Dataset Information

Reconciling the Entomological Hazard and Disease Risk in the Lyme Disease System.

ABSTRACT: Lyme disease (LD) is a commonly cited model for the link between habitat loss and/or fragmentation and disease emergence, based in part on studies showing that forest patch size is negatively related to LD entomological risk. An equivalent relationship has not, however, been shown between patch size and LD incidence (LDI). Because entomological risk is measured at the patch scale, while LDI is generally assessed in relation to aggregate landscape statistics such as forest cover, we posit that the contribution of individual patches to human LD risk has not yet been directly evaluated. We design a model that directly links theoretical entomological risk at the patch scale to larger-scale epidemiological data. We evaluate its predictions for relative LD risk in artificial landscapes with varying composition and configuration, and test its ability to predict countywide LDI in a 12-county region of New York. On simulated landscapes, we find that the model predicts a unimodal relationship between LD incidence and forest cover, mean patch size, and mean minimum distance (a measure of isolation), and a protective effect for percolation probability (a measure of connectivity). In New York, risk indices generated by this model are significantly related to countywide LDI. The results suggest that the lack of concordance between entomological risk and LDI may be partially resolved by this style of model.

SUBMITTER: McClure M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5982087 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Reconciling the Entomological Hazard and Disease Risk in the Lyme Disease System.

McClure Max M Diuk-Wasser Maria M

International journal of environmental research and public health 20180522 5

Lyme disease (LD) is a commonly cited model for the link between habitat loss and/or fragmentation and disease emergence, based in part on studies showing that forest patch size is negatively related to LD entomological risk. An equivalent relationship has not, however, been shown between patch size and LD incidence (LDI). Because entomological risk is measured at the patch scale, while LDI is generally assessed in relation to aggregate landscape statistics such as forest cover, we posit that th ...[more]

PMID: 29789489

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Forests in urban landscapes differ from their rural counterparts in ways that may alter vector-borne disease dynamics. In urban forest fragments, tick-borne pathogen prevalence is not well characterized; mitigating disease risk in densely-populated urban landscapes requires understanding ecological factors that affect pathogen prevalence. We trapped blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) nymphs in urban forest fragments on the East Coast of the United States and used multiplex real-time PCR assays to quantify the prevalence of four zoonotic, tick-borne pathogens. We used Bayesian logistic regression and WAIC model selection to understand how vegetation, habitat, and landscape features of urban forests relate to the prevalence of B. burgdorferi (the causative agent of Lyme disease) among blacklegged ticks. RESULTS:In the 258 nymphs tested, we detected Borrelia burgdorferi (11.2% of ticks), Borrelia miyamotoi (0.8%) and Anaplasma phagocytophilum (1.9%), but we did not find Babesia microti (0%). Ticks collected from forests invaded by non-native multiflora rose (Rosa multiflora) had greater B. burgdorferi infection rates (mean?=?15.9%) than ticks collected from uninvaded forests (mean?=?7.9%). Overall, B. burgdorferi prevalence among ticks was positively related to habitat features (e.g. coarse woody debris and total understory cover) favorable for competent reservoir host species. CONCLUSIONS:Understory structure provided by non-native, invasive shrubs appears to aggregate ticks and reservoir hosts, increasing opportunities for pathogen transmission. However, when we consider pathogen prevalence among nymphs in context with relative abundance of questing nymphs, invasive plants do not necessarily increase disease risk. Although pathogen prevalence is greater among ticks in invaded forests, the probability of encountering an infected tick remains greater in uninvaded forests characterized by thick litter layers, sparse understories, and relatively greater questing tick abundance in urban landscapes.

Project description:BackgroundTriatomine bugs transmit Chagas disease across Latin America, where vector control-surveillance is increasingly decentralized. Locally run systems often deal with highly diverse native-vector faunas-plus, in some areas, domestic populations of non-native species. Flexible entomological-risk indicators that cover native and non-native vectors and can support local decision-making are therefore needed.MethodsWe present a local-scale entomological-risk score ("TriatoScore") that leverages and builds upon information on the ecology-behavior and distribution-biogeography of individual triatomine bug species. We illustrate our approach by calculating TriatoScores for the 417 municipalities of Bahia state, Brazil. For this, we (i) listed all triatomine bug species recorded statewide; (ii) derived a "species relevance score" reflecting whether each species is native/non-native and, if native, whether/how often it invades/colonizes dwellings; (iii) mapped each species' presence by municipality; (iv) for native vectors, weighted presence by the proportion of municipal territory within ecoregions occupied by each species; (v) multiplied "species relevance score" × "weighted presence" to get species-specific "weighted scores"; and (vi) summed "weighted scores" across species to get municipal TriatoScores. Using standardized TriatoScores, we then grouped municipalities into high/moderate/low entomological-risk strata.ResultsTriatoScores were higher in municipalities dominated by dry-to-semiarid ecoregions than in those dominated by savanna-grassland or, especially, moist-forest ecoregions. Bahia's native triatomines can maintain high to moderate risk of vector-borne Chagas disease in 318 (76.3%) municipalities. Historical elimination of Triatoma infestans from 125 municipalities reduced TriatoScores by ~ 27% (range, 20-44%); eight municipalities reported T. infestans since Bahia was certified free of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission by this non-native species. Entomological-risk strata based on TriatoScores agreed well with Bahia's official disease-risk strata, but TriatoScores suggest that the official classification likely underestimates risk in 42 municipalities. Of 152 municipalities failing to report triatomines in 2006-2019, two and 71 had TriatoScores corresponding to, respectively, high and moderate entomological risk.ConclusionsTriatoScore can help control-surveillance managers to flexibly assess and stratify the entomological risk of Chagas disease at operationally relevant scales. Integrating eco-epidemiological, demographic, socioeconomic, or operational data (on, e.g., local-scale dwelling-infestation or vector-infection frequencies, land-use change and urbanization, housing conditions, poverty, or the functioning of control-surveillance systems) is also straightforward. TriatoScore may thus become a useful addition to the triatomine bug control-surveillance toolbox.

