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Impact on mortality of prompt admission to critical care for deteriorating ward patients: an instrumental variable analysis using critical care bed strain.

ABSTRACT: PURPOSE:To estimate the effect of prompt admission to critical care on mortality for deteriorating ward patients. METHODS:We performed a prospective cohort study of consecutive ward patients assessed for critical care. Prompt admissions (within 4 h of assessment) were compared to a 'watchful waiting' cohort. We used critical care strain (bed occupancy) as a natural randomisation event that would predict prompt transfer to critical care. Strain was classified as low, medium or high (2+, 1 or 0 empty beds). This instrumental variable (IV) analysis was repeated for the subgroup of referrals with a recommendation for critical care once assessed. Risk-adjusted 90-day survival models were also constructed. RESULTS:A total of 12,380 patients from 48 hospitals were available for analysis. There were 2411 (19%) prompt admissions (median delay 1 h, IQR 1-2) and 9969 (81%) controls; 1990 (20%) controls were admitted later (median delay 11 h, IQR 6-26). Prompt admissions were less frequent (p < 0.0001) as strain increased from low (22%), to medium (15%) to high (9%); the median delay to admission was 3, 4 and 5 h respectively. In the IV analysis, prompt admission reduced 90-day mortality by 7.4% (95% CI 1.7-18.5%, p = 0.117) overall, and 16.2% (95% CI 1.1-31.3%, p = 0.036) for those recommended for critical care. In the risk-adjust survival model, 90-day mortality was similar. CONCLUSION:After allowing for unobserved prognostic differences between the groups, we find that prompt admission to critical care leads to lower 90-day mortality for patients assessed and recommended to critical care.

SUBMITTER: Harris S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6006241 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact on mortality of prompt admission to critical care for deteriorating ward patients: an instrumental variable analysis using critical care bed strain.

Harris Steve S Singer Mervyn M Sanderson Colin C Grieve Richard R Harrison David D Rowan Kathryn K

Intensive care medicine 20180507 5

<h4>Purpose</h4>To estimate the effect of prompt admission to critical care on mortality for deteriorating ward patients.<h4>Methods</h4>We performed a prospective cohort study of consecutive ward patients assessed for critical care. Prompt admissions (within 4 h of assessment) were compared to a 'watchful waiting' cohort. We used critical care strain (bed occupancy) as a natural randomisation event that would predict prompt transfer to critical care. Strain was classified as low, medium or high ...[more]

PMID: 29736785

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Project description:ImportanceIt is unknown which deteriorating ward patients benefit from intensive care unit (ICU) transfer.ObjectivesTo use an instrumental variable (IV) method that assesses heterogeneity and to evaluate estimates of person-centered treatment effects of ICU transfer and 28-day hospital mortality by age and illness severity.Design, setting, and participantsAn analysis of a prospective cohort study from November 1, 2010, to December 31, 2011. The dates of this analysis were June 1, 2017, to June 30, 2018. The setting was a multicenter study of 49 UK National Health Service hospitals. Participants were 9192 deteriorating ward patients assessed for ICU transfer (4596 matched pairs). The study matched on baseline characteristics to strengthen the IV and to balance observed confounders between the comparison groups.ExposuresTransfer to the ICU or continued care on general wards.Main outcomes and measuresMortality at 28 days (primary outcome) and 90 days. To address unobserved confounding, ICU bed availability was the IV for whether or not a patient was transferred. The study used the IV approach to evaluate estimates of treatment effect of ICU transfer and mortality according to age and physiological severity alone and in combination.ResultsBoth comparison groups included 4596 patients. In the group assessed with "many" ICU beds available (median, 7), 52.8% were male, and the mean (SD) age was 65.2 (17.7) years; in the group assessed with "few" ICU beds available (median, 2), 53.3% were male, and the mean (SD) age was 65.0 (17.3) years. The overall 28-day mortality estimates were 23.2% (2090 predicted deaths) if all of the matched patients were transferred vs 28.1% (2534 predicted deaths) if none of the matched patients were transferred, an estimated risk difference of -4.9% (95% CI, -26.4% to 16.6%). The estimated effects of ICU transfer differed by age and by physiological severity according to the National Early Warning Score (NEWS): the absolute risk differences in 28-day mortality after ICU transfer ranged from 7.7% (95% CI, -5.5% to 21.0%) for ages 18 to 23 years to -5.0% (95% CI -26.5% to 16.6%) for age 78 to 83 years and ranged from 3.7% (95% CI, -12.1% to 19.5%) for NEWS of 0 to -25.4% (95% CI, -50.6% to -0.2%) for NEWS of 19. The absolute risk differences for elderly patients (≥75 years) were -11.6% (95% CI, -39.0% to 15.8%) for those with high NEWS (>6), -4.8% (95% CI, -30.5% to 20.9%) for those with moderate NEWS (5-6), and -1.0% (95% CI, -24.8% to 22.8%) for those with low NEWS (<5). The corresponding estimates for subgroups of younger patients (<75 years) were -8.4% (95% CI, -31.0% to 14.1%), -2.1% (95% CI, -21.1% to 16.9%), and 1.4% (95% CI, -14.5% to 17.4%).Conclusions and relevanceThis study using a this person-centered IV approach found that the benefits of ICU care may increase among patients at high levels of baseline physiological severity across different age groups, especially among elderly patients.

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Impact on mortality of prompt admission to critical care for deteriorating ward patients: an instrumental variable analysis using critical care bed strain.

Publications

Impact on mortality of prompt admission to critical care for deteriorating ward patients: an instrumental variable analysis using critical care bed strain.

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