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Reversed predator-prey cycles are driven by the amplitude of prey oscillations.

ABSTRACT: Ecoevolutionary feedbacks in predator-prey systems have been shown to qualitatively alter predator-prey dynamics. As a striking example, defense-offense coevolution can reverse predator-prey cycles, so predator peaks precede prey peaks rather than vice versa. However, this has only rarely been shown in either model studies or empirical systems. Here, we investigate whether this rarity is a fundamental feature of reversed cycles by exploring under which conditions they should be found. For this, we first identify potential conditions and parameter ranges most likely to result in reversed cycles by developing a new measure, the effective prey biomass, which combines prey biomass with prey and predator traits, and represents the prey biomass as perceived by the predator. We show that predator dynamics always follow the dynamics of the effective prey biomass with a classic ¼-phase lag. From this key insight, it follows that in reversed cycles (i.e., ¾-lag), the dynamics of the actual and the effective prey biomass must be in antiphase with each other, that is, the effective prey biomass must be highest when actual prey biomass is lowest, and vice versa. Based on this, we predict that reversed cycles should be found mainly when oscillations in actual prey biomass are small and thus have limited impact on the dynamics of the effective prey biomass, which are mainly driven by trait changes. We then confirm this prediction using numerical simulations of a coevolutionary predator-prey system, varying the amplitude of the oscillations in prey biomass: Reversed cycles are consistently associated with regions of parameter space leading to small-amplitude prey oscillations, offering a specific and highly testable prediction for conditions under which reversed cycles should occur in natural systems.

SUBMITTER: van Velzen E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6024131 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Reversed predator-prey cycles are driven by the amplitude of prey oscillations.

van Velzen Ellen E Gaedke Ursula U

Ecology and evolution 20180524 12

Ecoevolutionary feedbacks in predator-prey systems have been shown to qualitatively alter predator-prey dynamics. As a striking example, defense-offense coevolution can reverse predator-prey cycles, so predator peaks precede prey peaks rather than vice versa. However, this has only rarely been shown in either model studies or empirical systems. Here, we investigate whether this rarity is a fundamental feature of reversed cycles by exploring under which conditions they should be found. For this, ...[more]

PMID: 29988457

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Project description:Small mammal abundances are frequently limited by resource availability, but predators can exert strong lethal (mortality) and nonlethal (e.g., nest abandonment) limitations. Artificially increasing resource availability for uncommon small mammals provides a unique opportunity to examine predator-prey interactions. We used remote cameras to monitor 168 nest platforms placed in the live tree canopy (n = 23 young forest stands), primarily for arboreal red tree voles (tree voles; Arborimus longicaudus), over 3 years (n = 15,510 monitoring-weeks). Tree voles frequently built nests and were detected 37% of monitoring-weeks, whereas flying squirrels (Glaucomys oregonensis) built nests infrequently but were detected 45% of monitoring-weeks. Most nest predators were detected infrequently (<1% of monitoring-weeks) and were positively correlated with tree vole presence. Weasels (Mustela spp.) were highly effective predators of tree voles (n = 8 mortalities; 10% of detections) compared to owls (n = 1), flying squirrels (n = 2), and Steller's jays (n = 1). Tree vole activity decreased from 84.1 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 56.2, 111.9) detections/week 1-week prior to a weasel detection to 4.7 detections/week (95% CI: 1.7, 7.8) 1-week postdetection and remained low for at least 12 weeks. Interpretations of predator-prey interactions were highly sensitive to how we binned continuously collected data and model results from our finest bin width were biologically counter-intuitive. Average annual survival of female tree voles was consistent with a previous study (0.14; 95% CI: -0.04 [0.01], 0.32) and high compared to many terrestrial voles. The relative infrequency of weasel detections and inefficiency of other predators did not provide strong support for the hypothesis that predation per se limited populations. Rather, predation pressure, by reducing occupancy of already scarce nest sites through mortality and nest abandonment, may contribute to long-term local instability of tree vole populations in young forests. Additional monitoring would be needed to assess this hypothesis.

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Reversed predator-prey cycles are driven by the amplitude of prey oscillations.

Publications

Reversed predator-prey cycles are driven by the amplitude of prey oscillations.

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