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Hemoglobin A1c Level and Cardiovascular Disease Incidence in Persons With Type 1 Diabetes: An Application of Joint Modeling of Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data in the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study.

ABSTRACT: Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but hyperglycemia (measured by hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level), which characterizes T1D, has itself been an inconsistent predictor of CVD incidence. However, only baseline HbA1c or a summary measure (e.g., mean level over follow-up) is usually analyzed. Joint models allow simultaneous modeling of repeatedly measured longitudinal covariates, using random effects, and time-to-event data. We evaluated data from the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study, an ongoing prospective cohort study of childhood-onset T1D that has followed participants since 1986-1988 and has repeatedly found little association between baseline HbA1c or mean follow-up HbA1c and coronary artery disease incidence. Of 561 participants without CVD at baseline, 263 (46.9%) developed CVD over a period of 25 years (1986-2014). In joint models, each 1% unit increase in HbA1c trajectory was associated with a 1.26-fold increased risk of CVD (95% confidence interval: 1.07, 1.45), after adjustment for baseline levels of other CVD risk factors, and a 1.13-fold increased risk (95% confidence interval: 0.99, 1.32) after adjustment for updated mean levels of other CVD risk factors. These findings, which support the need for good glycemic control to prevent CVD in persons with T1D, underscore the importance of utilizing methods incorporating within-subject variation over time when analyzing and interpreting longitudinal cohort study data.

SUBMITTER: Miller RG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6030923 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceWith the increase in prediabetes among adolescents with overweight and obesity, identifying those at highest risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D) can support prevention strategies.ObjectiveTo assess T2D risk by hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels among adolescents with overweight and obesity.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study was conducted using data for January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019, from a large California health care system. The study population comprised adolescents aged 10 to 17 years who had a body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) at or above the 85th percentile, had HbA1c measured during 2010 to 2018, and did not have preexisting diabetes. Data abstraction and analyses were conducted from January 1, 2020, to November 16, 2023.ExposuresBaseline HbA1c, with covariates including BMI category (overweight: 85th to <95th percentile; moderate obesity: 100% to <120% of 95th percentile; or severe obesity: ≥120% of 95th percentile), age, sex, race and ethnicity, and Neighborhood Deprivation Index score.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was incident T2D during follow-up through 2019, including cumulative incidence and multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs using Cox proportional hazard regression analyses.ResultsThis study included 74 552 adolescents with a mean (SD) age of 13.4 (2.3) years. More than half (50.6%) were female; 26.9% of individuals had overweight, 42.3% had moderate obesity, and 30.8% had severe obesity. Individuals identified as Asian or Pacific Islander (17.6%), Black (11.1%), Hispanic (43.6%), White (21.6%), and other or unknown race or ethnicity (6.1%). During follow-up, 698 adolescents (0.9%) developed diabetes, and 626 (89.7%) had T2D; 72 individuals (10.3%) who had type 1, secondary, or other diabetes were censored. The overall T2D incidence was 2.1 (95% CI, 1.9-2.3) per 1000 person-years, with a 5-year cumulative incidence of 1.0% (95% CI, 0.9%-1.1%). Higher baseline HbA1c (from <5.5% to 5.5%-5.6%, 5.7%-5.8%, 5.9%-6.0%, 6.1%-6.2%, and 6.3-6.4%) was associated with higher 5-year cumulative T2D incidence (from 0.3% [95% CI, 0.2%-0.4%] to 0.5% [0.4%-0.7%], 1.1% [0.8%-1.3%], 3.8% [3.2%-4.7%], 11.0% [8.9%-13.7%], and 28.5% [21.9%-36.5%], respectively). In addition, higher baseline HbA1c was associated with greater T2D risk (reference [HbA1c <5.5%]: HR, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.3-2.2], 2.8 [2.1-3.6], 9.3 [7.2-12.1], 23.3 [17.4-31.3], and 71.9 [51.1-101.1], respectively). Higher BMI category, older age, female sex, and Asian or Pacific Islander race (HR, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.3-2.2]), but not Black race or Hispanic ethnicity (compared with White race), were also independent indicators of T2D. In stratified analyses, incremental risk associated with higher HbA1c was greater for Asian or Pacific Islander and White adolescents than for Black and Hispanic adolescents.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of adolescents with overweight and obesity, T2D risk increased substantially with baseline HbA1c above 6.0%. Risk varied by BMI, age, sex, and race and ethnicity. These findings suggest that diabetes surveillance in adolescents should be tailored to optimize identification among high-risk subgroups.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Clinical treatment goals of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) have changed since the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) demonstrated reduced long-term complications with intensive diabetes therapy. There have been few longitudinal studies to describe the clinical course of T1DM in the age of intensive therapy. Our objective was to describe the current-day clinical course of T1DM. METHODS:An analysis of the cumulative incidence of long-term complications was performed. The DCCT (1983-1993) assigned patients to conventional or intensive therapy. Since 1993, the DCCT has been observational, and intensive therapy was recommended for all patients. The Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) study is an observational study of patients with T1DM from Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. The study population comprised the DCCT T1DM cohort (N = 1441) and a subset of the EDC cohort (n = 161) selected to match DCCT entry criteria. In the DCCT, intensive therapy aimed for a near-normal glycemic level with 3 or more daily insulin injections or an insulin pump. Conventional therapy, with 1 to 2 daily insulin injections, was not designed to achieve specific glycemic targets. Main outcome measures included the incidences of proliferative retinopathy, nephropathy (albumin excretion rate >300 mg/24 h, creatinine level >or=2 mg/dL [to convert to micromoles per liter, multiply by 88.4], or renal replacement), and cardiovascular disease. RESULTS:After 30 years of diabetes, the cumulative incidences of proliferative retinopathy, nephropathy, and cardiovascular disease were 50%, 25%, and 14%, respectively, in the DCCT conventional treatment group, and 47%, 17%, and 14%, respectively, in the EDC cohort. The DCCT intensive therapy group had substantially lower cumulative incidences (21%, 9%, and 9%) and fewer than 1% became blind, required kidney replacement, or had an amputation because of diabetes during that time. CONCLUSION:The frequencies of serious complications in patients with T1DM, especially when treated intensively, are lower than that reported historically.

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Hemoglobin A1c Level and Cardiovascular Disease Incidence in Persons With Type 1 Diabetes: An Application of Joint Modeling of Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data in the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study.

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