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Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:The objective of this study was to map the global risk of the major arboviral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus by identifying areas where the diseases are reported, either through active transmission or travel-related outbreaks, as well as areas where the diseases are not currently reported but are nonetheless suitable for the vector. METHODS:Data relating to five arboviral diseases (Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Rift Valley fever (RVF)) were extracted from some of the largest contemporary databases and paired with data on the known distribution of their vectors, A. aegypti and A. albopictus. The disease occurrence data for the selected diseases were compiled from literature dating as far back as 1952 to as recent as 2017. The resulting datasets were aggregated at the country level, except in the case of the USA, where state-level data were used. Spatial analysis was used to process the data and to develop risk maps. RESULTS:Out of the 250 countries/territories considered, 215 (86%) are potentially suitable for the survival and establishment of A. aegypti and/or A. albopictus. A. albopictus has suitability foci in 197 countries/territories, while there are 188 that are suitable for A. aegypti. There is considerable variation in the suitability range among countries/territories, but many of the tropical regions of the world provide high suitability over extensive areas. Globally, 146 (58.4%) countries/territories reported at least one arboviral disease, while 123 (49.2%) reported more than one of the above diseases. The overall numbers of countries/territories reporting autochthonous vector-borne occurrences of Zika, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and RVF, were 85, 111, 106, 43, and 39, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:With 215 countries/territories potentially suitable for the most important arboviral disease vectors and more than half of these reporting cases, arboviral diseases are indeed a global public health threat. The increasing proportion of reports that include multiple arboviral diseases highlights the expanding range of their common transmission vectors. The shared features of these arboviral diseases should motivate efforts to combine interventions against these diseases.

SUBMITTER: Leta S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5976855 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

Leta Samson S Beyene Tariku Jibat TJ De Clercq Eva M EM Amenu Kebede K Kraemer Moritz U G MUG Revie Crawford W CW

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases 20171128

<h4>Objectives</h4>The objective of this study was to map the global risk of the major arboviral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus by identifying areas where the diseases are reported, either through active transmission or travel-related outbreaks, as well as areas where the diseases are not currently reported but are nonetheless suitable for the vector.<h4>Methods</h4>Data relating to five arboviral diseases (Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Rift Valle ...[more]

PMID: 29196275

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Project description:BackgroundAedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors that transmit several arboviral diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The world is presently experiencing a series of outbreaks of these diseases, so, we still require to better understand the current distributions and possible future shifts of their vectors for successful surveillance and control programs. Few studies assessed the influences of climate change on the spatial distributional patterns and abundance of these important vectors, particularly using the most recent climatic scenarios. Here, we updated the current potential distributions of both vectors and assessed their distributional changes under future climate conditions.MethodsWe used ecological niche modeling approach to estimate the potential distributions of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus under present-day and future climate conditions. This approach fits ecological niche model from occurrence records of each species and environmental variables. For each species, future projections were based on climatic data from 9 general circulation models (GCMs) for each representative concentration pathway (RCP) in each time period, with a total of 72 combinations in four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. All ENMs were tested using the partial receiver operating characteristic (pROC) and a set of 2,048 and 2,003 additional independent records for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Finally, we used background similarity test to assess the similarity between the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus.ResultsThe predicted potential distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus coincided with the current and historical known distributions of both species. Aedes aegypti showed a markedly broader distributional potential across tropical and subtropical regions than Ae. albopictus. Interestingly, Ae. albopictus was markedly broader in distributional potential across temperate Europe and the United States. All ecological niche models (ENMs) were statistically robust (P < 0.001). ENMs successfully anticipated 98% (1,999/2,048) and 99% (1,985/2,003) of additional independent records for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively (P < 0.001). ENMs based on future conditions showed similarity between the overall distributional patterns of future-day and present-day conditions; however, there was a northern range expansion in the continental USA to include parts of Southern Canada in case of Ae. albopictus in both 2050 and 2070. Future models also anticipated further expansion of Ae. albopictus to the East to include most of Europe in both time periods. Aedes aegypti was anticipated to expand to the South in East Australia in 2050 and 2070. The predictions showed differences in distributional potential of both species between diverse RCPs in 2050 and 2070. Finally, the background similarity test comparing the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was unable to reject the null hypothesis of niche similarity between both species (P > 0.05).ConclusionThese updated maps provided details to better guide surveillance and control programs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. They have also significant public health importance as a baseline for predicting the emergence of arboviral diseases transmitted by both vectors in new areas across the world.

Project description:BACKGROUND: In the past ten years, the Indian Ocean region has been the theatre of severe epidemics of chikungunya and dengue. These outbreaks coincided with a high increase in populations of Aedes albopictus that outcompete its sister taxon Aedes aegypti in most islands sampled. The objective of this work was to update the entomological survey of the two Aedes species in the island of Madagascar which has to face these arboviroses. METHODS: The sampling of Aedes mosquitoes was conducted during two years, from October 2007 to October 2009, in fifteen localities from eight regions of contrasting climates. Captured adults were identified immediately whereas immature stages were bred until adult stage for determination. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using two mtDNA genes, COI and ND5 and trees were constructed by the maximum likelihood (ML) method with the gene time reversible (GTR) model. Experimental infections with the chikungunya virus strain 06.21 at a titer of 107.5 pfu/mL were performed to evaluate the vector competence of field-collected mosquitoes. Disseminated infection rates were measured fourteen days after infection by immunofluorescence assay performed on head squashes. RESULTS: The species Aedes aegypti was detected in only six sites in native forests and natural reserves. In contrast, the species Aedes albopictus was found in 13 out of the 15 sites sampled. Breeding sites were mostly found in man-made environments such as discarded containers, used tires, abandoned buckets, coconuts, and bamboo cuts. Linear regression models showed that the abundance of Ae. albopictus was significantly influenced by the sampling region (F = 62.00, p < 2.2 × 10(-16)) and period (F = 36.22, p = 2.548 × 10(-13)), that are associated with ecological and climate variations. Phylogenetic analysis of the invasive Ae. albopictus distinguished haplotypes from South Asia and South America from those of Madagascar, but the markers used were not discriminant enough to discern Malagasy populations. The experimental oral infection method showed that six Ae. albopictus populations exhibited high dissemination infection rates for chikungunya virus ranging from 98 to 100%. CONCLUSION: In Madagascar, Ae. albopictus has extended its geographical distribution whereas, Ae. aegypti has become rare, contrasting with what was previously observed. Changes are predominantly driven by human activities and the rainfall regime that provide suitable breeding sites for the highly anthropophilic mosquito Ae. albopictus. Moreover, these populations were found to be highly susceptible to chikungunya virus. In the light of this study, Ae. albopictus may have been involved in the recent outbreaks of chikungunya and dengue epidemics in Madagascar, and consequently, control measures should be promoted to limit its current expansion.

Dataset Information

Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

Publications

Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

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