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Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: a scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape.

ABSTRACT: Like many urban areas around the world, Durham and Orange counties in North Carolina, USA are experiencing population growth and sprawl that is putting stress on the transportation system. Light rail and denser transit-oriented development are being considered as possible solutions. However, local agencies and stakeholders are concerned the light rail may worsen housing affordability and have questioned whether investment in both light rail and dense redevelopment are necessary to achieve community goals. We developed an integrated system dynamics model to quantitatively explore the outcomes of these land use and transportation options across multiple societal dimensions. The model incorporates feedbacks among the land, transportation, economic, equity, and energy sectors. This paper uses the results of four model scenarios, run between 2000 and 2040, to address two main questions: (1) what role does redevelopment play in capturing the socioeconomic benefits of transit infrastructure investment? And (2) how do redevelopment and light-rail transit interact to affect housing and transportation affordability? We find that transit investment and dense redevelopment combine synergistically to better achieve the goals of the light-rail line, including economic development, mobility, and compact growth. However, housing affordability does worsen in the combined scenario, as transportation-cost savings are not sufficient to offset the rise in housing costs. We emphasize that model users may input their own assumptions to explore the dynamics of alternative scenarios. We demonstrate how spatially-aggregated systems models can complement traditional land use and transportation models in the regional planning process.

SUBMITTER: Coxa L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6052455 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: a scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape.

Coxa L L Bassi A A Kolling J J Procter A A Flanders N N Tanners N N Araujo R R

Landscape and urban planning 20171101

Like many urban areas around the world, Durham and Orange counties in North Carolina, USA are experiencing population growth and sprawl that is putting stress on the transportation system. Light rail and denser transit-oriented development are being considered as possible solutions. However, local agencies and stakeholders are concerned the light rail may worsen housing affordability and have questioned whether investment in both light rail and dense redevelopment are necessary to achieve commun ...[more]

PMID: 30034064

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Project description:The rapid and large-scale urbanization of peri-urban areas poses major and complex challenges for wildlife conservation. We used population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate the influence of urban encroachment, fire, and fauna crossing structures, with and without accounting for inbreeding effects, on the metapopulation viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal, the southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus), in the rapidly expanding city of Perth, Australia. We surveyed two metapopulations over one and a half years, and parameterized the PVA models using largely field-collected data. The models revealed that spatial isolation imposed by housing and road encroachment has major impacts on I. obesulus. Although the species is known to persist in small metapopulations at moderate levels of habitat fragmentation, the models indicate that these populations become highly vulnerable to demographic decline, genetic deterioration, and local extinction under increasing habitat connectivity loss. Isolated metapopulations were also predicted to be highly sensitive to fire, with large-scale fires having greater negative impacts on population abundance than small-scale ones. To reduce the risk of decline and local extirpation of I. obesulus and other small- to medium-sized ground-dwelling mammals in urbanizing, fire prone landscapes, we recommend that remnant vegetation and vegetated, structurally-complex corridors between habitat patches be retained. Well-designed road underpasses can be effective to connect habitat patches and reduce the probability of inbreeding and genetic differentiation; however, adjustment of fire management practices to limit the size of unplanned fires and ensure the retention of long unburnt vegetation will also be required to ensure persistence. Our study supports the evidence that in rapidly urbanizing landscapes, a pro-active conservation approach is required that manages species at the metapopulation level and that prioritizes metapopulations and habitat with greater long-term probability of persistence and conservation capacity, respectively. This strategy may help us prevent future declines and local extirpations, and currently relatively common species from becoming rare.

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Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: a scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape.

Publications

Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: a scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape.

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