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Predicting Potential Adverse Events During a Skilled Nursing Facility Stay: A Skilled Nursing Facility Prognosis Score.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:To derive a risk prediction score for potential adverse outcomes in older adults transitioning to a skilled nursing facility (SNF) from the hospital. DESIGN:Retrospective analysis. SETTING:Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (2003-11). PARTICIPANTS:Previously community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries who were hospitalized and discharged to SNF for postacute care (N=2,043). MEASUREMENTS:Risk factors included demographic characteristics, comorbidities, health status, hospital length of stay, prior SNF stays, SNF size and ownership, treatments received, physical function, and active signs or symptoms at time of SNF admission. The primary outcome was a composite of undesirable outcomes from the patient perspective, including hospital readmission during the SNF stay, long SNF stay (?100 days), and death during the SNF stay. RESULTS:Of the 2,043 previously community-dwelling beneficiaries hospitalized and discharged to a SNF for post-acute care, 589 (28.8%) experienced one of the three outcomes, with readmission (19.4%) most common, followed by mortality (10.5%) and long SNF stay (3.5%). A risk score including 5 factors (Barthel Index, Charlson-Deyo comorbidity score, hospital length of stay, heart failure diagnosis, presence of an indwelling catheter) demonstrated very good discrimination (C-statistic=0.75), accuracy (Brier score=0.17), and calibration for observed and expected events. CONCLUSION:Older adults frequently experience potentially adverse outcomes in transitions to a SNF from the hospital; this novel score could be used to better match resources with patient risk.

SUBMITTER: Burke RE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5992035 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting Potential Adverse Events During a Skilled Nursing Facility Stay: A Skilled Nursing Facility Prognosis Score.

Burke Robert E RE Hess Edward E Barón Anna E AE Levy Cari C Donzé Jacques D JD

Journal of the American Geriatrics Society 20180302 5

<h4>Objectives</h4>To derive a risk prediction score for potential adverse outcomes in older adults transitioning to a skilled nursing facility (SNF) from the hospital.<h4>Design</h4>Retrospective analysis.<h4>Setting</h4>Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (2003-11).<h4>Participants</h4>Previously community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries who were hospitalized and discharged to SNF for postacute care (N=2,043).<h4>Measurements</h4>Risk factors included demographic characteristics, comorbidities ...[more]

PMID: 29500814

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Project description:ImportanceSkilled nursing facility (SNF) changes in ownership are receiving attention in the national conversation regarding health care quality and oversight. SNF ownership changes have been cited as possible ways for SNFs to obscure financial arrangements and shift funds away from patient care; however, it is unclear whether ownership changes are associated with quality outcomes, especially for short-stay patients.ObjectiveTo determine which SNF characteristics are associated with changes in ownership and whether ownership changes were associated with differences in short-stay patient outcomes.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study was a secondary analysis of 2016 to 2019 Medicare administrative data including SNFs in the United States with complete data. Data were analyzed from January 2016 through December 2019.ExposureSNF change in ownership.Main outcomes and measuresOutcomes of interest were facility-level risk-adjusted rates of hospital readmissions, emergency department visits, and community discharge for short-stay patients after admission to an SNF. Analyses were conducted using multivariable logistic regression and controlled interrupted time series.ResultsOf 11 004 SNFs, 1459 (13.26%) changed ownership between 2016 and 2019. Compared with for-profit SNFs, nonprofit and government SNFs had lower odds of changing ownership (nonprofit: odds ratio [OR], 0.40; 95% CI, 0.32-0.49; government: OR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.17-0.41). Chain SNFs had higher odds of changing ownership than nonchain SNFs (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.21-1.59). Urban SNFs with lower occupancy rates (OR per 10-percentage-point decrease, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.14-1.25), larger Medicaid populations (OR per 10-percentage-point increase, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.22), and lower staffing ratings (OR per 1-star increase on staffing rating, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.14-1.25) had higher odds of changing ownership. Descriptively, all 3 quality outcomes were worse throughout the study in SNFs undergoing ownership change compared with controls that did not change ownership. However, results of interrupted time series models found no associations between an ownership change and hospital readmissions or community discharge rates. Ownership change was associated with a short-term increase of 0.32 (95% CI, 0.03 to 0.62) percentage points in emergency department visits.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of 11 004 SNFs in the US between 2016 and 2019, SNF characteristics historically associated with lower quality were more likely to change ownership; however, ownership changes were only associated with short-term increases in ED visits. These results suggest that SNF ownership changes may be a symptom, not a cause, of lower quality.

Project description:IntroductionShorter length of stays (LOS) at a Skilled Nursing Facility (SNF) after hip fracture surgery would be expected to lead to costs savings for the healthcare system. Evidence also suggests that shorter SNF stays also leads to improved 30-day outcomes, thus compounding this value proposition. Our Integrated Fragility Hip Fracture Program created a simple algorithm at discharge to provide each post-operative hip fracture patient with an expected SNF LOS. We studied whether this intervention produced a shorter SNF LOS and other observable short-term outcomes.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed all original Medicare hip fracture patients treated with operative fixation who were admitted to our hospital in 2015, 2017 and 2018. We selected patients who were discharged to a single SNF following hospitalization, and excluded patients with incomplete records. The algorithm for the expected LOS recommendation was based on the degree of assistance the patient needed for ambulation: 7 days ("0-person assist"), 14 days ("1-person assist"), or 21 days ("2-person assist"). We compare the SNF LOS of our hip fracture patient population between those discharged to a program participant, those SNF that agreed to this algorithm, and those discharged to a non-program participant SNF.ResultsWe identified 246 patients meeting our selection criteria. 69 were discharged to a program participant SNF. Patients discharged to a participant SNF had similar baseline demographics and ASA distributions to those discharged to a non-participant provider. There was a statistically significant difference in length of stay between the groups, with program participant patients spending an average of 23 days at the SNF while the control group spent an average of 31 days. (p < 0.001). Program participant discharges were also associated with additional cost savings. There was no significant difference in ED visits within 90 days of discharge.DiscussionSNF LOS for geriatric hip fractures can be decreased with implementation of a simple physical therapy driven algorithm based on the patient's ambulatory independence at hospital discharge. Conclusion: This is a simple, yet completely unique program that seems to have increased the value of healthcare provided.

Dataset Information

Predicting Potential Adverse Events During a Skilled Nursing Facility Stay: A Skilled Nursing Facility Prognosis Score.

Publications

Predicting Potential Adverse Events During a Skilled Nursing Facility Stay: A Skilled Nursing Facility Prognosis Score.

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