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Projections of primary hip arthroplasty in Germany until 2040.

ABSTRACT: Background and purpose - The number of hip replacements in Germany has increased considerably during the last 2 decades but lately levelled off with no significant increase in operation rates. We analyzed the future trend of hip arthroplasty and projected the number of primary hip replacements that will be performed in Germany until 2040. Patients and methods - We used prevalence data of hip arthroplasty patients from 2010 to 2016 from the nationwide inpatient statistics and population forecasts from the German Federal Bureau of Statistics up to the year 2040. We used Poisson regression to estimate the expected annual number of arthroplasty surgeries with calendar year and patient age as covariates to account for differences among age groups and changes over time. Results - The number of primary hip replacements performed in Germany in 2040 was estimated to grow by 27% to 288 x 103 (95% CI 250 x 103-332 x 103) from 2010. Projected counts were highest for patients aged 60 to 70 years. The estimated incidence rate was projected to 360 (95% CI 312-414) per 100,000 residents. However, incidence rates for individual age classes were found to be constant with a slight decrease over time for individual age classes. Interpretation - Our findings suggest a growth in the total hip arthroplasty count whereas incidence rate remained constant over age classes. We consider the future demographic change to an older population as well as the increasing life expectancy to be the main reasons for the increasing patient numbers rather than a general increase in the operation frequency.

SUBMITTER: Pilz V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6055773 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projections of primary hip arthroplasty in Germany until 2040.

Pilz Veronika V Hanstein Tim T Skripitz Ralf R

Acta orthopaedica 20180305 3

Background and purpose - The number of hip replacements in Germany has increased considerably during the last 2 decades but lately levelled off with no significant increase in operation rates. We analyzed the future trend of hip arthroplasty and projected the number of primary hip replacements that will be performed in Germany until 2040. Patients and methods - We used prevalence data of hip arthroplasty patients from 2010 to 2016 from the nationwide inpatient statistics and population forecasts ...[more]

PMID: 29504824

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Acute cerebrovascular event is one of the leading causes of death in Israel and is the primary cause of neurological disability in adults. Although some evidence indicates that the incidence rate of acute cerebrovascular events in developed countries is stable or has been decreasing over the past decades, the number of events is expected to increase in these countries due to projected changes in size and composition of the population. The purpose of this study was to provide a forecast of the number of acute cerebrovascular events in Israel for the coming decades. METHODS:We used data from the National Stroke Registry at the Israel Center for Disease Control and data from the long-term population forecasts of the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics. We generated forecasts of the annual number of acute cerebrovascular events based on the mean annual incidence rates during 2014-2016 within population subgroups defined by gender, age, and ethnicity, and on the projected population size of these subgroups for 2015-2040. The forecasts were generated for various assumptions as to trends in the incidence rate and for alternatives as to the projected population growth. RESULTS:Based on the intermediate population growth alternative, the annual number of acute cerebrovascular events is expected to increase from 18,400 to 38,500, 34,800 or 26,400 events, assuming constant annual incidence rates, decreasing annual incidence rates at a rate of 2% every 5 years, or decreasing annual incidence rates at a rate of 7.25% every 5 years, respectively. Whereas, presently, events affecting Arab patients account for 15% of acute cerebrovascular events and events affecting patients over 80 account for 33% of acute cerebrovascular events, by 2040 events affecting Arab patients will account for more than 21% of the events and events affecting patients over 80 will account for 42% of the events. CONCLUSIONS:In view of the expected increase in the number of acute cerebrovascular events and the changes in the demographic composition of adults suffering from such events, and in order to allow for optimal care and equity, it is imperative to evaluate the preparedness of care provision and the geographical deployment of treatment services in the short and long term.

Project description:ImportanceDespite many cases being preventable, cutaneous melanoma remains the most serious skin cancer worldwide. Understanding the scale and profile of the disease is vital to concentrate and reinforce global prevention efforts.ObjectiveTo examine global patterns of cutaneous melanoma in 2020 and to provide projected estimates of cases and deaths by 2040.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based study used the GLOBOCAN 2020 database for global epidemiological assessment of new cases and deaths due to invasive melanoma.Main outcomes and measuresAge-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100 000 person-years by country, world region, and 4-tier level of human development. Estimated numbers of cases and deaths were calculated for the year 2040.ResultsA worldwide total of 325 000 new melanoma cases (174 000 males, 151 000 females) and 57 000 deaths (32 000 males, 25 000 females) was estimated for 2020. Large geographic variations existed across countries and world regions, with the highest incidence rates among males (42 per 100 000 person-years) and females (31 per 100 000 person-years) observed in Australia/New Zealand, followed by Western Europe (19 per 100 000 person-years for males and females), North America (18 per 100 000 person-years for males, 14 per 100 000 person-years for females), and Northern Europe (17 per 100 000 person-years for males, 18 per 100 000 person-years for females). Melanoma continued to be rare in most African and Asian countries, with incidence rates commonly less than 1 per 100 000 person-years. Mortality rates peaked at 5 per 100 000 person-years in New Zealand, and geographic variations were less pronounced than for incidence. Melanoma was more frequent among males than females in most world regions. If 2020 rates continue, the burden from melanoma is estimated to increase to 510 000 new cases (a roughly 50% increase) and to 96 000 deaths (a 68% increase) by 2040.Conclusions and relevanceThis epidemiological assessment suggests that melanoma remains an important challenge to cancer control and public health globally, especially in fair-skinned populations of European descent.

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Projections of primary hip arthroplasty in Germany until 2040.

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Projections of primary hip arthroplasty in Germany until 2040.

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