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Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil.

ABSTRACT: An increase in microcephaly, associated with an epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Brazil, prompted the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2016. While knowledge on biological and epidemiological aspects of ZIKV has advanced, demographic impacts remain poorly understood. This study uses time-series analysis to assess the impact of ZIKV on births. Data on births, fetal deaths, and hospitalizations due to abortion complications for Brazilian states, from 2010 to 2016, were used. Forecasts for September 2015 to December 2016 showed that 119,095 fewer births than expected were observed, particularly after April 2016 (a reduction significant at 0.05), demonstrating a link between publicity associated with the ZIKV epidemic and the decline in births. No significant changes were observed in fetal death rates. Although no significant increases in hospitalizations were forecasted, after the ZIKV outbreak hospitalizations happened earlier in the gestational period in most states. We argue that postponement of pregnancy and an increase in abortions may have contributed to the decline in births. Also, it is likely that an increase in safe abortions happened, albeit selective by socioeconomic status. Thus, the ZIKV epidemic resulted in a generation of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) babies that reflect and exacerbate regional and social inequalities. Since ZIKV transmission has declined, it is unlikely that reductions in births will continue. However, the possibility of a new epidemic is real. There is a need to address gaps in reproductive health and rights, and to understand CZS risk to better inform conception decisions.

SUBMITTER: Castro MC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6004455 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil.

Castro Marcia C MC Han Qiuyi C QC Carvalho Lucas R LR Victora Cesar G CG França Giovanny V A GVA

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20180529 24

An increase in microcephaly, associated with an epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Brazil, prompted the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2016. While knowledge on biological and epidemiological aspects of ZIKV has advanced, demographic impacts remain poorly understood. This study uses time-series analysis to assess the impact of ZIKV on births. Data on births, fetal deaths, and hospitalizations due to abortion complications for Braz ...[more]

PMID: 29844186

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Project description:Importance:Although birth defects in children with congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) are expected to result in significant intellectual disabilities, the extent of delay and profiles of development have yet to be fully described. Objectives:To describe the neurodevelopmental profiles of children with CZS and to test whether prenatal and postpartum characteristics were associated with the severity of developmental delays. Design, Setting, and Participants:This is a case series of the trajectories of developmental, behavioral, and medical needs of 121 young children with CZS who were assessed at a specialized rehabilitation center in Recife, Brazil, beginning in January 2018 as part of 5-year longitudinal study. Children were included if they had serologic confirmation of Zika virus and met clinical criteria accompanied by parental report of suspected exposure to Zika virus during pregnancy. Exposures:Prenatal Zika virus exposure. Main Outcomes and Measures:The Brazilian version of the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition, was administered by trained assessors as part of an initial comprehensive assessment battery. Caregiver interviews and medical record reviews were conducted to gather basic demographic information and medical comorbidities. Linear regression was used to identify potential factors for development. Results:The sample included 121 young children (mean [SD] age, 31.2 [1.9] months; 61 [50.4%] girls). At age approximately 2.5 years, nearly all children in this sample demonstrated profound developmental delays across all domains of functioning, with a mean (SD) developmental age equivalent to approximately 2 to 4 months (eg, cognitive domain, 2.24 [3.09] months; fine motor subscale, 2.15 [2.93] months; expressive language subscale, 2.30 [2.52] months). A relative strength was found in receptive language, with scores on this scale significantly higher than most other domains (eg, cognition: t?=?3.73; P?<?.001; fine motor: t?=?6.99; P?<?.001). Head circumference at birth was the single strongest factor associated with outcomes across all developmental domains (eg, cognitive: ??=?1.41; SE, 0.67; P?=?.04; fine motor: ??=?1.36; SE, 0.49; P?=?.007). Conclusions and Relevance:The findings of this study provide important information regarding the severity of disability that these children and their families will experience. The findings also establish an initial point from which to monitor developmental trajectories, medical comorbidities (eg, seizures), effectiveness of interventions, and cumulative consequences on families.