Project description:Objective:Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over 30 susceptibility loci associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD). Using AD GWAS data from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP), Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) was successfully applied to predict life time risk of AD development. A recently introduced Polygenic Hazard Score (PHS) is able to quantify individuals with age-specific genetic risk for AD. The aim of this study was to quantify the age-specific genetic risk for AD with PRS and compare the results generated by PRS with those from PHS. Methods:Quantification of individual differences in age-specific genetic risk for AD identified by the PRS, was performed with Cox Regression on 9903 (2626 cases and 7277 controls) individuals from the Genetic and Environmental Risk in Alzheimer's Disease consortium (GERAD). Polygenic Hazard Scores were generated for the same individuals. The age-specific genetic risk for AD identified by the PRS was compared with that generated by the PHS. This was repeated using varying SNPs P-value thresholds for disease association. Results:Polygenic Risk Score significantly predicted the risk associated with age at AD onset when SNPs were preselected for association to AD at P ? 0.001. The strongest effect (B = 0.28, SE = 0.04, P = 2.5 × 10-12) was observed for PRS based upon genome-wide significant SNPs (P ? 5 × 10-8). The strength of association was weaker with less stringent SNP selection thresholds. Interpretation:Both PRS and PHS can be used to predict an age-specific risk for developing AD. The PHS approach uses SNP effect sizes derived with the Cox Proportional Hazard Regression model. When SNPs were selected based upon AD GWAS case/control P ? 10-3, we found no advantage of using SNP effects sizes calculated with the Cox Proportional Hazard Regression model in our study. When SNPs are selected for association with AD risk at P > 10-3, the age-specific risk prediction results are not significant for either PRS or PHS. However PHS could be more advantageous than PRS of age specific AD risk predictions when SNPs are prioritized for association with AD age at onset (i.e., powerful Cox Regression GWAS study).

Project description:BackgroundIt has been suggested that increasing biodiversity, specifically host diversity, reduces pathogen and parasite transmission amongst wildlife (causing a "dilution effect"), whereby transmission amongst efficient reservoir hosts, (e.g. Peromyscus spp. mice for the agent of Lyme disease Borrelia burgdorferi) is reduced by the presence of other less efficient host species. If so, then increasing biodiversity should inhibit pathogen and parasite invasion.MethodsWe investigated this hypothesis by studying invasion of B. burgdorferi and its tick vector Ixodes scapularis in 71 field sites in southeastern Canada. Indices of trapped rodent host diversity, and of biodiversity of the wider community, were investigated as variables explaining the numbers of I. scapularis collected and B. burgdorferi infection in these ticks. A wide range of alternative environmental explanatory variables were also considered.ResultsThe observation of low I. scapularis abundance and low B. burgdorferi infection prevalence in sites where I. scapularis were detected was consistent with early-stage invasion of the vector. There were significant associations between the abundance of ticks and season, year of study and ambient temperature. Abundance of host-seeking larvae was significantly associated with deer density, and abundance of host-seeking larvae and nymphs were positively associated with litter layer depth. Larval host infestations were lower where the relative proportion of non-Peromyscus spp. was high. Infestations of hosts with nymphs were lower when host species richness was higher, but overall nymphal abundance increased with species richness because Peromyscus spp. mouse abundance and host species richness were positively correlated. Nymphal infestations of hosts were lower where tree species richness was higher. B. burgdorferi infection prevalence in ticks varied significantly with an index of rates of migratory bird-borne vector and pathogen invasion.ConclusionsI. scapularis abundance and B. burgdorferi prevalence varied with explanatory variables in patterns consistent with the known biology of these species in general, and in the study region in particular. The evidence for a negative effect of host biodiversity on I. scapularis invasion was mixed. However, some evidence suggests that community biodiversity beyond just host diversity may have direct or indirect inhibitory effects on parasite invasion that warrant further study.

Dataset Information

Reconciling the Entomological Hazard and Disease Risk in the Lyme Disease System.

Publications

Reconciling the Entomological Hazard and Disease Risk in the Lyme Disease System.

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