Dataset Information

The alternative prey hypothesis revisited: Still valid for willow ptarmigan population dynamics.

ABSTRACT: The alternative prey hypothesis predicts that the interaction between generalist predators and their main prey is a major driver of population dynamics of alternative prey species. In Fennoscandia, changes in climate and human land use are assumed to alter the dynamics of cyclic small rodents (main prey) and lead to increased densities and range expansion of an important generalist predator, the red fox Vulpes vulpes. In order to better understand the role of these potential changes in community structure on an alternative prey species, willow ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus, we analyzed nine years of population census data from SE Norway to investigate how community interactions affected their population dynamics. The ptarmigan populations showed no declining trend during the study period, and annual variations corresponded with marked periodic small rodent peaks and declines. Population growth and breeding success were highly correlated, and both demographic variables were influenced by an interaction between red fox and small rodents. Red foxes affected ptarmigan negatively only when small rodent abundance was low, which is in accordance with the alternative prey hypothesis. Our results confirm the important role of red fox predation in ptarmigan dynamics, and indicate that if small rodent cycles are disrupted, this may lead to decline in ptarmigan and other alternative prey species due to elevated predation pressure.

SUBMITTER: Breisjoberget JI

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5991367 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The alternative prey hypothesis revisited: Still valid for willow ptarmigan population dynamics.

Breisjøberget Jo Inge JI Odden Morten M Wegge Per P Zimmermann Barbara B Andreassen Harry H

PloS one 20180606 6

The alternative prey hypothesis predicts that the interaction between generalist predators and their main prey is a major driver of population dynamics of alternative prey species. In Fennoscandia, changes in climate and human land use are assumed to alter the dynamics of cyclic small rodents (main prey) and lead to increased densities and range expansion of an important generalist predator, the red fox Vulpes vulpes. In order to better understand the role of these potential changes in community ...[more]

PMID: 29874270

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Project description:Populations of rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) in Iceland fluctuate in multiannual cycles with peak numbers c. every 10 years. We studied the ptarmigan-parasite community and how parasites relate to ptarmigan age, body condition, and population density. We collected 632 ptarmigan in northeast Iceland in early October from 2006 to 2012; 630 (99.7%) were infected with at least one parasite species, 616 (98%) with ectoparasites, and 536 (85%) with endoparasites. We analysed indices for the combined parasite community (16 species) and known pathogenic parasites, two coccidian protozoans Eimeria muta and Eimeria rjupa, two nematodes Capillaria caudinflata and Trichostrongylus tenuis, one chewing louse Amyrsidea lagopi, and one skin mite Metamicrolichus islandicus. Juveniles overall had more ectoparasites than adults, but endoparasite levels were similar in both groups. Ptarmigan population density was associated with endoparasites, and in particular prevalence of the coccidian parasite Eimeria muta. Annual aggregation level of this eimerid fluctuated inversely with prevalence, with lows at prevalence peak and vice versa. Both prevalence and aggregation of E. muta tracked ptarmigan population density with a 1.5 year time lag. The time lag could be explained by the host specificity of this eimerid, host density dependent shedding of oocysts, and their persistence in the environment from one year to the next. Ptarmigan body condition was negatively associated with E. muta prevalence, an indication of their pathogenicity, and this eimerid was also positively associated with ptarmigan mortality and marginally inversely with fecundity. There were also significant associations between fecundity and chewing louse Amyrsidea lagopi prevalence (negative), excess juvenile mortality and nematode Capillaria caudinflata prevalence (positive), and adult mortality and skin mite Metamicrolichus islandicus prevalence (negative). Though this study is correlational, it provides strong evidence that E. muta through time-lag in prevalence with respect to host population size and by showing significant relations with host body condition, mortality, and fecundity could destabilize ptarmigan population dynamics in Iceland.

Project description:Specialist predators with oscillating dynamics are often strongly affected by the population dynamics of their prey, yet they are not always the cause of prey cycling. Only those that exert strong (delayed) regulation of their prey can be. Inferring predator-prey coupling from time series therefore requires contrasting models with top-down versus bottom-up predator-prey dynamics. We study here the joint dynamics of population densities of the Icelandic gyrfalcon Falco rusticolus, and its prey, the rock ptarmigan Lagopus muta. The dynamics of both species are likely not only linked to each other but also to stochastic weather variables acting as confounding factors. We infer the degree of coupling between populations, as well as forcing by abiotic variables, using multivariate autoregressive models MAR(p), with p = 1 and 2 time lags. MAR(2) models, allowing for species to cycle independently from each other, further suggest alternative scenarios where a cyclic prey influences its predator but not the other way around (i.e., bottom-up scenarios). The classical MAR(1) model predicts that the time series exhibit predator-prey feedback (i.e., reciprocal dynamic influence between prey and predator), and that weather effects are weak and only affecting the gyrfalcon population. Bottom-up MAR(2) models produced a better fit but less realistic cross-correlation patterns. Simulations of MAR(1) and MAR(2) models further demonstrate that the top-down MAR(1) models are more likely to be misidentified as bottom-up dynamics than vice versa. We therefore conclude that predator-prey feedback in the gyrfalcon-ptarmigan system is likely the main cause of observed oscillations, though bottom-up dynamics cannot yet be excluded with certainty. Overall, we showed how to make more out of ecological time series by using simulations to gauge the quality of model identification, and paved the way for more mechanistic modeling of this system by narrowing the set of important biotic and abiotic drivers.

Dataset Information

The alternative prey hypothesis revisited: Still valid for willow ptarmigan population dynamics.

Publications

The alternative prey hypothesis revisited: Still valid for willow ptarmigan population dynamics.

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