Dataset Information

Seasonal variation in mortality secondary to acute myocardial infarction in England and Wales: a secondary data analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a leading cause of death globally. Increase in AMI mortality during winter has also been identified in existing literature. This has been associated with low outdoor and indoor temperatures and increasing age. The relationship between AMI and other factors such as gender and socioeconomic factors varies from study to study. Influenza epidemics have also been identified as a contributory factor.

Objective

This paper aims to illustrate the seasonal trend in mortality due to AMI in England and Wales with emphasis on excess winter mortality (EWM).

Methods

Monthly mortality rates per 10?000 population were calculated from data provided by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) for 1997-2005. To quantify the seasonal variation in winter, the EWM estimates (EWM, EWM ratio, Excess Winter Mortality Index) for each year were calculated. Negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the relationship between increasing age and EWM.

Results

The decline in mortality rate for AMI was 6.8% yearly between August 1997 and July 2005. Significant trend for reduction in AMI-associated mortality was observed over the period (p<0.001). This decline was not seen with EWM (p<0.001). 17% excess deaths were observed during winter. This amounted to about 20?000 deaths over the 8-year period. Increasing winter mortality was seen with increasing age for AMI.

Conclusion

EWM secondary to AMI does occur in England and Wales. Excess winter deaths due to AMI have remained high despite decline in overall mortality. More research is needed to identify the relationship of sex, temperature, acclimatisation, vitamin D and excess winter deaths due to AMI.

SUBMITTER: Ogbebor O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6059346 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Seasonal variation in mortality secondary to acute myocardial infarction in England and Wales: a secondary data analysis.

Ogbebor Osakpolor O Odugbemi Babatunde B Maheswaran Ravi R Patel Kavya K

BMJ open 20180719 7

<h4>Background</h4>Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a leading cause of death globally. Increase in AMI mortality during winter has also been identified in existing literature. This has been associated with low outdoor and indoor temperatures and increasing age. The relationship between AMI and other factors such as gender and socioeconomic factors varies from study to study. Influenza epidemics have also been identified as a contributory factor.<h4>Objective</h4>This paper aims to illustrate ...[more]

PMID: 30030309

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Project description:Background: There is limited knowledge of the scale and impact of multimorbidity for patients who have had an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Therefore, this study aimed to determine the extent to which multimorbidity is associated with long-term survival following AMI.Methods and findings: This national observational study included 693,388 patients (median age 70.7 years, 452,896 [65.5%] male) from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (England and Wales) who were admitted with AMI between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2013. There were 412,809 (59.5%) patients with multimorbidity at the time of admission with AMI, i.e., having at least 1 of the following long-term health conditions: diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma, heart failure, renal failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease, or hypertension. Those with heart failure, renal failure, or cerebrovascular disease had the worst outcomes (39.5 [95% CI 39.0-40.0], 38.2 [27.7-26.8], and 26.6 [25.2-26.4] deaths per 100 person-years, respectively). Latent class analysis revealed 3 multimorbidity phenotype clusters: (1) a high multimorbidity class, with concomitant heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, and hypertension, (2) a medium multimorbidity class, with peripheral vascular disease and hypertension, and (3) a low multimorbidity class. Patients in class 1 were less likely to receive pharmacological therapies compared with class 2 and 3 patients (including aspirin, 83.8% versus 87.3% and 87.2%, respectively; ?-blockers, 74.0% versus 80.9% and 81.4%; and statins, 80.6% versus 85.9% and 85.2%). Flexible parametric survival modelling indicated that patients in class 1 and class 2 had a 2.4-fold (95% CI 2.3-2.5) and 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.4-1.5) increased risk of death and a loss in life expectancy of 2.89 and 1.52 years, respectively, compared with those in class 3 over the 8.4-year follow-up period. The study was limited to all-cause mortality due to the lack of available cause-specific mortality data. However, we isolated the disease-specific association with mortality by providing the loss in life expectancy following AMI according to multimorbidity phenotype cluster compared with the general age-, sex-, and year-matched population.Conclusions: Multimorbidity among patients with AMI was common, and conferred an accumulative increased risk of death. Three multimorbidity phenotype clusters that were significantly associated with loss in life expectancy were identified and should be a concomitant treatment target to improve cardiovascular outcomes.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03037255.

