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Derivation of data-driven triggers for palliative care consultation in critically ill patients.

ABSTRACT: PURPOSE:To examine the ability of existing triggers for intensive care unit (ICU) palliative care consultation to predict 6-month mortality, and derive new triggers for consultation based on risk factors for 6-month mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Retrospective cohort study of NY state residents who received intensive care, 2008-2013. We examined sensitivity and specificity of existing triggers for predicting 6-month mortality and used logistic regression to generate patient subgroups at high-risk for 6-month mortality as potential novel triggers for ICU palliative care consultation. RESULTS:Of 1,019,849 patients, 195,847 (19.2%) died within 6?months of admission. Existing triggers were specific but not sensitive for predicting 6-month mortality, (sensitivity 0.3%-11.1%, specificity 96.5-99.9% for individual triggers). Using logistic regression, patient subgroups with the highest predicted probability of 6-month mortality were older patients admitted with sepsis (age 70-79 probability 49.7%, [49.5-50.0]) or cancer (non-metastatic cancer, age 70-79 probability 51.5%, [51.1-51.9]; metastatic cancer, age 70-79 probability 60.3%, [59.9-60.6]). Sensitivity and specificity of novel triggers ranged from 0.05% to 9.2% and 98.6% to 99.9%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Existing triggers for palliative care consultation are specific, but insensitive for 6-month mortality. Using a data-driven approach to derive novel triggers may identify subgroups of patients at high-risk of 6-month mortality.

SUBMITTER: Hua MS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6014916 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Derivation of data-driven triggers for palliative care consultation in critically ill patients.

Hua May S MS Ma Xiaoyue X Li Guohua G Wunsch Hannah H

Journal of critical care 20180430

<h4>Purpose</h4>To examine the ability of existing triggers for intensive care unit (ICU) palliative care consultation to predict 6-month mortality, and derive new triggers for consultation based on risk factors for 6-month mortality.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>Retrospective cohort study of NY state residents who received intensive care, 2008-2013. We examined sensitivity and specificity of existing triggers for predicting 6-month mortality and used logistic regression to generate patient subg ...[more]

PMID: 29738925

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Project description:RationaleIn the intensive care unit (ICU), studies involving specialized palliative care services have shown decreases in the use of nonbeneficial life-sustaining therapies and ICU length of stay for patients. However, whether widespread availability of hospital-based palliative care is associated with less frequent use of high intensity care is unknown.ObjectivesTo determine whether availability of hospital-based palliative care is associated with decreased markers of treatment intensity for ICU patients.MethodsRetrospective cohort study of adult ICU patients in New York State hospitals, 2008-2014. Multilevel regression was used to assess the relationship between availability of hospital-based palliative care during the year of admission and hospital length of stay, use of mechanical ventilation, dialysis and artificial nutrition, placement of a tracheostomy or gastrostomy tube, days in ICU and discharge to hospice.ResultsOf 1,025,503 ICU patients in 151 hospitals, 814,794 (79.5%) received care in a hospital with a palliative care program. Hospital length of stay was similar for patients in hospitals with and without palliative care programs (6 d [interquartile range, 3-12] vs. 6 d [interquartile range, 3-11]; adjusted rate ratio, 1.04 [95% confidence interval 1.03-1.05]; P?<?0.001), as were other healthcare use outcomes. However, patients in hospitals with palliative care programs were 46% more likely to be discharged to hospice than those in hospitals without palliative care programs (1.7% vs. 1.4%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.46 [95% confidence interval 1.30-1.64]; P?<?0.001).ConclusionsThe availability of hospital-based palliative care was not associated with differences in in-hospital treatment intensity, but it was associated with significantly increased hospice use for ICU patients. Currently, the measurable benefit of palliative care programs for critically ill patients may be the increased use of hospice facilities, as opposed to decreased healthcare use during an ICU-associated hospitalization.

Project description:ImportancePalliative care consultations in intensive care units (ICUs) are increasingly prompted by clinical characteristics associated with mortality or resource utilization. However, it is not known whether these triggers reflect actual palliative care needs.ObjectiveTo compare unmet needs by clinical palliative care trigger status (present vs absent).Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective cohort study was conducted in 6 adult medical and surgical ICUs in academic and community hospitals in North Carolina between January 2019 and September 2020. Participants were consecutive patients receiving mechanical ventilation and their family members.ExposurePresence of any of 9 common clinical palliative care triggers.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was the Needs at the End-of-Life Screening Tool (NEST) score (range, 0-130, with higher scores reflecting greater need), which was completed after 3 days of ICU care. Trigger status performance in identifying serious need (NEST score ≥30) was assessed using sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and C statistics.ResultsSurveys were completed by 257 of 360 family members of patients (71.4% of the potentially eligible patient-family member dyads approached) with a median age of 54.0 years (IQR, 44-62 years); 197 family members (76.7%) were female, and 83 (32.3%) were Black. The median age of patients was 58.0 years (IQR, 46-68 years); 126 patients (49.0%) were female, and 88 (33.5%) were Black. There was no difference in median NEST score between participants with a trigger present (45%) and those with a trigger absent (55%) (21.0; IQR, 12.0-37.0 vs 22.5; IQR, 12.0-39.0; P = .52). Trigger presence was associated with poor sensitivity (45%; 95% CI, 34%-55%), specificity (55%; 95% CI, 48%-63%), positive likelihood ratio (1.0; 95% CI, 0.7-1.3), negative likelihood ratio (1.0; 95% CI, 0.8-1.2), and C statistic (0.50; 95% CI, 0.44-0.57).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study, clinical palliative care trigger status was not associated with palliative care needs and no better than chance at identifying the most serious needs, which raises questions about an increasingly common clinical practice. Focusing care delivery on directly measured needs may represent a more person-centered alternative.

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Derivation of data-driven triggers for palliative care consultation in critically ill patients.

Publications

Derivation of data-driven triggers for palliative care consultation in critically ill patients.

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