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A novel risk score for hepatocellular carcinoma in Asian cirrhotic patients: a multicentre prospective cohort study.


ABSTRACT: Liver cirrhotic patients suffer from a seemingly unpredictable risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here, an HCC risk score R (0 ≦ R ≦ 1) was derived from commonly tested haematological and biochemical parameters. In the score-derivation Taiwanese cohort (144 cirrhosis versus 48 HCC-remission patients), the score had an area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61-0.78, P < 0.001). When validated in a Korean cohort (78 cirrhosis versus 23 HCC-remission patients), the AUC was 0.68 (CI, 0.56-0.80, P = 0.009). In a multicentre prospective cohort (478 cirrhotic patients prospectively followed for HCC occurrence), the hazard ratio with respect to R was 2.344 (CI = 1.183-4.646, P = 0.015). The cumulative incidences of HCC at two years after patient enrolment were 9.6% and 1.7% for the high-risk (R ≧ 0.5) and low-risk (R < 0.5) groups, respectively (P < 0.001). At the end of the study, the incidences were 10.9% and 5.0%, respectively (P = 0.012). The majority of HCCs (23/26) in the high-risk group emerged within the first two years of follow-up. In conclusion, an HCC risk score was developed for cirrhotic patients that effectively predicted HCC in a prospective cohort study.

SUBMITTER: Liang KH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5988718 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A novel risk score for hepatocellular carcinoma in Asian cirrhotic patients: a multicentre prospective cohort study.

Liang Kung-Hao KH   Ahn Sang Hoon SH   Lee Hye Wong HW   Huang Ya-Hui YH   Chien Rong-Nan RN   Hu Tsung-Hui TH   Lin Kwang-Huei KH   Yeh Christopher Sung-Huan CS   Hsu Chao-Wei CW   Lin Chih-Lang CL   Pan Tai-Long TL   Ke Po-Yuan PY   Chang Ming-Ling ML   Yeh Chau-Ting CT  

Scientific reports 20180605 1


Liver cirrhotic patients suffer from a seemingly unpredictable risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here, an HCC risk score R (0 ≦ R ≦ 1) was derived from commonly tested haematological and biochemical parameters. In the score-derivation Taiwanese cohort (144 cirrhosis versus 48 HCC-remission patients), the score had an area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61-0.78, P < 0.001). When validated in a Korean cohort (78 cirrhosis versus 23 HCC-remission patients), the  ...[more]

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