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Predicting mortality with the international classification of disease injury severity score using survival risk ratios derived from an Indian trauma population: A cohort study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Trauma is predicted to become the third leading cause of death in India by 2020, which indicate the need for urgent action. Trauma scores such as the international classification of diseases injury severity score (ICISS) have been used with great success in trauma research and in quality programmes to improve trauma care. To this date no valid trauma score has been developed for the Indian population. STUDY DESIGN:This retrospective cohort study used a dataset of 16047 trauma-patients from four public university hospitals in urban India, which was divided into derivation and validation subsets. All injuries in the dataset were assigned an international classification of disease (ICD) code. Survival Risk Ratios (SRRs), for mortality within 24 hours and 30 days were then calculated for each ICD-code and used to calculate the corresponding ICISS. Score performance was measured using discrimination by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCC) and calibration by calculating the calibration slope and intercept to plot a calibration curve. RESULTS:Predictions of 30-day mortality showed an AUROCC of 0.618, calibration slope of 0.269 and calibration intercept of 0.071. Estimates of 24-hour mortality consistently showed low AUROCCs and negative calibration slopes. CONCLUSIONS:We attempted to derive and validate a version of the ICISS using SRRs calculated from an Indian population. However, the developed ICISS-scores overestimate mortality and implementing these scores in clinical or policy contexts is not recommended. This study, as well as previous reports, suggest that other scoring systems might be better suited for India and other Low- and middle-income countries until more data are available.

SUBMITTER: Attergrim J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6021077 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting mortality with the international classification of disease injury severity score using survival risk ratios derived from an Indian trauma population: A cohort study.

Attergrim Jonatan J Sterner Mattias M Claeson Alice A Dharap Satish S Gupta Amit A Khajanchi Monty M Kumar Vineet V Gerdin Wärnberg Martin M

PloS one 20180627 6

<h4>Background</h4>Trauma is predicted to become the third leading cause of death in India by 2020, which indicate the need for urgent action. Trauma scores such as the international classification of diseases injury severity score (ICISS) have been used with great success in trauma research and in quality programmes to improve trauma care. To this date no valid trauma score has been developed for the Indian population.<h4>Study design</h4>This retrospective cohort study used a dataset of 16047 ...[more]

PMID: 29949624

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Children suffering nonaccidental trauma (NAT) are at high risk of death. It is unclear whether markers of injury severity for trauma center/system benchmarking such as Injury Severity Score (ISS) adequately characterize this. Our objective was to evaluate mortality prediction of ISS in children with NAT compared with accidental trauma (AT). METHODS:Pediatric patients younger than 16 years from the Pennsylvania state trauma registry 2000 to 2013 were included. Logistic regression predicted mortality from ISS for NAT and AT patients. Multilevel logistic regression determined the association between mortality and ISS while adjusting for age, vital signs, and injury pattern in NAT and AT patients. Similar models were performed for head Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS). Sensitivity analysis examined impaired functional independence at discharge as an alternate outcome. RESULTS:Fifty thousand five hundred seventy-nine patients were included with 1,866 (3.7%) NAT patients. Nonaccidental trauma patients had a similar rate of mortality at an ISS of 13 as an ISS of 25 for AT patients. Nonaccidental trauma patients also have higher mortality for a given head AIS level (range, 1.2-fold to 5.9-fold higher). Injury Severity Score was a significantly greater predictor of mortality in AT patients (adjusted odds rations [AOR], 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.15; p < 0.01) than NAT patients (AOR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.07-1.12; p < 0.01) per 1-point ISS increase, while head injury was a significantly greater predictor of mortality in NAT patients (AOR, 3.48; 95% CI, 1.54-8.32; p < 0.01) than AT patients (AOR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.95-1.45; p = 0.12). Nonaccidental trauma patients had a higher rate of impaired functional independence at any given ISS or head AIS level than AT patients. CONCLUSION:Nonaccidental trauma patients have higher mortality and impaired function at a given ISS/head AIS than AT patients. Conventional ISS thresholds may underestimate risk and head injury is a more important predictor of mortality in the NAT population. These findings should be considered in system performance improvement and benchmarking efforts that rely on ISS for injury characterization. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE:Epidemiologic study, level III.

