Dataset Information

The long-range correlation and evolution law of centennial-scale temperatures in Northeast China.

ABSTRACT: This paper applies the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to investigate the long-range correlation of monthly mean temperatures from three typical measurement stations at Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang in Northeast China from 1909 to 2014. The results reveal the memory characteristics of the climate system in this region. By comparing the temperatures from different time periods and investigating the variations of its scaling exponents at the three stations during these different time periods, we found that the monthly mean temperature has long-range correlation, which indicates that the temperature in Northeast China has long-term memory and good predictability. The monthly time series of temperatures over the past 106 years also shows good long-range correlation characteristics. These characteristics are also obviously observed in the annual mean temperature time series. Finally, we separated the centennial-length temperature time series into two time periods. These results reveal that the long-range correlations at the Harbin station over these two time periods have large variations, whereas no obvious variations are observed at the other two stations. This indicates that warming affects the regional climate system's predictability differently at different time periods. The research results can provide a quantitative reference point for regional climate predictability assessment and future climate model evaluation.

SUBMITTER: Zheng X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5991411 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The long-range correlation and evolution law of centennial-scale temperatures in Northeast China.

Zheng Xiaohui X Lian Yi Y Wang Qiguang Q

PloS one 20180606 6

This paper applies the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to investigate the long-range correlation of monthly mean temperatures from three typical measurement stations at Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang in Northeast China from 1909 to 2014. The results reveal the memory characteristics of the climate system in this region. By comparing the temperatures from different time periods and investigating the variations of its scaling exponents at the three stations during these different time ...[more]

PMID: 29874281

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Project description:Long-term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long-term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively few studies have used multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective. The black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) is a large capercaillie (classified as Least Concern [LC] on the IUCN red list) that has undergone a dramatic decline in population during the late 20th century and is considered endangered. Its conservation status is pessimistic, and the species requires immediate protection. Therefore, we supplemented a historical dataset to identify changes in this bird's range and population in northeast China over the long term. The study area spanned Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and the northeast corner of Inner Mongolia in northeast China. We integrated an ecological niche model (BIOMOD2) with long-term ecological data on this species to estimate the magnitude of change in distribution over time. Our results revealed a 35.25% reduction in the current distribution of this species compared to their potential distribution in the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue under climate change. For example, the future range loss was estimated to be 38.79 ± 0.22% (8.64-90.19%), and the actual state could be worse, because the baseline range of the model was greater than the real range in the 2000s, showing a 12.39% overestimation. To overcome this poor outlook, a conservation strategy should be established in sensitive areas, including the southwestern Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Lesser Khingan Mountains. Actions that should be considered include field investigations, establishing a monitor network, designing ecological corridors, and cooperating with local inhabitants, governments, and conservation biologists to improve the conservation of the black-billed capercaillie.

Dataset Information

The long-range correlation and evolution law of centennial-scale temperatures in Northeast China.

Publications

The long-range correlation and evolution law of centennial-scale temperatures in Northeast China.

Similar Datasets

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