Dataset Information

Pathway aggregation for survival prediction via multiple kernel learning.

ABSTRACT: Attempts to predict prognosis in cancer patients using high-dimensional genomic data such as gene expression in tumor tissue can be made difficult by the large number of features and the potential complexity of the relationship between features and the outcome. Integrating prior biological knowledge into risk prediction with such data by grouping genomic features into pathways and networks reduces the dimensionality of the problem and could improve prediction accuracy. Additionally, such knowledge-based models may be more biologically grounded and interpretable. Prediction could potentially be further improved by allowing for complex nonlinear pathway effects. The kernel machine framework has been proposed as an effective approach for modeling the nonlinear and interactive effects of genes in pathways for both censored and noncensored outcomes. When multiple pathways are under consideration, one may efficiently select informative pathways and aggregate their signals via multiple kernel learning (MKL), which has been proposed for prediction of noncensored outcomes. In this paper, we propose MKL methods for censored survival outcomes. We derive our approach for a general survival modeling framework with a convex objective function and illustrate its application under the Cox proportional hazards and semiparametric accelerated failure time models. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed MKL-based prediction methods work well in finite sample and can potentially outperform models constructed assuming linear effects or ignoring the group knowledge. The methods are illustrated with an application to 2 cancer data sets.

SUBMITTER: Sinnott JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5994931 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pathway aggregation for survival prediction via multiple kernel learning.

Sinnott Jennifer A JA Cai Tianxi T

Statistics in medicine 20180417 16

Attempts to predict prognosis in cancer patients using high-dimensional genomic data such as gene expression in tumor tissue can be made difficult by the large number of features and the potential complexity of the relationship between features and the outcome. Integrating prior biological knowledge into risk prediction with such data by grouping genomic features into pathways and networks reduces the dimensionality of the problem and could improve prediction accuracy. Additionally, such knowled ...[more]

PMID: 29664143

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Project description:BackgroundIdentification of molecular mechanisms that determine tumour progression in cancer patients is a prerequisite for developing new disease treatment guidelines. Even though the predictive performance of current machine learning models is promising, extracting significant and meaningful knowledge from the data simultaneously during the learning process is a difficult task considering the high-dimensional and highly correlated nature of genomic datasets. Thus, there is a need for models that not only predict tumour volume from gene expression data of patients but also use prior information coming from pathway/gene sets during the learning process, to distinguish molecular mechanisms which play crucial role in tumour progression and therefore, disease prognosis.ResultsIn this study, instead of initially choosing several pathways/gene sets from an available set and training a model on this previously chosen subset of genomic features, we built a novel machine learning algorithm, PrognosiT, that accomplishes both tasks together. We tested our algorithm on thyroid carcinoma patients using gene expression profiles and cancer-specific pathways/gene sets. Predictive performance of our novel multiple kernel learning algorithm (PrognosiT) was comparable or even better than random forest (RF) and support vector regression (SVR). It is also notable that, to predict tumour volume, PrognosiT used gene expression features less than one-tenth of what RF and SVR algorithms used.ConclusionsPrognosiT was able to obtain comparable or even better predictive performance than SVR and RF. Moreover, we demonstrated that during the learning process, our algorithm managed to extract relevant and meaningful pathway/gene sets information related to the studied cancer type, which provides insights about its progression and aggressiveness. We also compared gene expressions of the selected genes by our algorithm in tumour and normal tissues, and we then discussed up- and down-regulated genes selected by our algorithm while learning, which could be beneficial for determining new biomarkers.

Project description:Providing prognostic information at the time of cancer diagnosis has important implications for treatment and monitoring. Although cancer staging, histopathological assessment, molecular features, and clinical variables can provide useful prognostic insights, improving risk stratification remains an active research area. We developed a deep learning system (DLS) to predict disease specific survival across 10 cancer types from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We used a weakly-supervised approach without pixel-level annotations, and tested three different survival loss functions. The DLS was developed using 9,086 slides from 3,664 cases and evaluated using 3,009 slides from 1,216 cases. In multivariable Cox regression analysis of the combined cohort including all 10 cancers, the DLS was significantly associated with disease specific survival (hazard ratio of 1.58, 95% CI 1.28-1.70, p<0.0001) after adjusting for cancer type, stage, age, and sex. In a per-cancer adjusted subanalysis, the DLS remained a significant predictor of survival in 5 of 10 cancer types. Compared to a baseline model including stage, age, and sex, the c-index of the model demonstrated an absolute 3.7% improvement (95% CI 1.0-6.5) in the combined cohort. Additionally, our models stratified patients within individual cancer stages, particularly stage II (p = 0.025) and stage III (p<0.001). By developing and evaluating prognostic models across multiple cancer types, this work represents one of the most comprehensive studies exploring the direct prediction of clinical outcomes using deep learning and histopathology images. Our analysis demonstrates the potential for this approach to provide significant prognostic information in multiple cancer types, and even within specific pathologic stages. However, given the relatively small number of cases and observed clinical events for a deep learning task of this type, we observed wide confidence intervals for model performance, thus highlighting that future work will benefit from larger datasets assembled for the purposes for survival modeling.

Dataset Information

Pathway aggregation for survival prediction via multiple kernel learning.

Publications

Pathway aggregation for survival prediction via multiple kernel learning.

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