Dataset Information

Adequate life-expectancy reconstruction for adult human mortality data.

ABSTRACT: Mortality information of populations is aggregated in life tables that serve as a basis for calculation of life expectancy and various life disparity measures. Conventional life-table methods address right-censoring inadequately by assuming a constant hazard in the last open-ended age group. As a result, life expectancy can be substantially distorted, especially in the case when the last age group in a life table contains a large proportion of the population. Previous research suggests addressing censoring in a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model setting as this framework incorporates all major features of adult mortality. In this article, we quantify the difference between gamma-Gompertz-Makeham life expectancy values and those published in the largest publicly available high-quality life-table databases for human populations, drawing attention to populations for which life expectancy values should be reconsidered. We also advocate the use of gamma-Gompertz-Makeham life expectancy for three reasons. First, model-based life-expectancy calculation successfully handles the problem of data quality or availability, resulting in severe censoring due to the unification of a substantial number of deaths in the last open-end age group. Second, model-based life expectancies are preferable in the case of data scarcity, i.e. when data contain numerous age groups with zero death counts: here, we provide an example of hunter-gatherer populations. Third, gamma-Gompertz-Makeham-based life expectancy values are almost identical to the ones provided by the major high-quality human mortality databases that use more complicated procedures. Applying a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model to adult mortality data can be used to revise life-expectancy trends for historical populations that usually serve as input for mortality forecasts.

SUBMITTER: Nemeth L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5986123 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Adequate life-expectancy reconstruction for adult human mortality data.

Németh László L Missov Trifon I TI

PloS one 20180604 6

Mortality information of populations is aggregated in life tables that serve as a basis for calculation of life expectancy and various life disparity measures. Conventional life-table methods address right-censoring inadequately by assuming a constant hazard in the last open-ended age group. As a result, life expectancy can be substantially distorted, especially in the case when the last age group in a life table contains a large proportion of the population. Previous research suggests addressin ...[more]

PMID: 29864166

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Project description:BackgroundAdequate access to healthcare is associated with lower risks of mortality at older ages. However, it is largely unknown how many more years of life can be attributed to having adequate access to healthcare compared with having inadequate access to healthcare.MethodA nationwide longitudinal survey of 27,794 older adults aged 65+ in mainland China from 2002 to 2014 was used for analysis. Multivariate hazard models and life table techniques were used to estimate differences in life expectancy associated with self-reported access to healthcare (adequate vs. inadequate). The findings were assessed after adjusting for a wide range of demographic factors, socioeconomic status, family/social support, health practices, and health conditions.ResultsAt age 65, adequate access to healthcare increased life expectancy by approximately 2.0-2.5 years in men and women and across urban-rural areas compared with those who reported inadequate access to healthcare. At age 85, the corresponding increase in life expectancy was 1.0-1.2 years. After adjustment for multiple confounding factors, the increase in life expectancy was reduced to approximately 1.1-1.5 years at age 65 and 0.6-0.8 years at age 85. In women, the net increase in life expectancy attributable to adequate access to healthcare was 6 and 8% at ages 65 and 85, respectively. In men, the net increases in life expectancy were generally greater (10 and 14%) and consistent after covariate adjustments. In contrast, the increase in life expectancy was slightly lower in rural areas (2.0 years at age 65 and 1.0 years at age 85) than in urban areas (2.1 years at age 65 and 1.1 years age 85) when no confounding factors were taken into account. However, the increase in life expectancy was greater in rural areas (1.0 years at age 65 and 0.6 years at age 85) than in urban areas (0.4 years at age 65 and 0.2 years at age 85) after accounting for socioeconomic and other factors.ConclusionsAdequate access to healthcare was associated with longer life expectancy among older adults in China. These findings have important implications for efforts to improve access to healthcare among older populations in China.

Project description:AimsSince dietary sodium intake has been identified as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and premature death, a high sodium intake can be expected to curtail life span. We tested this hypothesis by analysing the relationship between sodium intake and life expectancy as well as survival in 181 countries worldwide.Methods and resultsWe correlated age-standardized estimates of country-specific average sodium consumption with healthy life expectancy at birth and at age of 60 years, death due to non-communicable diseases and all-cause mortality for the year of 2010, after adjusting for potential confounders such as gross domestic product per capita and body mass index. We considered global health estimates as provided by World Health Organization. Among the 181 countries included in this analysis, we found a positive correlation between sodium intake and healthy life expectancy at birth (β = 2.6 years/g of daily sodium intake, R2 = 0.66, P < 0.001), as well as healthy life expectancy at age 60 (β = 0.3 years/g of daily sodium intake, R2 = 0.60, P = 0.048) but not for death due to non-communicable diseases (β = 17 events/g of daily sodium intake, R2 = 0.43, P = 0.100). Conversely, all-cause mortality correlated inversely with sodium intake (β = -131 events/g of daily sodium intake, R2 = 0.60, P < 0.001). In a sensitivity analysis restricted to 46 countries in the highest income class, sodium intake continued to correlate positively with healthy life expectancy at birth (β = 3.4 years/g of daily sodium intake, R2 = 0.53, P < 0.001) and inversely with all-cause mortality (β = -168 events/g of daily sodium intake, R2 = 0.50, P < 0.001).ConclusionOur observation of sodium intake correlating positively with life expectancy and inversely with all-cause mortality worldwide and in high-income countries argues against dietary sodium intake being a culprit of curtailing life span or a risk factor for premature death. These data are observational and should not be used as a base for nutritional interventions.

