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Causes of irregularities in trends of global mean surface temperature since the late 19th century.

ABSTRACT: The time series of monthly global mean surface temperature (GST) since 1891 is successfully reconstructed from known natural and anthropogenic forcing factors, including internal climate variability, using a multiple regression technique. Comparisons are made with the performance of 40 CMIP5 models in predicting GST. The relative contributions of the various forcing factors to GST changes vary in time, but most of the warming since 1891 is found to be attributable to the net influence of increasing greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Separate statistically independent analyses are also carried out for three periods of GST slowdown (1896-1910, 1941-1975, and 1998-2013 and subperiods); two periods of strong warming (1911-1940 and 1976-1997) are also analyzed. A reduction in total incident solar radiation forcing played a significant cooling role over 2001-2010. The only serious disagreements between the reconstructions and observations occur during the Second World War, especially in the period 1944-1945, when observed near-worldwide sea surface temperatures (SSTs) may be significantly warm-biased. In contrast, reconstructions of near-worldwide SSTs were rather warmer than those observed between about 1907 and 1910. However, the generally high reconstruction accuracy shows that known external and internal forcing factors explain all the main variations in GST between 1891 and 2015, allowing for our current understanding of their uncertainties. Accordingly, no important additional factors are needed to explain the two main warming and three main slowdown periods during this epoch.

SUBMITTER: Folland CK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5990305 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Causes of irregularities in trends of global mean surface temperature since the late 19th century.

Folland Chris K CK Boucher Olivier O Colman Andrew A Parker David E DE

Science advances 20180606 6

The time series of monthly global mean surface temperature (GST) since 1891 is successfully reconstructed from known natural and anthropogenic forcing factors, including internal climate variability, using a multiple regression technique. Comparisons are made with the performance of 40 CMIP5 models in predicting GST. The relative contributions of the various forcing factors to GST changes vary in time, but most of the warming since 1891 is found to be attributable to the net influence of increas ...[more]

PMID: 29881771

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Project description:The study of violin recordings as evidence of interpretation and performance approach has been quite extensive throughout recent decades. Findings such as the limited use of vibrato in early recordings, the relative stabilization of tempo and rhythm characteristic of mid-20th century violin playing, or the effect of 'historically informed performance' (HIP) on 'mainstream' (MS) violinists performing early music repertoire, are fundamental in the identification of prevailing norms of practice and changes of style that have occurred over time. However, compared to the considerable amount of research conducted on 20th century playing, studies focusing on 21st century violin performances are still quite limited, and are mostly based on recordings of J. S. Bach's sonatas and partitas for solo violin. This paper examines contemporary violin recordings made in recent decades (1999-2017). It aims to explore the most current trends in early 21st century violin performance practices and identify the impact of HIP principles on the new generation of players. Unlike most previous research, it focuses on recordings made to 19th century repertoire, thus enlarging the spectrum to include performance analysis of a relatively untouched field and enabling examination of the degree and manner of incorporating 19th century performance attributes (e.g., utilization of rhythmic unevenness, portamento or harmonics) into contemporary praxis. Results suggest an extensive blend of stylistic approaches among currently active violinists, putting into question the relevance of the traditional distinction made between HIP and MS performance styles when it comes to current performance vogue. Incorporating 19th century performance devices while playing 19th century music was traced in varying degrees. Findings are suggested as being part of a general, quasi-postmodern quest for pluralism and elimination of hierarchical classifications, representing an era of 'over-choice' environment.

Dataset Information

Causes of irregularities in trends of global mean surface temperature since the late 19th century.

Publications

Causes of irregularities in trends of global mean surface temperature since the late 19th century.

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