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Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil.

ABSTRACT: An increase in microcephaly, associated with an epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Brazil, prompted the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2016. While knowledge on biological and epidemiological aspects of ZIKV has advanced, demographic impacts remain poorly understood. This study uses time-series analysis to assess the impact of ZIKV on births. Data on births, fetal deaths, and hospitalizations due to abortion complications for Brazilian states, from 2010 to 2016, were used. Forecasts for September 2015 to December 2016 showed that 119,095 fewer births than expected were observed, particularly after April 2016 (a reduction significant at 0.05), demonstrating a link between publicity associated with the ZIKV epidemic and the decline in births. No significant changes were observed in fetal death rates. Although no significant increases in hospitalizations were forecasted, after the ZIKV outbreak hospitalizations happened earlier in the gestational period in most states. We argue that postponement of pregnancy and an increase in abortions may have contributed to the decline in births. Also, it is likely that an increase in safe abortions happened, albeit selective by socioeconomic status. Thus, the ZIKV epidemic resulted in a generation of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) babies that reflect and exacerbate regional and social inequalities. Since ZIKV transmission has declined, it is unlikely that reductions in births will continue. However, the possibility of a new epidemic is real. There is a need to address gaps in reproductive health and rights, and to understand CZS risk to better inform conception decisions.

SUBMITTER: Castro MC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6004455 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil.

Castro Marcia C MC Han Qiuyi C QC Carvalho Lucas R LR Victora Cesar G CG França Giovanny V A GVA

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20180529 24

An increase in microcephaly, associated with an epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Brazil, prompted the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2016. While knowledge on biological and epidemiological aspects of ZIKV has advanced, demographic impacts remain poorly understood. This study uses time-series analysis to assess the impact of ZIKV on births. Data on births, fetal deaths, and hospitalizations due to abortion complications for Braz ...[more]

PMID: 29844186

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Project description:Importance:Although birth defects in children with congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) are expected to result in significant intellectual disabilities, the extent of delay and profiles of development have yet to be fully described. Objectives:To describe the neurodevelopmental profiles of children with CZS and to test whether prenatal and postpartum characteristics were associated with the severity of developmental delays. Design, Setting, and Participants:This is a case series of the trajectories of developmental, behavioral, and medical needs of 121 young children with CZS who were assessed at a specialized rehabilitation center in Recife, Brazil, beginning in January 2018 as part of 5-year longitudinal study. Children were included if they had serologic confirmation of Zika virus and met clinical criteria accompanied by parental report of suspected exposure to Zika virus during pregnancy. Exposures:Prenatal Zika virus exposure. Main Outcomes and Measures:The Brazilian version of the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition, was administered by trained assessors as part of an initial comprehensive assessment battery. Caregiver interviews and medical record reviews were conducted to gather basic demographic information and medical comorbidities. Linear regression was used to identify potential factors for development. Results:The sample included 121 young children (mean [SD] age, 31.2 [1.9] months; 61 [50.4%] girls). At age approximately 2.5 years, nearly all children in this sample demonstrated profound developmental delays across all domains of functioning, with a mean (SD) developmental age equivalent to approximately 2 to 4 months (eg, cognitive domain, 2.24 [3.09] months; fine motor subscale, 2.15 [2.93] months; expressive language subscale, 2.30 [2.52] months). A relative strength was found in receptive language, with scores on this scale significantly higher than most other domains (eg, cognition: t?=?3.73; P?<?.001; fine motor: t?=?6.99; P?<?.001). Head circumference at birth was the single strongest factor associated with outcomes across all developmental domains (eg, cognitive: ??=?1.41; SE, 0.67; P?=?.04; fine motor: ??=?1.36; SE, 0.49; P?=?.007). Conclusions and Relevance:The findings of this study provide important information regarding the severity of disability that these children and their families will experience. The findings also establish an initial point from which to monitor developmental trajectories, medical comorbidities (eg, seizures), effectiveness of interventions, and cumulative consequences on families.

Project description:BackgroundChildren with in utero Zika virus (ZIKV) exposure without congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) are at risk for abnormal neurodevelopment. Preschool-age outcomes for children with antenatal ZIKV exposure have not yet been established.MethodsChildren with in utero ZIKV exposure and non-exposed controls had neurodevelopmental evaluations at age 3-5 years in Sabanalarga, Colombia. Cases did not have CZS and were previously evaluated prenatally through age 18 months. Controls were born before ZIKV arrival to Colombia. Neurodevelopmental assessments included Pediatric Evaluation of Disability Inventory (PEDI-CAT), Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF-P), Bracken School Readiness Assessment (BSRA), and Movement Assessment Battery for Children (MABC). Family demographics and child medical history were recorded.ResultsFifty-five ZIKV-exposed children were evaluated at mean age 3.6 years and 70 controls were evaluated at 5.2 years. Family demographics were similar between groups. BRIEF-P t-scores were higher for cases than controls in shift and flexibility domains. Cases had lower PEDI-CAT mobility t-scores compared to controls. There was no difference in MABC between groups. In 11% of cases and 1% of controls, parents reported child mood problems.ConclusionsChildren with in utero ZIKV exposure without CZS may demonstrate emerging differences in executive function, mood, and adaptive mobility that require continued evaluation.ImpactPreschool neurodevelopmental outcome in children with in utero Zika virus exposure is not yet known, since the Zika virus epidemic occurred in 2015-2017 and these children are only now entering school age. This study finds that Colombian children with in utero Zika virus exposure without congenital Zika syndrome are overall developing well but may have emerging differences in executive function, behavior and mood, and adaptive mobility compared to children without in utero Zika virus exposure. Children with in utero Zika virus exposure require continued multi-domain longitudinal neurodevelopmental evaluation through school age.

Dataset Information

Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil.

Publications

Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil.

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