Dataset Information

Risk factors and variations in detection of new bovine tuberculosis breakdowns via slaughterhouse surveillance in Great Britain.

ABSTRACT: Slaughterhouse surveillance through post-mortem meat inspection provides an important mechanism for detecting bovine tuberculosis (bTB) infections in cattle herds in Great Britain (GB), complementary to the live animal skin test based programme. We explore patterns in the numbers of herd breakdowns detected through slaughterhouse surveillance and develop a Bayesian hierarchical regression model to assess the associations of animal-level factors with the odds of an infected animal being detected in the slaughterhouse, allowing us to highlight slaughterhouses that show atypical patterns of detection. The analyses demonstrate that the numbers and proportions of breakdowns detected in slaughterhouses increased in GB over the period of study (1998-2013). The odds of an animal being a slaughterhouse case was strongly associated with the region of the country that the animal spent most of its life, with animals living in high-frequency testing areas of England having on average 21 times the odds of detection compared to animals living in Scotland. There was also a strong effect of age, with animals slaughtered at > 60 months of age having 5.3 times the odds of detection compared to animals slaughtered between 0-18 months of age. Smaller effects were observed for cattle having spent time on farms with a history of bTB, quarter of the year that the animal was slaughtered, movement and test history. Over-and-above these risks, the odds of detection increased by a factor of 1.1 for each year of the study. After adjustment for these variables, there were additional variations in risk between slaughterhouses and breed. Our framework has been adopted into the routine annual surveillance reporting carried out by the Animal Plant Health Agency and may be used to target more detailed investigation of meat inspection practices.

SUBMITTER: McKinley TJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5993271 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk factors and variations in detection of new bovine tuberculosis breakdowns via slaughterhouse surveillance in Great Britain.

McKinley Trevelyan J TJ Lipschutz-Powell Debby D Mitchell Andrew P AP Wood James L N JLN Conlan Andrew J K AJK

PloS one 20180608 6

Slaughterhouse surveillance through post-mortem meat inspection provides an important mechanism for detecting bovine tuberculosis (bTB) infections in cattle herds in Great Britain (GB), complementary to the live animal skin test based programme. We explore patterns in the numbers of herd breakdowns detected through slaughterhouse surveillance and develop a Bayesian hierarchical regression model to assess the associations of animal-level factors with the odds of an infected animal being detected ...[more]

PMID: 29883466

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Project description:The number of cattle herds placed under movement restrictions in Great Britain (GB) due to the suspected presence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has progressively increased over the past 25 years despite an intensive and costly test-and-slaughter control program. Around 38% of herds that clear movement restrictions experience a recurrent incident (breakdown) within 24 months, suggesting that infection may be persisting within herds. Reactivity to tuberculin, the basis of diagnostic testing, is dependent on the time from infection. Thus, testing efficiency varies between outbreaks, depending on weight of transmission and cannot be directly estimated. In this paper, we use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to parameterize two within-herd transmission models within a rigorous inferential framework. Previous within-herd models of bTB have relied on ad-hoc methods of parameterization and used a single model structure (SORI) where animals are assumed to become detectable by testing before they become infectious. We study such a conventional within-herd model of bTB and an alternative model, motivated by recent animal challenge studies, where there is no period of epidemiological latency before animals become infectious (SOR). Under both models we estimate that cattle-to-cattle transmission rates are non-linearly density dependent. The basic reproductive ratio for our conventional within-herd model, estimated for scenarios with no statutory controls, increases from 1.5 (0.26-4.9; 95% CI) in a herd of 30 cattle up to 4.9 (0.99-14.0) in a herd of 400. Under this model we estimate that 50% (33-67) of recurrent breakdowns in Britain can be attributed to infection missed by tuberculin testing. However this figure falls to 24% (11-42) of recurrent breakdowns under our alternative model. Under both models the estimated extrinsic force of infection increases with the burden of missed infection. Hence, improved herd-level testing is unlikely to reduce recurrence unless this extrinsic infectious pressure is simultaneously addressed.