Project description:ImportanceDuring the past decade, the incidence and mortality associated with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the United States have decreased substantially. However, it is unknown whether these improvements were consistent across communities of different economic status and geographic regions since efforts to improve cardiovascular disease prevention and management may have had variable impact.ObjectiveTo determine whether trends in US county-level, risk-standardized AMI hospitalization and mortality rates varied by county-based median income level.Design, setting, and participantsIn this observational study, county-level risk-standardized (age, sex, and race) hospitalization and 1-year mortality rates for AMI from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2013, were measured for Medicare beneficiaries 65 years or older. Data analysis was performed from June 2 through December 1, 2015. Counties were stratified by median income percentile using 1999 US Census Bureau data adjusted for inflation: low- (<25th), average- (25th-75th), or high- (>75th) income groups.Main outcomes and measuresThe effect of income on the slope of AMI hospitalizations and mortality, measured as differences in the rate of change in AMI hospitalizations and mortality by county income and by the 4 US geographic regions, and a possible lag effect among low-income counties.ResultsIn the 15-year study period, AMI risk-standardized hospitalization and mortality rates decreased significantly for all 3 county income groups. Mean hospitalization rates were significantly higher among low-income counties compared with high-income counties in 1999 (1353 vs 1123 per 100 000 person-years, respectively) and in 2013 (853 vs 648 per 100 000 person-years, respectively). One-year mortality rates after hospitalization for AMI were similar across county income groups, decreasing from 1999 (31.5%, 31.4%, and 31.1%, for high-, average-, and low-income counties, respectively) to 2013 (26.2%, 26.1%, and 25.4%, respectively). Income was associated with county-level, risk-standardized AMI hospitalization rates but not mortality rates. Increasing 1 interquartile range of median county consumer price index-adjusted income ($12 000) was associated with a decline in 46 and 37 hospitalizations per 100 000 person-years for 1999 and 2013, respectively; interaction between income and time was 0.56. The rate of decline in AMI hospitalizations was similar for all county income groups; however, low-income counties lagged behind high-income counties by 4.3 (95% CI, 3.1-5.9) years. There were no significant differences in trends across geographic regions.Conclusions and relevanceHospitalization and mortality rates of AMI declined among counties of all income levels, although hospitalization rates among low-income counties lag behind those of the higher income groups. These findings lend support for a more targeted, community-based approach to AMI prevention.

Project description:BackgroundPreclinical data suggest that an acute inflammatory response following myocardial infarction (MI) accelerates systemic atherosclerosis. Using combined positron emission and computed tomography, we investigated whether this phenomenon occurs in humans.Methods and resultsOverall, 40 patients with MI and 40 with stable angina underwent thoracic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose combined positron emission and computed tomography scan. Radiotracer uptake was measured in aortic atheroma and nonvascular tissue (paraspinal muscle). In 1003 patients enrolled in the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events, we assessed whether infarct size predicted early (≤30 days) and late (>30 days) recurrent coronary events. Compared with patients with stable angina, patients with MI had higher aortic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake (tissue-to-background ratio 2.15±0.30 versus 1.84±0.18, P<0.0001) and plasma C-reactive protein concentrations (6.50 [2.00 to 12.75] versus 2.00 [0.50 to 4.00] mg/dL, P=0.0005) despite having similar aortic (P=0.12) and less coronary (P=0.006) atherosclerotic burden and similar paraspinal muscular 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake (P=0.52). Patients with ST-segment elevation MI had larger infarcts (peak plasma troponin 32 300 [10 200 to >50 000] versus 3800 [1000 to 9200] ng/L, P<0.0001) and greater aortic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake (2.24±0.32 versus 2.02±0.21, P=0.03) than those with non-ST-segment elevation MI. Peak plasma troponin concentrations correlated with aortic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake (r=0.43, P=0.01) and, on multivariate analysis, independently predicted early (tertile 3 versus tertile 1: relative risk 4.40 [95% CI 1.90 to 10.19], P=0.001), but not late, recurrent MI.ConclusionsThe presence and extent of MI is associated with increased aortic atherosclerotic inflammation and early recurrent MI. This finding supports the hypothesis that acute MI exacerbates systemic atherosclerotic inflammation and remote plaque destabilization: MI begets MI.Clinical trial registrationURL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01749254.

Dataset Information

Seasonal variation in mortality secondary to acute myocardial infarction in England and Wales: a secondary data analysis.

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Seasonal variation in mortality secondary to acute myocardial infarction in England and Wales: a secondary data analysis.

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