Dataset Information

The emerging health impact of voluntary medical male circumcision in Zimbabwe: An evaluation using three epidemiological models.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Zimbabwe adopted voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as a priority HIV prevention strategy in 2007 and began implementation in 2009. We evaluated the costs and impact of this VMMC program to date and in future.

Methods

Three mathematical models describing Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic and program evolution were calibrated to household survey data on prevalence and risk behaviors, with circumcision coverage calibrated to program-reported VMMCs. We compared trends in new infections and costs to a counterfactual without VMMC. Input assumptions were agreed in workshops with national stakeholders in 2015 and 2017.

Results

The VMMC program averted 2,600-12,200 infections (among men and women combined) by the end of 2016. This impact will grow as circumcised men are protected lifelong, and onward dynamic transmission effects, which protect women via reduced incidence and prevalence in their male partners, increase over time. If other prevention interventions remain at 2016 coverages, the VMMCs already performed will avert 24,400-69,800 infections (2.3-5% of all new infections) through 2030. If coverage targets are achieved by 2021 and maintained, the program will avert 108,000-171,000 infections (10-13% of all new infections) by 2030, costing $2,100-3,250 per infection averted relative to no VMMC. Annual savings from averted treatment needs will outweigh VMMC maintenance costs once coverage targets are reached. If Zimbabwe also achieves ambitious UNAIDS targets for scaling up treatment and prevention efforts, VMMC will reduce the HIV incidence remaining at 2030 by one-third, critically contributing to the UNAIDS goal of 90% incidence reduction.

Conclusions

VMMC can substantially impact Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic in the coming years; this investment will save costs in the longer term.

SUBMITTER: McGillen JB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6051576 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The emerging health impact of voluntary medical male circumcision in Zimbabwe: An evaluation using three epidemiological models.

McGillen Jessica B JB Stover John J Klein Daniel J DJ Xaba Sinokuthemba S Ncube Getrude G Mhangara Mutsa M Chipendo Geraldine N GN Taramusi Isaac I Beacroft Leo L Hallett Timothy B TB Odawo Patrick P Manzou Rumbidzai R Korenromp Eline L EL

PloS one 20180718 7

<h4>Background</h4>Zimbabwe adopted voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as a priority HIV prevention strategy in 2007 and began implementation in 2009. We evaluated the costs and impact of this VMMC program to date and in future.<h4>Methods</h4>Three mathematical models describing Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic and program evolution were calibrated to household survey data on prevalence and risk behaviors, with circumcision coverage calibrated to program-reported VMMCs. We compared trends in new ...[more]

PMID: 30020940

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Project description:BackgroundTiming of routine follow-up visits after adult male circumcision (MC) differs by country and method. Most men do not attend all routine follow-up visits. This cross-sectional study aimed to further understanding of AE timing within a large-scale, routine, MC program to improve patient safety.MethodsFrom 2013-2017, ZAZIC consortium performed 192,575 MCs in Zimbabwe; the reported adverse event (AE) rate was 0.3%. Three scheduled, routine, follow-up visits intend to identify AEs. For surgical MC, visits were days 2, 7 and 42 post-procedure. For PrePex (device-based), visits were days 7, 14 and 49. Descriptive statistics explored characteristics of those patients with AEs. For each MC method, chi-square tests were used to evaluate associations between AE timing (days from MC to AE diagnosis) and factors of interest (age, AE type, severity).ResultsOf 421 AEs, 290 (69%) were surgical clients: 55 (19%) AEs were ≤2 days post-MC; 169 (58%) between 3-7 days; 47 (16%) between days 8-14; and 19 (7%) were ≥15 post-MC. Among surgical clients, bleeding was most common AE on/before Day 2 while infections predominated in other follow-up periods (p<0.001). Younger surgical MC patients with AEs experienced AEs later than older clients (p<0.001). Among 131 (31%) PrePex clients with AEs, 46 (35%) were ≤2 days post-MC; 59 (45%) between 3-7 days; 16 (12%) between days 8-14; and 10 (7%) ≥15 post-MC. For PrePex clients, device displacements were more likely to occur early while late AEs were most commonly infections (p<0.001).ConclusionAlmost 23% of surgical and 8% of PrePex AEs occurred after Visit 2. Later AEs were likely infections. Clinicians, clients, and caregivers should be more effectively counseled that complications may arise after initial visits. Messages emphasizing attention to wound care until complete healing could help ensure client safety. Younger boys, ages 10-14, and their caregivers would benefit from improved, targeted, post-operative counseling.

