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Early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma in the modern era: simulation modelling to delineate long-term patient outcomes.

ABSTRACT: We developed a novel simulation model integrating multiple data sets to project long-term outcomes with contemporary therapy for early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (ESHL), namely combined modality therapy (CMT) versus chemotherapy alone (CA) via 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography response-adaption. The model incorporated 3-year progression-free survival (PFS), probability of cure with/without relapse, frequency of severe late effects (LEs), and 35-year probability of LEs. Furthermore, we generated estimates for quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and unadjusted survival (life years, LY) and used model projections to compare outcomes for CMTversusCA for two index patients. Patient 1: a 25-year-old male with favourable ESHL (stage IA); Patient 2: a 25-year-old female with unfavourable ESHL (stage IIB). Sensitivity analyses assessed the impact of alternative assumptions for LE probabilities. For Patient 1, CMT was superior to CA (CMT incremental gain = 0·11 QALYs, 0·21 LYs). For Patient 2, CA was superior to CMT (CA incremental gain = 0·37 QALYs, 0·92 LYs). For Patient 1, the advantage of CMT changed minimally when the proportion of severe LEs was reduced from 20% to 5% (0·15 QALYs, 0·43 LYs), whereas increasing the severity proportion for Patient 2's LEs from 20% to 80% enhanced the advantage of CA (1·1 QALYs, 6·5 LYs). Collectively, this detailed simulation model quantified the long-term impact that varied host factors and alternative contemporary treatments have in ESHL.

SUBMITTER: Parsons SK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6055753 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma in the modern era: simulation modelling to delineate long-term patient outcomes.

Parsons Susan K SK Kelly Michael J MJ Cohen Joshua T JT Castellino Sharon M SM Henderson Tara O TO Kelly Kara M KM Keller Frank G FG Henzer Tobi J TJ Kumar Anita J AJ Johnson Peter P Meyer Ralph M RM Radford John J Raemaekers John J Hodgson David C DC Evens Andrew M AM

British journal of haematology 20180429 2

We developed a novel simulation model integrating multiple data sets to project long-term outcomes with contemporary therapy for early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (ESHL), namely combined modality therapy (CMT) versus chemotherapy alone (CA) via <sup>18</sup> F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography response-adaption. The model incorporated 3-year progression-free survival (PFS), probability of cure with/without relapse, frequency of severe late effects (LEs), and 35-year probability of LEs. ...[more]

PMID: 29707774

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Project description:BackgroundFew studies have examined the impact of treatment-related morbidity on long-term, cause-specific mortality in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients.MethodsThis multicenter cohort included 4919 HL patients, treated before age 51 years between 1965 and 2000, with a median follow-up of 20.2 years. Standardized mortality ratios, absolute excess mortality (AEM) per 10 000 person-years, and cause-specific cumulative mortality by stage and primary treatment, accounting for competing risks, were calculated.ResultsHL patients experienced a 5.1-fold (AEM = 123 excess deaths per 10 000 person-years) higher risk of death due to causes other than HL. This risk remained increased in 40-year survivors (standardized mortality ratio = 5.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.2 to 6.5, AEM = 619). At age 54 years, HL survivors experienced similar cumulative mortality (20.0%) from causes other than HL to 71-year-old individuals from the general population. Whereas HL mortality statistically significantly decreased over the calendar period (P < .001), solid tumor mortality did not change in the most recent treatment era. Patients treated in 1989-2000 had lower 25-year cardiovascular disease mortality than patients treated in 1965-1976 (4.3% vs 5.7%; subdistribution hazard ratio = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.46 to 0.93). Infectious disease mortality was not only increased after splenectomy but also after spleen irradiation (hazard ratio = 2.81, 95% CI = 1.55 to 5.07). For stage I-II, primary treatment with chemotherapy (CT) alone was associated with statistically significantly higher HL mortality (P < .001 for CT vs radiotherapy [RT]; P = .04 for CT vs RT+CT) but lower 30-year mortality from causes other than HL (15.8%, 95% CI = 9.7% to 23.3%) compared with RT alone (36.9%, 95% CI = 34.0% to 39.8%, P = .001) and RT and CT combined (29.8%, 95% CI = 26.8% to 32.9%, P = .02).ConclusionsCompared with the general population, HL survivors have a substantially reduced life expectancy. Optimal selection of patients for primary CT is crucial, weighing risks of HL relapse and long-term toxicity.

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Early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma in the modern era: simulation modelling to delineate long-term patient outcomes.

Publications

Early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma in the modern era: simulation modelling to delineate long-term patient outcomes.

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