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Predicting Low Accrual in the National Cancer Institute's Cooperative Group Clinical Trials.

ABSTRACT: The extent to which trial-level factors differentially influence accrual to trials has not been comprehensively studied. Our objective was to evaluate the empirical relationship and predictive properties of putative risk factors for low accrual in the National Cancer Institute's (NCI's) Cooperative Group Program, now the National Clinical Trials Network (NCTN). Data from 787 phase II/III adult NCTN-sponsored trials launched between 2000 and 2011 were used to develop a logistic regression model to predict low accrual, defined as trials that closed with or were accruing at less than 50% of target; 46 trials opened between 2012 and 2013 were used for prospective validation. Candidate predictors were identified from a literature review and expert interviews; final predictors were selected using stepwise regression. Model performance was evaluated by calibration and discrimination via the area under the curve (AUC). All statistical tests were two-sided. Eighteen percent (n = 145) of NCTN-sponsored trials closed with low accrual or were accruing at less than 50% of target three years or more after initiation. A multivariable model of twelve trial-level risk factors had good calibration and discrimination for predicting trials with low accrual (AUC in trials launched 2000-2011 = 0.739, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.696 to 0.783]; 2012-2013: AUC = 0.732, 95% CI = 0.547 to 0.917). Results were robust to different definitions of low accrual and predictor selection strategies. We identified multiple characteristics of NCTN-sponsored trials associated with low accrual, several of which have not been previously empirically described, and developed a prediction model that can provide a useful estimate of accrual risk based on these factors. Future work should assess the role of such prediction tools in trial design and prioritization decisions.

SUBMITTER: Bennette CS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5964887 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The NCI Bladder Cancer Task Force convened a Clinical Trials Planning Meeting (CTPM) Workshop focused on Novel Therapeutics for Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC). Meeting attendees included a broad and multi-disciplinary group of clinical and research stakeholders and included leaders from NCI, FDA, National Clinical Trials Network (NCTN), advocacy and the pharmaceutical and biotech industry. The meeting goals and objectives were to: 1) create a collaborative environment in which the greater bladder research community can pursue future optimally designed novel clinical trials focused on the theme of molecular targeted and immune-based therapies in NMIBC; 2) frame the clinical and translational questions that are of highest priority; and 3) develop two clinical trial designs focusing on immunotherapy and molecular targeted therapy. Despite successful development and implementation of large Phase II and Phase III trials in bladder and upper urinary tract cancers, there are no active and accruing trials in the NMIBC space within the NCTN. Disappointingly, there has been only one new FDA approved drug (Valrubicin) in any bladder cancer disease state since 1998. Although genomic-based data for bladder cancer are increasingly available, translating these discoveries into practice changing treatment is still to come. Recently, major efforts in defining the genomic characteristics of NMIBC have been achieved. Aligned with these data is the growing number of targeted therapy agents approved and/or in development in other organ site cancers and the multiple similarities of bladder cancer with molecular subtypes in these other cancers. Additionally, although bladder cancer is one of the more immunogenic tumors, some tumors have the ability to attenuate or eliminate host immune responses. Two trial concepts emerged from the meeting including a window of opportunity trial (Phase 0) testing an FGFR3 inhibitor and a second multi-arm multi-stage trial testing combinations of BCG or radiotherapy and immunomodulatory agents in patients who recur after induction BCG (BCG failure).

Project description:BACKGROUND:There are multiple known individual- and practice-level barriers to enrollment of older patients with cancer to clinical trials, but little is known about how the clinical research workforce feels about potential higher-level strategy changes aimed to promote increased enrollment of older patients. SUBJECTS, MATERIALS, AND METHODS:We invited all 11,351 Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology ("Alliance") members to participate in an anonymous, web-based survey to examine awareness of current accrual patterns for older patients to clinical trials, to ascertain consensus on how to tackle enrollment challenges, and to provide the impetus for high-level changes to improve clinical trial accrual of older patients with cancer. RESULTS:During the period from February 28, 2017, to June 16, 2017, 1,146 Alliance members participated (response rate?= 10%), including a national diverse sample of physicians, nurses, administrative/clinical research staff, and patient advocates with representation from community, academic, and rural sites. Overall, one third felt that >50% of clinical trial enrollees should be age ?65, and 64.9% felt the Alliance could improve upon enrollment of older patients. The four most commonly ranked strategies to improve enrollment of older patients were creating more dedicated trials for this population (36.3%), minimizing exclusion criteria focused on comorbidity (35.5%), developing independent strategies for those aged ?65 and for those aged ?70 (33.2%), and requiring that most/all Alliance trials have a specific expansion cohort of older patients (30.0%). CONCLUSION:We anticipate that the recommendations from >1,000 Alliance members will continue to propel important strategy changes aimed to improve accrual of older patients with cancer to clinical trials. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE:This survey of the Alliance for Clinical Trials membership sought opinions on potential, large-scale, national strategies to improve accrual of older adults with cancer. Consensus was found around multiple strategies, including creating more dedicated trials for older patients, developing less stringent eligibility criteria, and mandating expansion cohorts of older patients within broader Alliance trials. It is anticipated that the recommendations from >1,000 Alliance members will continue to propel important strategy changes aimed to improve accrual of older patients with cancer to clinical trials.

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Predicting Low Accrual in the National Cancer Institute's Cooperative Group Clinical Trials.

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