Dataset Information

Mid upper arm circumference as a predictor of risk of mortality in children in a low resource setting in India.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

In this secondary analysis of data from an intervention trial, we assessed the performance of Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) as a predictor of mortality in children aged 6-59 months from Delhi, India, one year after their initial MUAC measurements were taken. Additionally, we assessed MUAC as an absolute value and MUAC z-scores as predictors of risk of mortality.

Methods

In the trial, children were screened using MUAC prior to referral to the study clinic. These children were revisited a year later to ascertain their vital status. Baseline MUAC and MUAC z-scores were used to categorize children as severely (MUAC <115 mm, MUAC z-score <-3SD) or moderately (MUAC 115 to <125 mm, MUAC z-score <-2SD) malnourished. The proportion of malnutrition, risk of mortality, relative risk estimates, positive predictive value and area under the curve (AUC) by MUAC and MUAC z-scores were calculated.

Results

In the resurvey, the first 36159 children of the 48635 in the initial survey were contacted. Of these, vital status of 34060 (94.2%) was available. The proportion of severe malnutrition by MUAC (<115 mm) was 0.5% with an associated mortality of 4.7% over a one year period and an attributable mortality of 13% while the proportion of the severe malnutrition by MUAC z-score (<-3SDwas 0.9% with an associated mortality of 2.2%.

Conclusions

MUAC is a significant predictor of subsequent mortality in under-five children. In settings where height measurement is not feasible, MUAC can be used as a screening tool for identifying severely malnourished children for management.

SUBMITTER: Taneja S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5983511 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Mid upper arm circumference as a predictor of risk of mortality in children in a low resource setting in India.

Taneja Sunita S Rongsen-Chandola Temsunaro T Mohan Sanjana Brahmawar SB Mazumder Sarmila S Bhandari Nita N Kaur Jasmine J Arya Nikita N Chowdhury Ranadip R Martines Jose Carlos JC Bahl Rajiv R Bhan M K MK

PloS one 20180601 6

<h4>Objective</h4>In this secondary analysis of data from an intervention trial, we assessed the performance of Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) as a predictor of mortality in children aged 6-59 months from Delhi, India, one year after their initial MUAC measurements were taken. Additionally, we assessed MUAC as an absolute value and MUAC z-scores as predictors of risk of mortality.<h4>Methods</h4>In the trial, children were screened using MUAC prior to referral to the study clinic. These chil ...[more]

PMID: 29856757

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Project description:BackgroundMid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) is an independent anthropometric measurement used to identify malnutrition in children. While much research has been dedicated to applying fixed estimates of MUAC to identify cases of malnutrition in children under 5 years of age, far less has been done with age-specific MUAC Z-score values across the continuum of age from birth through adolescence.MethodsThe present study examined the effectiveness of a novel MUAC Z-score tape, in the hands of community health volunteers, to identify children over the age of 5 who would benefit from nutritional rehabilitation. In January of 2019, 112 community health volunteers working within Children International in Guatemala were trained to use the MUAC Z-score tape and asked to collect measurements on children or youth in their communities.ResultsOf the 818 MUAC Z-score tape measurements obtained by volunteers, 88.26% (722/818) were concordant with nutritional risk status as predicted by BMI Z-score, and 90.95% (744/818) were concordant with MUAC Z-score tape measurements made by field medical staff. MUAC Z-scores identified 87.10% (27/31) of the severely or moderately undernourished children as determined by the BMI Z-score who would be candidates for the nutrition rehabilitation program (Z-score ≤ - 2) along with an additional six children that would not have been classified as such with BMI Z-score. A qualitative survey distributed to the volunteers showed moderate rates of understanding of nutritional risk using the tape, and 62.50% reported the tape was easy to use.ConclusionsThese quantitative and qualitative findings suggest that with more in-depth training and education the MUAC Z-score tape is a viable, low-cost, low-burden alternative for community-level nutritional status assessment among the population served by Children International in Guatemala.Supplementary informationSupplementary information accompanies this paper at (10.1186/s13690-019-0370-0).