Project description:BackgroundSince 2013, the ZAZIC consortium supported the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care (MOHCC) to implement a high quality, integrated voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program in 13 districts. With the aim of significantly lowering global HIV rates, prevention programs like VMMC make every effort to achieve ambitious targets at an increasingly reduced cost. This has the potential to threaten VMMC program quality. Two measures of program quality are follow-up and adverse event (AE) rates. To inform further VMMC program improvement, ZAZIC conducted a quality assurance (QA) activity to assess if pressure to do more with less influenced program quality.MethodsKey informant interviews (KIIs) were conducted at 9 sites with 7 site-based VMMC program officers and 9 ZAZIC roving team members. Confidentiality was ensured to encourage candid conversation on adherence to VMMC standards, methods to increase productivity, challenges to target achievement, and suggestions for program modification. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analyzed using Atlas.ti 6.ResultsVMMC teams work long hours in diverse community settings to reach ambitious targets. Rotating, large teams of trained VMMC providers ensures meeting demand. Service providers prioritize VMMC safety procedures and implement additional QA measures to prevent AEs among all clients, especially minors. However, KIs noted three areas where pressure for increased numbers of clients diminished adherence to VMMC safety standards. For pre- and post-operative counselling, MC teams may combine individual and group sessions to reach more people, potentially reducing client understanding of critical wound care instructions. Second, key infection control practices may be compromised (handwashing, scrubbing techniques, and preoperative client preparation) to speed MC procedures. Lastly, pressure for client numbers may reduce prioritization of patient follow-up, while client-perceived stigma may reduce care-seeking. Although AEs appear well managed, delays in AE identification and lack of consistent AE reporting compromise program quality.ConclusionIn pursuit of ambitious targets, healthcare workers may compromise quality of MC services. Although risk to patients may appear minimal, careful consideration of the realities and risks of ambitious target setting by donors, ministries, and implementing partners could help to ensure that client safety and program quality is consistently prioritized over productivity.

Project description:BackgroundThe World Health Organization (WHO) and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) have set a Fast-Track goal to achieve 90% coverage of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) among boys and men aged 10-29 years in priority settings by 2021. We aimed to identify age-specific facilitators of VMMC uptake among adolescents.MethodsYounger (aged 10-14 years; n = 967) and older (aged 15-19 years; n = 559) male adolescents completed structured interviews about perceptions of and motivations for VMMC before receiving VMMC counseling at 14 service provision sites across South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. Adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) were estimated using multivariable modified Poisson regression models with generalized estimating equations and robust standard errors.ResultsThe majority of adolescents reported a strong desire for VMMC. Compared with older adolescents, younger adolescents were less likely to cite protection against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or other sexually transmitted infections (aPR, 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], .66-.91) and hygienic reasons (aPR, 0.55; 95% CI, .39-.77) as their motivation to undergo VMMC but were more likely to report being motivated by advice from others (aPR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.54-2.29). Although most adolescents believed that undergoing VMMC was a normative behavior, younger adolescents were less likely to perceive higher descriptive norms (aPR, 0.79; .71-.89), injunctive norms (aPR, 0.86; 95% CI, .73-1.00), or anticipated stigma for being uncircumcised (aPR, 0.79; 95% CI, .68-.90). Younger adolescents were also less likely than older adolescents to correctly cite that VMMC offers men and boys partial HIV protection (aPR, 0.73; 95% CI, .65-.82). Irrespective of age, adolescents' main concern about undergoing VMMC was pain (aPR, 0.95; 95% CI, .87-1.04). Among younger adolescents, fear of pain was negatively associated with desire for VMMC (aPR, 0.89; 95% CI, .83-.96).ConclusionsAge-specific strategies are important to consider to generate sustainable demand for VMMC. Programmatic efforts should consider building on the social norms surrounding VMMC and aim to alleviate fears about pain.