Project description:Trauma patients with an ISS=75 have been deliberately excluded from some trauma studies because they were assumed to have "unsurvivable injuries." This study aimed to assess the true mortality among patients with an ISS=75, and to examine the characteristics and primary diagnoses of these patients. Retrospective review of the 2006-2010 U.S. Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) generated 2,815 patients with an ISS=75 for analysis, representing an estimated 13,569 patients in the country. Dispositions from the emergency department and hospital for these patients were tabulated by trauma center level. Survivors and non-survivors were compared using Pearson's chi-square test. Primary diagnosis codes of these patients were tabulated by mortality status. Overall, about 48.6% of patients with an ISS=75 were discharged alive, 25.8% died and 25.6% had unknown mortality status. The mortality risks of these patients did not vary significantly across different levels of trauma centers (15.6% vs. 13.0%, P = 0.16). Non-survivors were more likely than survivors to: be male (81.2% vs. 74.4%, P < 0.0001), be over 65 years (20.3% vs. 10.2%, P < 0.0001), be uninsured (33.8% vs. 19.1%), have at least one chronic condition (58.0% vs. 43.7%, P <0.0001), sustain life-threatening injuries (79.2% vs. 49.4%, P<0.0001), sustain penetrating injuries (42.0% vs. 25.9%, P<0.0001), and have injuries caused by motor vehicle crashes (32.9% vs. 21.1%, P<0.0001) or firearms (21.9% vs. 4.4%, P<0.0001). The most frequent diagnosis code was 862.8 (injury to multiple and unspecified intrathoracic organs, without mention of open wound into cavity). Our results revealed that at least half of patients with an ISS=75 survived, demonstrating that the rationale for excluding patients with an ISS=75 from analysis is not always justified. To avoid bias and inaccurate results, trauma researchers should examine the mortality status of patients with an ISS=75 before exclusion, and explicitly describe their method of generating ISS scores.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The Injury Severity Score (ISS) is the most commonly used injury scoring system in trauma research and benchmarking. An ISS greater than 15 conventionally defines severe injury; however, no studies evaluate whether ISS performs similarly between adults and children. Our objective was to evaluate ISS and Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) to predict mortality and define optimal thresholds of severe injury in pediatric trauma. METHODS:Patients from the Pennsylvania trauma registry 2000-2013 were included. Children were defined as younger than 16 years. Logistic regression predicted mortality from ISS for children and adults. The optimal ISS cutoff for mortality that maximized diagnostic characteristics was determined in children. Regression also evaluated the association between mortality and maximum AIS in each body region, controlling for age, mechanism, and nonaccidental trauma. Analysis was performed in single and multisystem injuries. Sensitivity analyses with alternative outcomes were performed. RESULTS:Included were 352,127 adults and 50,579 children. Children had similar predicted mortality at ISS of 25 as adults at ISS of 15 (5%). The optimal ISS cutoff in children was ISS greater than 25 and had a positive predictive value of 19% and negative predictive value of 99% compared to a positive predictive value of 7% and negative predictive value of 99% for ISS greater than 15 to predict mortality. In single-system-injured children, mortality was associated with head (odds ratio, 4.80; 95% confidence interval, 2.61-8.84; p < 0.01) and chest AIS (odds ratio, 3.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.81-6.97; p < 0.01), but not abdomen, face, neck, spine, or extremity AIS (p > 0.05). For multisystem injury, all body region AIS scores were associated with mortality except extremities. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated ISS greater than 23 to predict need for full trauma activation, and ISS greater than 26 to predict impaired functional independence were optimal thresholds. CONCLUSION:An ISS greater than 25 may be a more appropriate definition of severe injury in children. Pattern of injury is important, as only head and chest injury drive mortality in single-system-injured children. These findings should be considered in benchmarking and performance improvement efforts. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE:Epidemiologic study, level III.

Project description:BACKGROUND:An accurate injury severity measurement is essential for the evaluation of pediatric trauma care and outcome research. The traditional Injury Severity Score (ISS) does not consider the differential risks of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) from different body regions nor is it pediatric specific. The objective of this study was to develop a weighted ISS (wISS) system for pediatric blunt trauma patients with better predictive power than ISS. METHODS:Based on the association between mortality and AIS from each of the six ISS body regions, we generated different weights for the component AIS scores used in the calculation of ISS. The weights and wISS were generated using the National Trauma Data Bank. The Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) was used to validate our main results. Pediatric blunt trauma patients younger than 16 years were included, and mortality was the outcome. Discrimination (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, concordance) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic) were compared between the wISS and ISS. RESULTS:The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves from the wISS and ISS are 0.88 versus 0.86 in ISS of 1 to 74 and 0.77 versus 0.64 in ISS of 25 to 74 (p < 0.0001). The wISS showed higher specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and concordance when they were compared at similar levels of sensitivity. The wISS had better calibration (smaller Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic) than the ISS (11.6 vs. 19.7 for ISS = 1-74 and 10.9 vs. 12.6 for ISS = 25-74). The wISS showed even better discrimination with the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample. CONCLUSION:By weighting the AIS from different body regions, the wISS had significantly better predictive power for mortality than the ISS, especially in critically injured children. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE AND STUDY TYPE:Prognostic/epidemiological, level IV.

Dataset Information

Predicting mortality with the international classification of disease injury severity score using survival risk ratios derived from an Indian trauma population: A cohort study.

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Predicting mortality with the international classification of disease injury severity score using survival risk ratios derived from an Indian trauma population: A cohort study.

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