Project description:Bovine tuberculosis is endemic in cattle herds in Great Britain, with a substantial economic impact. A reservoir of Mycobacterium bovis within the Eurasian badger (Meles meles) population is thought to have hindered disease control. Cattle herd incidents, termed breakdowns, that are either 'prolonged' (lasting ? 240 days) or 'recurrent' (with another breakdown within a specified time period) may be important foci for onward spread of infection. They drain veterinary resources and can be demoralising for farmers. Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) data were re-analysed to examine the effects of two culling strategies on breakdown prolongation and recurrence, during and after culling, using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Separate effect estimates were obtained for the 'core' trial areas (where culling occurred) and the 'buffer' zones (up to 2 km outside of the core areas). For breakdowns that started during the culling period, 'reactive' (localised) culling was associated with marginally increased odds of prolongation, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.7 (95% credible interval [CI] 1.1-2.4) within the core areas. This effect was not present after the culling ceased. There was no notable effect of 'proactive' culling on prolongation. In contrast, reactive culling had no effect on breakdown recurrence, though there was evidence of a reduced risk of recurrence in proactive core areas during the culling period (ORs and 95% CIs: 0.82 (0.64-1.0) and 0.69 (0.54-0.86) for 24- and 36-month recurrence respectively). Again these effects were not present after the culling ceased. There seemed to be no effect of culling on breakdown prolongation or recurrence in the buffer zones. These results suggest that the RBCT badger culling strategies are unlikely to reduce either the prolongation or recurrence of breakdowns in the long term, and that reactive strategies (such as employed during the RBCT) are, if anything, likely to impact detrimentally on breakdown persistence.

Project description:Bovine ischaemic teat necrosis (ITN) is an emerging disease of unknown aetiology that affects the teats of dairy cattle. It causes economic and animal welfare issues with many animals being culled. No effective treatments or epidemiological data to inform control strategies are currently available. The aim of this observational study was to investigate farmer-reported experiences and identify potential farm-level risk factors. In January 2018, a questionnaire was sent to a random sample of 1,855 Great Britain (GB) dairy farmers. A usable response rate of 12.3% was obtained. Fifty-one per cent [95% confidence interval (CI): 44.4-57.8%] of farmers reported having experienced ITN on their farm between 1985 and 2018. Rising numbers of farms indicated that ITN is an emerging disease with 46.3% of farmers reporting the first case in the 3 years up to 2018. At the animal level, 47.3% (95% CI: 38.7-55.9%) of the cases occurred during the first lactation and 78.9% (95% CI: 75.2-82.6%) within the first 90 days in milk. Only 20.8% (95% CI: 15.9-26.4%) of the cases were reported to recover, whereas 22.8% (95% CI: 17.8-28.5%) of the cases required culling. The remaining cases experienced complications such as loss of a teat and/or mastitis. From these data, the cost of ITN, through production losses and expenditure, was estimated to be £1,121 per farm per year. The costs were estimated at £720, £860 and £2,133 for recovered, complicated and culled cases, respectively. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to explore the associations between the presence of ITN on farm and various risk factors. The presence of udder cleft dermatitis (UCD) (odds ratio 2.80; 95% CI: 1.54-5.07; p < 0.01) and chapped teats (odds ratio 6.07; 95% CI: 1.96-18.76; p < 0.01) in the milking herd was associated with the presence of ITN at the farm level. This is the first national questionnaire of ITN within GB and highlights the association of UCD and chapped teats with ITN at the farm level. While there are many limitations and potential bias around farmer questionnaires, these findings highlight several key areas for further disease investigation and possible intervention.

Dataset Information

Risk factors and variations in detection of new bovine tuberculosis breakdowns via slaughterhouse surveillance in Great Britain.

Publications

Risk factors and variations in detection of new bovine tuberculosis breakdowns via slaughterhouse surveillance in Great Britain.

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