Project description:Voluntary medical male circumcision is a crucial HIV prevention program for men in sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya is one of the first countries to achieve high population coverage and seek to transition the program to a more sustainable structure designed to maintain coverage while making all aspects of service provision domestically owned and implemented. Using pre-defined metrics, we created and evaluated three models of circumcision service delivery (static, mobile and mixed) to identify which had potential for sustaining high circumcision coverage among 10-14-year-olds group, a historically high-demand and accessible age group, at the lowest possible cost. We implemented each model in two distinct geographic areas, one in Siaya and the other in Migori county, and assessed multiple aspects of each model's sustainability. These included numerical achievements against targets designed to reach 80% coverage over two years; quantitative expenditure outcomes including unit expenditure plus its primary drivers; and qualitative community perception of program quality and sustainability based on Likert scale. Outcome values at baseline were compared with those for year one of model implementation using bivariate linear regression, unpaired t-tests and Wilcoxon rank tests as appropriate. Across models, numerical target achievement ranged from 45-140%, with the mixed models performing best in both counties. Unit expenditures varied from approximately $57 in both countries at baseline to $44-$124 in year 1, with the lowest values in the mixed and static models. Mean key informant perception scores generally rose significantly from baseline to year 1, with a notable drop in the area of community engagement. Consistently low scores were in the aspects of domestic financing for service provision. Sustainability-focused circumcision service delivery models can successfully achieve target volumes at lower unit expenditures than existing models, but strategies for domestic financing remain a crucial challenge to address for long-term maintenance of the program.

Project description:BackgroundVoluntary medical male circumcision (MC) is safe and effective. Nevertheless, MC programs require multiple post-operative visits. In Zimbabwe, a randomized control trial (RCT) found that post-operative two-way texting (2wT) between clients and MC providers instead of in-person reviews reduced provider workload and safeguarded patient safety. A critical component of the RCT assessed usability and acceptability of 2wT among providers and clients. These findings inform scale-up of the 2wT approach to post-operative follow-up.MethodsThe RCT assigned 362 adult MC clients with cell phones into 2wT; these men responded to 13 automated daily texts supported by interactive texting or in-person follow-up, when needed. A subset of 100 texting clients filled a self-administered usability survey on day 14. 2wT acceptability was ascertained via 2wT response rates. Among 2wT providers, eight key informant interviews focused on 2wT acceptability and usability. Influences of wage and age on response rates and client-reported potential AEs were explored using linear and logistic regression models, respectively.ResultsClients felt confident, comfortable, satisfied, and well-supported with 2wT-based follow-up; few noted texting challenges or concerns about healing. Clients felt 2wT saved them time and money. Response rates (92%) suggested 2wT acceptability. Both clients and providers felt 2wT was highly usable. Providers noted 2wT saved them time, empowered clients to engage in their healing, and closed gaps in MC service quality. For scale, providers reinforced good post-operative counseling on AEs and texting instructions. Wage and age did not influence text response rates or potential AE texts.ConclusionResults strongly suggest that 2wT is highly usable and acceptable for providers and patients. Men with concerns solicited provider guidance and reassurance offered via text. Providers noted that men engaged proactively in their healing. 2wT between providers and patients should be expanded for MC and considered for other short-term care contexts. The trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, trial NCT03119337, and was activated on April 18, 2017. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03119337.

Dataset Information

The emerging health impact of voluntary medical male circumcision in Zimbabwe: An evaluation using three epidemiological models.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

The emerging health impact of voluntary medical male circumcision in Zimbabwe: An evaluation using three epidemiological models.

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