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Predicting timing of clinical outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease and severely decreased glomerular filtration rate.

ABSTRACT: Patients with chronic kidney disease and severely decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) are at high risk for kidney failure, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death. Accurate estimates of risk and timing of these clinical outcomes could guide patient counseling and therapy. Therefore, we developed models using data of 264,296 individuals in 30 countries participating in the international Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium with estimated GFR (eGFR)s under 30 ml/min/1.73m2. Median participant eGFR and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio were 24 ml/min/1.73m2 and 168 mg/g, respectively. Using competing-risk regression, random-effect meta-analysis, and Markov processes with Monte Carlo simulations, we developed two- and four-year models of the probability and timing of kidney failure requiring kidney replacement therapy (KRT), a non-fatal CVD event, and death according to age, sex, race, eGFR, albumin-to-creatinine ratio, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, diabetes mellitus, and history of CVD. Hypothetically applied to a 60-year-old white male with a history of CVD, a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, an eGFR of 25 ml/min/1.73m2 and a urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 1000 mg/g, the four-year model predicted a 17% chance of survival after KRT, a 17% chance of survival after a CVD event, a 4% chance of survival after both, and a 28% chance of death (9% as a first event, and 19% after another CVD event or KRT). Risk predictions for KRT showed good overall agreement with the published kidney failure risk equation, and both models were well calibrated with observed risk. Thus, commonly-measured clinical characteristics can predict the timing and occurrence of clinical outcomes in patients with severely decreased GFR.

SUBMITTER: Grams ME

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5967981 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting timing of clinical outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease and severely decreased glomerular filtration rate.

Grams Morgan E ME Sang Yingying Y Ballew Shoshana H SH Carrero Juan Jesus JJ Djurdjev Ognjenka O Heerspink Hiddo J L HJL Ho Kevin K Ito Sadayoshi S Marks Angharad A Naimark David D Nash Danielle M DM Navaneethan Sankar D SD Sarnak Mark M Stengel Benedicte B Visseren Frank L J FLJ Wang Angela Yee-Moon AY Köttgen Anna A Levey Andrew S AS Woodward Mark M Eckardt Kai-Uwe KU Hemmelgarn Brenda B Coresh Josef J

Kidney international 20180329 6

Patients with chronic kidney disease and severely decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) are at high risk for kidney failure, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death. Accurate estimates of risk and timing of these clinical outcomes could guide patient counseling and therapy. Therefore, we developed models using data of 264,296 individuals in 30 countries participating in the international Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium with estimated GFR (eGFR)s under 30 ml/min/1.73m<sup>2</sup>. ...[more]

PMID: 29605094

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Project description:BackgroundGreater variability in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is associated with higher mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Heart failure (HF) is common in CKD and may increase variability through changes in hemodynamic and volume regulation. We sought to determine if patients with vs without HF have higher kidney function variability in CKD, and to define the association with mortality.Methods and resultsPatients undergoing coronary angiography from 2003 to 2013 with an eGFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 were evaluated from the Duke Databank for Cardiovascular Disease. Variability in the eGFR, measured as the coefficient of variation (CV) of residuals from the regression of eGFR vs time, was calculated spanning 3 months to 2 years after catheterization. Mortality was assessed 2 to 7 years after catheterization. Patients were grouped into 3 HF phenotypes: HF with reduced ejection fraction, HF with preserved ejection, and no HF. Regression was used to evaluate associations between HF phenotypes and variability in the eGFR and between variability in the eGFR and mortality rate with stratification by HF phenotype. Among 3767 participants, the median eGFR at baseline was 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 (interquartile range 33-53 mL/min/1.73 m2), and longitudinal measures of eGFR over 21 months had within-patient residual variability (CV) of 14% (9%-20%). In adjusted analyses, variability in the eGFR was greater in those with HF with preserved ejection (n = 695, CV difference 0.98%, 95% confidence interval 0.14%-1.81%) or HF with reduced ejection fraction (n = 800, CV difference 2.51%, 95% confidence interval 1.66%-3.37%) relative to no HF (n = 2272). In 3068 participants eligible for mortality analysis, the presence of HF and greater variability in the eGFR were each associated independently with higher mortality, but there was no evidence of interaction between variability in the eGFR and any HF phenotype (all P for interaction ≥.49).ConclusionsVariability in the eGFR is greater in patients with HF and associated with mortality. Prediction algorithms and classification schemes should consider not only static, but also dynamic eGFR variability in HF and CKD prognostication.

Project description:Although a reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in old people has been attributed to physiologic aging, it may be associated with kidney disease or superimposed comorbidities. This study aims to assess the prevalence of decreased GFR in a geriatric population in a developing country and its prevalence in the absence of simultaneous diseases.This is a cross-sectional study of data from the Saúde, Bem-Estar e Envelhecimento cohort study (SABE study[Health, Well-Being and Aging]), a multiple cohorts study. A multistage cluster sample composed of 1,253 individuals representative of 1,249,388 inhabitants of São Paulo city aged ?60 years in 2010 was analyzed. The participants answered a survey on socio-demographic factors and health, had blood pressure measured and urine and blood samples collected. GFR was estimated and defined as decreased when <60 mL/min/1.73m2. Kidney damage was defined as dipstick-positive hematuria or urinary protein:creatinine > 0.20 g/g.The prevalence of GFR <60 mL/min/1.73m2 was 19.3%. Individuals with GFR <60 mL/min/1.73m2 were older (75±1 versus 69±1 years, p<0.001), had lower schooling (18 versus 30% with complete 8-year basic cycle, p = 0.010), and higher prevalence of hypertension (82 versus 63%, p<0.001), diabetes (34 versus 26%, p = 0.021), cardiovascular disease (43 versus 24%, p<0.001) and kidney damage (35% versus 15%, p<0.001). Only 0.7% of the entire studied population had GFR <60 mL/min/1.73m2 without simultaneous diseases or kidney damage. Among the individuals with GFR <60 mL/min/1.73m2, 3.5% had neither renal damage nor associated comorbidities, whereas among those with GFR ?60 mL/min/1.73m2, 11.0% had none of these conditions. Logistic regression showed that older age, cardiovascular disease and hypertension were associated with GFR<60 mL/min/1.73m2.Decreased GFR was highly prevalent among the geriatric population in a megalopolis of a developing country. It was rarely present without simultaneous chronic comorbidities or kidney damage.

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Predicting timing of clinical outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease and severely decreased glomerular filtration rate.

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Predicting timing of clinical outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease and severely decreased glomerular filtration rate.

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