Project description:According to WHO childhood severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is diagnosed when the weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) is <-3Z of the WHO2006 standards, the mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) is <?115 mm, there is nutritional oedema or any combination of these parameters. Recently there has been a move to eliminate WHZ as a diagnostic criterion on the assertion that children meeting the WHZ criterion are healthy, that MUAC is universally a superior prognostic indicator of mortality and that adding WHZ to the assessment does not improve the prediction; these assertions have lead to a controversy concerning the role of WHZ in the diagnosis of SAM.We examined the mortality experience of 76,887 6-60 month old severely malnourished children admitted for treatment to in-patient, out-patient or supplementary feeding facilities in 18 African countries, of whom 3588 died. They were divided into 7 different diagnostic categories for analysis of mortality rates by comparison of case fatality rates, relative risk of death and meta-analysis of the difference between children admitted using MUAC and WHZ criteria.The mortality rate was higher in those children fulfilling the WHO2006 WHZ criterion than the MUAC criterion. This was the case for younger as well as older children and in all regions except for marasmic children in East Africa. Those fulfilling both criteria had a higher mortality. Nutritional oedema increased the risk of death. Having oedema and a low WHZ dramatically increased the mortality rate whereas addition of the MUAC criterion to either oedema-alone or oedema plus a low WHZ did not further increase the mortality rate. The data were subject to extreme confounding giving Simpson's paradox, which reversed the apparent mortality rates when children fulfilling both WHZ and MUAC criteria were included in the estimation of the risk of death of those fulfilling either the WHZ or MUAC criteria alone.Children with a low WHZ, but a MUAC above the SAM cut-off point are at high risk of death. Simpson's paradox due to confounding from oedema and mathematical coupling may make previous statistical analyses which failed to distinguish the diagnostic groups an unreliable guide to policy. WHZ needs to be retained as an independent criterion for diagnosis of SAM and methods found to identify those children with a low WHZ, but not a low MUAC, in the community.

Project description:Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is diagnosed when the weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) is <-3Z of the WHO2006 standards, or a mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) of <?115 mm or there is nutritional oedema. Although there has been a move to eliminate WHZ as a diagnostic criterion we have shown that children with a low WHZ have at least as high a mortality risk as those with a low MUAC. Here we take the estimated case fatality rates and published case-loads to estimate the proportion of total SAM related deaths occurring in children that would be excluded from treatment with a MUAC-only policy.The effect of varying case-load and mortality rates on the proportion of all deaths that would occur in admitted children was examined. We used the same calculations to estimate the proportion of all SAM-related deaths that would be excluded with a MUAC-only policy in 48 countries with very different relative case loads for SAM by only MUAC, only WHZ and children with both deficits. The case fatality rates (CFR) are taken from simulations, empirical data and the literature.The relative number of cases of SAM by MUAC alone, WHZ alone and those with both criteria have a dominant effect on the proportion of all SAM-related deaths that would occur in children excluded from treatment by a MUAC-only program. Many countries, particularly in the Sahel, West Africa and South East Asia would fail to identify the majority of SAM-related deaths if a MUAC only program were to be implemented. Globally, the estimated minimum number of deaths that would occur among children excluded from treatment in our analyses is 300,000 annually.The number, proportion or attributable fraction of children excluded from treatment with any change of current policy are the correct indicators to guide policy change. CRFs alone should not be used to guide policy in choosing whether or not to drop WHZ as a diagnostic for SAM. All the criteria for diagnosis of malnutrition need to be retained. It is critical that methods are found to identify those children with a low WHZ, but not a low MUAC, in the community so that they will not remain undetected.

Dataset Information

Mid upper arm circumference as a predictor of risk of mortality in children in a low resource setting in India.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Mid upper arm circumference as a predictor of risk of mortality in children in a low resource setting in India.

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