Dataset Information

Value of risk scores in the decision to palliate patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The aim of this study was to develop a 48-h mortality risk score, which included morphology data, for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm presenting to an emergency department, and to assess its predictive accuracy and clinical effectiveness in triaging patients to immediate aneurysm repair, transfer or palliative care.

Methods

Data from patients in the IMPROVE (Immediate Management of the Patient With Ruptured Aneurysm: Open Versus Endovascular Repair) randomized trial were used to develop the risk score. Variables considered included age, sex, haemodynamic markers and aortic morphology. Backwards selection was used to identify relevant predictors. Predictive performance was assessed using calibration plots and the C-statistic. Validation of the newly developed and other previously published scores was conducted in four external populations. The net benefit of treating patients based on a risk threshold compared with treating none was quantified.

Results

Data from 536 patients in the IMPROVE trial were included. The final variables retained were age, sex, haemoglobin level, serum creatinine level, systolic BP, aortic neck length and angle, and acute myocardial ischaemia. The discrimination of the score for 48-h mortality in the IMPROVE data was reasonable (C-statistic 0·710, 95 per cent c.i. 0·659 to 0·760), but varied in external populations (from 0·652 to 0·761). The new score outperformed other published risk scores in some, but not all, populations. An 8 (95 per cent c.i. 5 to 11) per cent improvement in the C-statistic was estimated compared with using age alone.

Conclusion

The assessed risk scores did not have sufficient accuracy to enable potentially life-saving decisions to be made regarding intervention. Focus should therefore shift to offering repair to more patients and reducing non-intervention rates, while respecting the wishes of the patient and family.

SUBMITTER: Sweeting MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6055637 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Value of risk scores in the decision to palliate patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

Sweeting M J MJ Ulug P P Roy J J Hultgren R R Indrakusuma R R Balm R R Thompson M M MM Hinchliffe R J RJ Thompson S G SG Powell J T JT

The British journal of surgery 20180406 9

<h4>Background</h4>The aim of this study was to develop a 48-h mortality risk score, which included morphology data, for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm presenting to an emergency department, and to assess its predictive accuracy and clinical effectiveness in triaging patients to immediate aneurysm repair, transfer or palliative care.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from patients in the IMPROVE (Immediate Management of the Patient With Ruptured Aneurysm: Open Versus Endovascular Repair) ran ...[more]

PMID: 30461007

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Project description:BackgroundMultiple organ failure (MOF) is associated with poor outcomes and increased mortality in sepsis and trauma. There are limited data regarding MOF in patients after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) repair. We aimed to identify the contemporary prevalence and characteristics of patients with rAAA with MOF.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed patients with rAAA who underwent repair (2010-2020) at our multihospital institution. Patients who died within the first 2 days after repair were excluded. MOF was quantified by modified (excluding hepatic system) Denver, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, and Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS) for postoperative days 3 to 5 to determine the prevalence of MOF. MOF was defined as a Denver score of >3, dysfunction in two or more organ systems by SOFA score, or a MODS score of >8. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank testing were used to evaluate differences in 30-day mortality between multiple organ failure and patients without MOF. Logistic regression was used to assess predictors of MOF.ResultsOf 370 patients with rAAA, 288 survived past two days (mean age, 73±10.1 years; 76.7% male; 44.1% open repair), and 143 had data for MOF calculation recorded. From postoperative days 3 to 5, 41 (14.24%) had MOF by Denver, 26 (9.03%) by SOFA, and 39 (13.54%) by MODS criteria. Among these scoring systems, pulmonary and neurological systems were impacted most commonly. Among patients with MOF, pulmonary derangement occurred in 65.9% (Denver), 57.7% (SOFA), and 56.4% (MODS). Similarly, neurological derangement occurred in 92.3% (SOFA) and 89.7% (MODS), but renal derangement occurred in 26.8% (Denver), 23.1% (SOFA), and 10.3% (MODS). MOF by all three scoring systems was associated with increased 30-day mortality (Denver: 11.3% vs 41.5% [P < .01]; DOFA: 12.6% vs 46.2% [P < .01]; MODS: 12.5% vs 35.9% [P < .01]), as was MOF by any criteria (10.8% vs 35.7 %; P < .01). Patients with MOF were more likely to have a higher body mass index (55.9±26.6 vs 49.0±15.0; P = .011) and to have had a preoperative stroke (17.9% vs 6.0%; P = .016). Patients with MOF were less likely to have undergone endovascular repair (30.4% vs 62.1%; P < .001). Endovascular repair was protective against MOF (any criteria) on multivariate analysis (odds ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.64; P = .019) after adjusting for age, gender, and presenting systolic blood pressure.ConclusionsMOF occurred in only 9% to 14% of patients after rAAA repair, but was associated with a three-fold increase in mortality. Endovascular repair was associated with a reduced MOF incidence.

Project description:Despite advances in operative repair, ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) remains associated with high mortality and morbidity rates, especially in elderly patients. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcomes of emergency endovascular aneurysm repair (eEVAR), conventional open repair (OPEN), and conservative treatment in elderly patients with rAAA.We conducted a retrospective study of all rAAA patients treated with OPEN or eEVAR between January 2005 and December 2011 in the vascular surgery department at Amphia Hospital, the Netherlands. The outcome in patients treated for rAAA by eEVAR or OPEN repair was investigated. Special attention was paid to patients who were admitted and did not receive operative intervention due to serious comorbidity, extremely advanced age, or poor physical condition. We calculated the 30-day rAAA-related mortality for all rAAA patients admitted to our hospital.Twelve patients did not receive operative emergency repair due to extreme fragility (mean age 87 years, median time to mortality 27 hours). Twenty-three patients had eEVAR and 82 had OPEN surgery. The 30-day mortality rate in operated patients was 30% (7/23) in the eEVAR group versus 26% (21/82) in the OPEN group (P=0.64). No difference in mortality was noted between eEVAR and OPEN over 5 years of follow-up. There were more cardiac adverse events in the OPEN group (n=25, 31%) than in the eEVAR group (n=2, 9%; P=0.035). Reintervention after discharge was more frequent in patients who received eEVAR (35%) than in patients who had OPEN (6%, P<0.001). Advancing age was associated with increasing mortality (hazard ratio 1.05 [95% confidence interval 1.01-1.09]) per year for patients who received operative repair, with a 67%, 76%, and 100% 5-year mortality rate in the 34 patients aged <70 years, 59 patients aged 70-79 years, and 12 octogenarians, respectively; 30-day rAAA-related mortality was also associated with increasing age (21%, 30%, and 61%, respectively; P=0.008).The 30-day and 5-year mortality in patients who survived rAAA was equal between the treatment options of eEVAR and OPEN. Particularly fragile and very elderly patients did not receive operative repair. The decision to intervene in rAAA should not be made on the basis of patient age alone, but also in relation to comorbidity and patient preference.

Dataset Information

Value of risk scores in the decision to palliate patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Value of risk scores in the decision to palliate patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

Similar Datasets

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