Dataset Information

National water, food, and trade modeling framework: The case of Egypt.

ABSTRACT: This paper introduces a modeling framework for the analysis of real and virtual water flows at national scale. The framework has two components: (1) a national water model that simulates agricultural, industrial and municipal water uses, and available water and land resources; and (2) an international virtual water trade model that captures national virtual water exports and imports related to trade in crops and animal products. This National Water, Food & Trade (NWFT) modeling framework is applied to Egypt, a water-poor country and the world's largest importer of wheat. Egypt's food and water gaps and the country's food (virtual water) imports are estimated over a baseline period (1986-2013) and projected up to 2050 based on four scenarios. Egypt's food and water gaps are growing rapidly as a result of steep population growth and limited water resources. The NWFT modeling framework shows the nexus of the population dynamics, water uses for different sectors, and their compounding effects on Egypt's food gap and water self-sufficiency. The sensitivity analysis reveals that for solving Egypt's water and food problem non-water-based solutions like educational, health, and awareness programs aimed at lowering population growth will be an essential addition to the traditional water resources development solution. Both the national and the global models project similar trends of Egypt's food gap. The NWFT modeling framework can be easily adapted to other nations and regions.

SUBMITTER: Abdelkader A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6021596 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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National water, food, and trade modeling framework: The case of Egypt.

Abdelkader A A Elshorbagy A A Tuninetti M M Laio F F Ridolfi L L Fahmy H H Hoekstra A Y AY

The Science of the total environment 20180526

This paper introduces a modeling framework for the analysis of real and virtual water flows at national scale. The framework has two components: (1) a national water model that simulates agricultural, industrial and municipal water uses, and available water and land resources; and (2) an international virtual water trade model that captures national virtual water exports and imports related to trade in crops and animal products. This National Water, Food & Trade (NWFT) modeling framework is appl ...[more]

PMID: 29800842

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Project description:BackgroundA large body of literature exists on trade liberalisation and the ways in which trade agreements can affect food systems. However, the systematic and objective monitoring of these and their impact on national food environments has been limited. Using a case study, this paper undertakes a systematic analysis of how Vanuatu's obligations under WTO agreements has impacted its food environment.ResultsData collection was guided by the INFORMAS trade monitoring framework's minimal approach and seven selected indicators outlined in three domains: trade in goods, trade in services and FDI, and policy space. Strong associations between trade liberalisation and imported foods, especially ultra-processed foods were evident in measured indicators as follows: (i) food trade with 32 WTO countries showing high levels of import volumes; (ii) a marked increase in 'less healthy' focus food imports namely fatty and other selected meat products, sugar, savoury snacks, ice-cream and edible ices and energy-dense beverages; (iii) actual and bound tariff rates impacting import trends of ice-cream and edible ices, bakery products and confectionary; and in other instances, a sharp increase in import of crisps, snacks and noodles despite tariff rates remaining unchanged from 2008 to 2019; (iv) policies regulating food marketing, composition, labelling and trade in the domestic space with relatively limited safeguard measures; (v) 49 foreign-owned food-related companies involved in food manufacturing and processing and the production of coffee, bakery products, confectionary, food preservatives, fish, local food products and meat, and the manufacturing, processing and packaging of palm oil, coconut oil, cooking oil, water, cordial juice, flavoured juices, soft drinks and alcoholic beverages. These were largely produced for local consumption; (vi) 32 domestic industries engaged in food and beverage production; and (vii) an assessment of WTO provisions relating to domestic policy space and governance showing that the current legal and regulatory environment for food in Vanuatu remains fragmented.ConclusionsThe analysis presented in this paper suggest that Vanuatu's commitments to WTO agreements do play an important role in shaping their food environment and the availability, nutritional quality, and accessibility of foods.

Project description:Within One Health, research translation is a dynamic process involving collaboration and communication between the human, animal, and environmental health sectors to create and apply research findings to address health threats at the human-animal-environment interface. Research translation is essential for the creation of evidence-based policies and programs for the prevention and control of infectious diseases and other health threats, and thus is an important component of a robust national capacity to effectively prevent, control, and mitigate biological incidents. However, there is a lack of conceptual guidance and training materials for research translation in a One Health context. To address this need, we developed a novel One Health Research Translation Framework that describes an iterative process for research and policy stakeholders to collaborate to design and implement research applications addressing One Health zoonotic disease challenges. In addition, we developed accompanying training materials to validate the Framework and facilitate capacity building for understanding and applying research translation concepts to zoonotic disease threats. The training materials consist of exercises to map One Health communication pathways and literature-based case studies on research translation to address zoonotic disease concerns. The Framework and training materials were piloted with Egyptian One Health stakeholders at a workshop in Cairo in 2018. The outcomes of the workshop validated the comprehensiveness and applicability of the Framework and training materials, as participants were able to demonstrate a firm understanding of research translation processes and successfully apply research translation and One Health concepts to real-world zoonotic disease scenarios. Overall, the Framework and accompanying training materials address an important gap in capacity building for One Health stakeholders and are valuable tools for strengthening research translation networks that promote development of innovative, evidence-based solutions to One Health zoonotic disease threats.

Dataset Information

National water, food, and trade modeling framework: The case of Egypt.

Publications

National water, food, and trade modeling framework: The case of Egypt.

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