Project description:BackgroundWhile many studies have examined differences between body mass index (BMI) categories in terms of mortality risk and health-related quality of life (HRQL), little is known about the effect of body weight on health expectancy. We examined life expectancy (LE), health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE), and proportion of LE spent in nonoptimal (or poor) health by BMI category for the Canadian adult population (age ? 20).MethodsRespondents to the National Population Health Survey (NPHS) were followed for mortality outcomes from 1994 to 2009. Our study population at baseline (n=12,478) was 20 to 100 years old with an average age of 47. LE was produced by building abridged life tables by sex and BMI category using data from the NPHS and the Canadian Chronic Disease Surveillance System. HALE was estimated using the Health Utilities Index from the Canadian Community Health Survey as a measure of HRQL. The contribution of HRQL to loss of healthy life years for each BMI category was also assessed using two methods: by calculating differences between LE and HALE proportional to LE and by using a decomposition technique to separate out mortality and HRQL contributions to loss of HALE.ResultsAt age 20, for both sexes, LE is significantly lower in the underweight and obesity class 2+ categories, but significantly higher in the overweight category when compared to normal weight (obesity class 1 was nonsignificant). HALE at age 20 follows these same associations and is significantly lower for class 1 obesity in women. Proportion of life spent in nonoptimal health and decomposition of HALE demonstrate progressively higher losses of healthy life associated with lowered HRQL for BMI categories in excess of normal weight.ConclusionsAlthough being in the overweight category for adults may be associated with a gain in life expectancy as compared to normal weight adults, overweight individuals also experience a higher proportion of these years of life in poorer health. Due to the descriptive nature of this study, further research is needed to explore the causal mechanisms which explain these results, including the important differences we observed between sexes and within obesity subcategories.

Project description:ImportanceAdvances in childhood and adolescent cancer treatment have been associated with increased rates of cure during the past 3 decades; however, improvement in adult life expectancy for these individuals has not yet been reported.ObjectivesTo project long-term survival and assess whether life expectancy will improve among adult survivors of childhood cancer who were treated in more recent decades.Design, setting, and participantsA microsimulation model of competing mortality risks was developed using data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study on 5-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed between 1970 and 1999. The model included (1) late recurrence, (2) treatment-related late effects (health-related [subsequent cancers, cardiac events, pulmonary conditions, and other] and external causes), and (3) US background mortality rates.ExposuresTreatment subgroups (no treatment or surgery only, chemotherapy alone, radiotherapy alone, and radiotherapy with chemotherapy) and individuals with acute lymphoblastic leukemia during childhood by era (1970-1979, 1980-1989, and 1990-1999).Main outcomes and measuresConditional life expectancy (defined as the number of years a 5-year survivor can expect to live), cumulative cause-specific mortality risk, and 10-year mortality risks conditional on attaining ages of 30, 40, 50, and 60 years.ResultsAmong the hypothetical cohort of 5-year survivors of childhood cancer representative of the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study participants (44% female and 56% male; mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 7.3 [5.6] years), conditional life expectancy was 48.5 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 47.6-49.6 years) for 5-year survivors diagnosed in 1970-1979, 53.7 years (95% UI, 52.6-54.7 years) for those diagnosed in 1980-1989, and 57.1 years (95% UI, 55.9-58.1 years) for those diagnosed in 1990-1999. Compared with individuals without a history of cancer, these results represented a gap in life expectancy of 25% (95% UI, 24%-27%) (16.5 years [95% UI, 15.5-17.5 years]) for those diagnosed in 1970-1979, 19% (95% UI, 17%-20%) (12.3 years [95% UI, 11.3-13.4 years]) for those diagnosed in 1980-1989, and 14% (95% UI, 13%-16%) (9.2 years [95% UI, 8.3-10.4 years]) for those diagnosed in 1990-1999. During the 3 decades, the proportion of survivors treated with chemotherapy alone increased (from 18% in 1970-1979 to 54% in 1990-1999), and the life expectancy gap in this chemotherapy-alone group decreased from 11.0 years (95% UI, 9.0-13.1 years) to 6.0 years (95% UI, 4.5-7.6 years). In contrast, during the same time frame, only modest improvements in the gap in life expectancy were projected for survivors treated with radiotherapy (21.0 years [95% UI, 18.5-23.2 years] to 17.6 years [95% UI, 14.2-21.2 years]) or with radiotherapy and chemotherapy (17.9 years [95% UI, 16.7-19.2 years] to 14.8 years [95% UI, 13.1-16.7 years]). For the largest group of survivors by diagnosis-those with acute lymphoblastic leukemia-the gap in life expectancy decreased from 14.7 years (95% UI, 12.8-16.5 years) in 1970-1979 to 8.0 years (95% UI, 6.2-9.7 years).Conclusions and relevanceEvolving treatment approaches are projected to be associated with improved life expectancy after treatment for pediatric cancer, in particular among those who received chemotherapy alone for their childhood cancer diagnosis. Despite improvements, survivors remain at risk for shorter lifespans, especially when radiotherapy was included as part of their childhood cancer treatment.

Dataset Information

Adequate life-expectancy reconstruction for adult human mortality data.

Publications

Adequate life-expectancy reconstruction for adult human mortality data.

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