Project description:BackgroundEpidemiological data strongly suggest that microcephaly cases in Brazil are associated with the ongoing epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV). In order to further solidify the possible link, we investigated the infectivity of ZIKV using various neuroblastoma (NB) cell lines.MethodsSix undifferentiated, two terminally differentiated and two retinoic acid (RA) -induced, partially differentiated cell lines were exposed to ZIKV strain PRVABC59, which is genetically similar to the French Polynesia strain, with 97-100% genetic homology to the current ZIKV strain found in Brazil. All infections were confirmed by real-time PCR (RT-qPCR), immunofluorescence assay (IFA) probing with anti-flavivirus E antibody, and evaluation of cytopathic effects.FindingsZIKV infected all six undifferentiated NB cell lines. In five out of six NB cell lines, between 90 and 70% cells were positive by IFA whereas for one cell line, CCL-127, ~80% of cells were positive for ZIKV as determined by IFA but showed persistent infection. Two differentiated cell lines, JFEN and T-268, were highly resistant to ZIKV with <1% of the cells being susceptible, as determined by IFA and confirmed by qRT-PCR. Two retinoic acid (RA)-induced NB partially differentiated cell lines showed no difference in permissiveness as compared to their undifferentiated mother cell lines.InterpretationThese findings strengthen the reported association between high incidences of microcephaly and ZIKV infection in newborns in Brazil. Our results suggest that the undifferentiated neurons are highly permissive to ZIKV infection, as one would expect during the early stages of neurogenesis in fetal brains; whereas differentiated neurons, representative of adult brain neurons, are relatively resistant to the virus, which explains the rare occurrence of neurological complications in adults infected with ZIKV. Our studies confirm the neurotropism of the ZIKV strain closely related to the current epidemic in Latin America.

Project description:The Zika virus (ZIKV) has rapidly reached epidemic proportions, especially in northeastern Brazil, and has rapidly spread to other parts of the Americas. A recent increase in the prevalence of microcephaly in newborn infants and vision-threatening findings in these infants is likely associated with the rapid spread of ZIKV.To evaluate the ocular findings in infants with microcephaly associated with presumed intrauterine ZIKV infection in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.Case series at a tertiary hospital. Twenty-nine infants with microcephaly (defined by a cephalic circumference of ≤32 cm) with a presumed diagnosis of congenital ZIKV were recruited through an active search and referrals from other hospitals and health unities. The study was conducted between December 1 and December 21, 2015.All infants and mothers underwent systemic and ophthalmic examinations from December 1 through December 21, 2015, in the Roberto Santos General Hospital, Salvador, Brazil. Anterior segment and retinal, choroidal, and optic nerve abnormalities were documented using a wide-field digital imaging system. The differential diagnosis included toxoplasmosis, rubella, cytomegalovirus, herpes simplex virus, syphilis, and human immunodeficiency virus, which were ruled out through serologic and clinical examinations.Ocular abnormalities associated with ZIKV.Twenty-three of 29 mothers (79.3%) reported suspected ZIKV infection signs and symptoms during pregnancy, 18 in the first trimester, 4 in the second trimester, and 1 in the third trimester. Of the 29 infants (58 eyes) examined (18 [62.1%] female), ocular abnormalities were present in 17 eyes (29.3%) of 10 children (34.5%). Bilateral findings were found in 7 of 10 patients presenting with ocular lesions, the most common of which were focal pigment mottling of the retina and chorioretinal atrophy in 11 of the 17 eyes with abnormalities (64.7%), followed by optic nerve abnormalities in 8 eyes (47.1%), bilateral iris coloboma in 1 patient (2 eyes [11.8%]), and lens subluxation in 1 eye (5.9%).Congenital infection due to presumed ZIKV exposure is associated with vision-threatening findings, which include bilateral macular and perimacular lesions as well as optic nerve abnormalities in most cases.

Dataset Information

Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil.

Publications

Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil.

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