the total US population of 300 million were given an optimal dose rather than 20 out of 300 million given the maximally protective dose (as promulgated in the US National Pandemic Preparedness Plan). Our results are conservative with respect to a number of alternative assumptions about the precise nature of vaccine protection. We also considered a model variant that includes a single high-risk subgroup representing children. For smaller stockpile sizes that allow vaccine to be offered only to the high-risk group at the optimal dose, the predicted benefits of using the homogenous model formed a lower bound in the presence of a risk group, even when the high-risk group was twice as infective and twice as susceptible.ConclusionsIn addition to individual-level protection (i.e., vaccine efficacy), the population-level implications of pre-pandemic vaccine programs should be considered when deciding on stockpile size and dose. Our results suggest that a lower vaccine dose may be justified in order to increase population coverage, thereby reducing the infection attack rate overall.

Project description:Several candidates of universal influenza vaccine (UIV) have entered phase III clinical trials, which are expected to improve the willingness and coverage of the population substantially. The impact of UIV on the seasonal influenza epidemic in low influenza vaccination coverage regions like China remains unclear. We proposed a new compartmental model involving the transmission of different influenza subtypes to evaluate the effects of UIV. We calibrated the model by weekly surveillance data of influenza in Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, China, during 2010/11-2018/19 influenza seasons. We calculated the percentage of averted infections under 2-month (September to October) and 6-month (September to the next February) vaccination patterns with varied UIV effectiveness and coverage in each influenza season, compared with no UIV scenario. A total of 195 766 influenza-like illness (ILI) cases were reported during the nine influenza seasons (2010/11-2018/19), of which the highest ILI cases were among age group 0-4 (59.60%) years old, followed by 5-14 (25.22%), 25-59 (8.19%), 15-24 (3.75%) and ⩾60 (3.37%) years old. The influenza-positive rate for all age groups among ILI cases was 17.51%, which is highest among 5-14 (23.75%) age group and followed by 25-59 (16.44%), 15-24 (16.42%), 0-4 (14.66%) and ⩾60 (13.98%) age groups, respectively. Our model showed that UIV might greatly avert influenza infections irrespective of subtypes in each influenza season. For example, in the 2018/19 influenza season, 2-month vaccination pattern with low UIV effectiveness (50%) and coverage (10%), and high UIV effectiveness (75%) and coverage (30%) could avert 41.6% (95% CI 27.8-55.4%) and 83.4% (80.9-85.9%) of influenza infections, respectively; 6-month vaccination pattern with low and high UIV effectiveness and coverage could avert 32.0% (15.9-48.2%) and 74.2% (69.7-78.7%) of influenza infections, respectively. It would need 11.4% (7.9-15.0%) of coverage to reduce half of the influenza infections for 2-month vaccination pattern with low UIV effectiveness and 8.5% (5.0-11.2%) of coverage with high UIV effectiveness, while it would need 15.5% (8.9-20.7%) of coverage for 6-month vaccination pattern with low UIV effectiveness and 11.2% (6.5-15.0%) of coverage with high UIV effectiveness. We conclude that UIV could significantly reduce the influenza infections even for low UIV effectiveness and coverage. The 2-month vaccination pattern could avert more influenza infections than the 6-month vaccination pattern irrespective of influenza subtype and UIV effectiveness and coverage.

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Optimizing the impact of low-efficacy influenza vaccines.

Publications

Optimizing the impact of low-efficacy influenza vaccines.

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