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A field-validated approach using surveillance and genotyping data to estimate tuberculosis attributable to recent transmission in the United States.

ABSTRACT: Tuberculosis genotyping data are frequently used to estimate the proportion of tuberculosis cases in a population that are attributable to recent transmission (RT). Multiple factors influence genotype-based estimates of RT and limit the comparison of estimates over time and across geographic units. Additionally, methods used for these estimates have not been validated against field-based epidemiologic assessments of RT. Here we describe a novel genotype-based approach to estimation of RT based on the identification of plausible-source cases, which facilitates systematic comparisons over time and across geographic areas. We compared this and other genotype-based RT estimation approaches with the gold standard of field-based assessment of RT based on epidemiologic investigation in Arkansas, Maryland, and Massachusetts during 1996-2000. We calculated the sensitivity and specificity of each approach for epidemiologic evidence of RT and calculated the accuracy of each approach across a range of hypothetical RT prevalence rates plausible for the United States. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of genotype-based RT estimates varied by approach. At an RT prevalence of 10%, accuracy ranged from 88.5% for state-based clustering to 94.4% with our novel approach. Our novel, field-validated approach allows for systematic assessments over time and across public health jurisdictions of varying geographic size, with an established level of accuracy.

SUBMITTER: France AM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5996379 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A field-validated approach using surveillance and genotyping data to estimate tuberculosis attributable to recent transmission in the United States.

France Anne Marie AM Grant Juliana J Kammerer J Steve JS Navin Thomas R TR

American journal of epidemiology 20151013 9

Tuberculosis genotyping data are frequently used to estimate the proportion of tuberculosis cases in a population that are attributable to recent transmission (RT). Multiple factors influence genotype-based estimates of RT and limit the comparison of estimates over time and across geographic units. Additionally, methods used for these estimates have not been validated against field-based epidemiologic assessments of RT. Here we describe a novel genotype-based approach to estimation of RT based o ...[more]

PMID: 26464470

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Project description:BackgroundThe present study aimed to characterize Mycobacterium tuberculosis population structure and to identify transmission chains and risk factors by prospective molecular typing in conjunction with conventional epidemiological investigations in the French overseas department of Guadeloupe.MethodsThe study included all the culture-positive TB cases (1 clinical isolate per patient; n?=?129) diagnosed between a seven year period (April 4th, 1999 to December 31st, 2005). Prospective molecular typing was performed using spoligotyping and VNTRs, and a subset of 44?M. tuberculosis isolates found to be clustered was retrospectively typed using 12-loci MIRUs. Data were compared using the SITVIT2 database, followed by analysis of risk factors in function of clustering of the isolates and available demographic and socioeconomic data.ResultsThe study sample was characterized by a majority of new cases (87.4%); a moderate proportion of drug-resistance (7.8%); a high level of immigration (51.2% foreign-born) originating from high TB/HIV incidence neighboring islands such as Haiti or Dominican Republic; lower socioeconomic conditions (70.7% of jobless, average income 824 EUR/month); and a significantly higher proportion of TB/HIV co-infected cases (38.2% vs. 8.5%; p?<?0.001), and extrapulmonary disease (18.2% vs. 4.8%; p?<?0.02) among migrants as compared to French patients. The study revealed an important delay in access to healthcare with a median delay of 74.5 days between the 1st symptoms and clinical suspicion of TB. Prospective molecular typing based on spoligotyping and 5-loci VNTRs showed that evolutionary recent Euro-American lineages predominated in Guadeloupe (91.5% of isolates). In conjunction with epidemiological data, it allowed to estimate a recent transmission rate of 18.6%, which was close to the rate of 16.7% estimated using retrospective 12-loci MIRU typing. Although a higher proportion of cases in older age-group were apparently linked to reactivation; univariate analysis of risk factors did not allow pinpointing specific risk factors for a patient to belong to a TB transmission group.ConclusionsOngoing TB transmission in the insular, low TB-incidence setting of Guadeloupe can be defined as follows: (i) a significant proportion of imported cases of the disease from neighboring islands; (ii) significantly higher TB/HIV coinfection among foreign-born cases; and, (iii) a higher proportion of cases affecting older age-group among French patients due to reactivation. This study emphasizes the need for universal typing using spoligotyping and 15-loci MIRUs in prospective studies.

Dataset Information

A field-validated approach using surveillance and genotyping data to estimate tuberculosis attributable to recent transmission in the United States.

Publications

A field-validated approach using surveillance and genotyping data to estimate tuberculosis attributable to recent transmission in the United States.

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