Dataset Information

A Predictive Model for Estimation Risk of Proliferative Lupus Nephritis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Lupus nephritis (LN) is classified by renal biopsy into proliferative and nonproliferative forms, with distinct prognoses, but renal biopsy is not available for every LN patient. The present study aimed to establish an alternate tool by building a predictive model to evaluate the probability of proliferative LN.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort with biopsy-proven LN, 382 patients in development cohort, 193 in internal validation cohort, and 164 newly diagnosed patients in external validation cohort were selected. Logistic regression model was established, and the concordance statistics (C-statistics), Akaike information criterion (AIC), integrated discrimination improvement, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and net reclassification improvement were calculated to evaluate the performance and validation of models.

Results

The prevalence of proliferative LN was 77.7% in the whole cohort. A model, including age, gender, systolic blood pressure, hemoglobin, proteinuria, hematuria, and serum C3, performed well on good-of-fit and discrimination in the development chohort to predict the risk of proliferative LN (291 for AIC and 0.84 for C-statistics). In the internal and external validation cohorts, this model showed good capability for discrimination and calibration (0.84 and 0.82 for C-statistics, and 0.99 and 0.75 for P values, respectively).

Conclusion

This study developed and validated a model including demographic and clinical indices to evaluate the probability of presenting proliferative LN to guide therapeutic decisions and outcomes.

SUBMITTER: Chen DN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5987496 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A Predictive Model for Estimation Risk of Proliferative Lupus Nephritis.

Chen Dong-Ni DN Fan Li L Wu Yu-Xi YX Zhou Qian Q Chen Wei W Yu Xue-Qing XQ

Chinese medical journal 20180601 11

<h4>Background</h4>Lupus nephritis (LN) is classified by renal biopsy into proliferative and nonproliferative forms, with distinct prognoses, but renal biopsy is not available for every LN patient. The present study aimed to establish an alternate tool by building a predictive model to evaluate the probability of proliferative LN.<h4>Methods</h4>In this retrospective cohort with biopsy-proven LN, 382 patients in development cohort, 193 in internal validation cohort, and 164 newly diagnosed patie ...[more]

PMID: 29786038

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Project description:IntroductionSystemic lupus erythematosus (SLE or lupus) is a chronic autoimmune disease, and kidney involvement with SLE, a.k.a. lupus nephritis (LN), is a frequent and severe complication of SLE that increases patient morbidity and mortality. About 50% of patients with SLE encounter renal abnormalities which, if left untreated, can lead to end-stage renal disease. Kidney biopsy is considered the criterion standard for diagnosis and staging of LN using the International Society of Nephrology/Renal Pathology Society (ISN/RPS) classification, which was developed to help predict renal outcomes and assist with medical decision-making. However, kidney biopsy-based classification of LN is highly invasive and impractical for real-time monitoring of LN status. Here, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy-based metabolic profiling was used to identify urinary metabolites that discriminated between proliferative and pure membranous LN as defined by the ISN/RPS classification, and between LN and primary focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS).MethodsMetabolic profiling was conducted using urine samples of patients with proliferative LN without membranous features (Class III/IV; n = 7) or pure membranous LN (Class V; n = 7). Patients with primary FSGS and proteinuria (n = 10) served as disease controls. For each patient, demographic information and clinical data was obtained and a random urine sample collected to measure NMR spectra. Data and sample collection for patients with LN occurred around the time of kidney biopsy. Metabolic profiling analysis was done by visual inspection and principal component analysis.ResultsUrinary citrate levels were 8-fold lower in Class V LN compared to Class III/IV patients, who had normal levels of urinary citrate (P < 0.05). Class III/IV LN patients had > 10-fold lower levels of urinary taurine compared to Class V patients, who had mostly normal levels (P < 0.01). Class V LN patients had normal urinary hippurate levels compared to FSGS patients, who completely lacked urinary hippurate (P < 0.001).ConclusionsThis pilot study indicated differences in urinary metabolites between proliferative LN and pure membranous LN patients, and between LN and FSGS patients. If confirmed in larger studies, these urine metabolites may serve as biomarkers to help discriminate between different classes of LN, and between LN and FSGS.

Project description:Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is an antimalarial agent used to treat mucocutaneous, musculoskeletal, constitutional manifestations of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This study assessed the efficacy and side effects of HCQ in children with proliferative lupus nephritis (LN). This double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial study was conducted on 60 children with proliferative LN classes III and IV treated with steroids and a mycophenolate (MMF) regimen. Patients were categorized into two groups, the HCQ group (n = 30) and the placebo group (n = 30). They were evaluated initially at 6- and a 12-month follow-up by mucocutaneous, ophthalmological examination, and investigations (BUN, creatinine, 24 h proteinuria, triglycerides (TG), cholesterol, Antids-DNA, C3, C4). Disease activity was assessed using the SLE disease activity index (SLEDAI-2 k). After 12 months, TG, cholesterol, 24 h proteinuria, Antids-DNA, and SLEDAI score were significantly decreased in the HCQ group (P: 0.002, 0.012, 0.031, 0.001, respectively). After 12 months, the cumulative probabilities of developing primary end-points (LN partial and complete remission) were 40% and 60% in the HCQ group versus 53.3% and 36.7% in the placebo group (P: 0.002). After 12 months, the HCQ group experienced mucocutaneous alopecia (3.3%), hyperpigmentation (10%), and ophthalmological mild retinal changes (6.7%), but they did not differ significantly from the placebo group. Cunclusion: HCQ improved the disease and LN activity in children with proliferative LN, with documented skin hyperpigmentation and mild retinal changes following HCQ use in a few cases. This study was registered on http://www.Clinicaltrialsgov/ with trial registration number (TRN): NCT03687905, September 2018 "retrospectively registered."What is known• Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is documented as an adjunctive treatment in children with systemic lupus erythematosus (c-SLE) LN with efficacy in improving lupus musculoskeletal and mucocutaneous manifestations. • Due to the paucity of studies, its effects and side effects in children with LN remain unclear.What is new• This pilot randomized clinical trial assessed the efficacy and adverse effects of HCQ in children with proliferative LN. • HCQ had numerous advantages for LN, including rapid and sustained remission, antilipidemic effect, and rapid improvement of kidney functions.

Dataset Information

A Predictive Model for Estimation Risk of Proliferative Lupus Nephritis.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

A Predictive Model for Estimation Risk of Proliferative Lupus Nephritis.

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