Dataset Information

Balancing the risk of the evacuation and sheltering-in-place options: a survival study following Japan's 2011 Fukushima nuclear incident.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

The decision to evacuate or shelter-in-place is fundamental to emergency response, especially for a vulnerable population. While an elevated risk of mortality due to a hasty, unplanned evacuation has been well documented, there is little research on and knowledge about the health consequences of sheltering-in-place in disaster contexts. We compared hospital mortality in patients who sheltered-in-place (non-evacuees) after the incident with the baseline preincident mortality and articulated postincident circumstances of the hospital while sheltering-in-place.

Participants

We considered all 484 patients admitted to Takano Hospital (located 22?km South of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant) from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2016.

Methods

Significant differences in mortality rates between preincident baseline and three postincident groups (evacuees, non-evacuees (our major interest) and new admittees) were tested using the Bayesian survival analysis with Weibull multivariate regression and survival probability using the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. All the analyses were separately performed by the internal and psychiatry department.

Results

After adjusting for covariates, non-evacuees in the internal department had a significantly higher mortality risk with an HR of 1.57 (95% credible intervals 1.11 to 2.18) than the baseline preincident. Of them, most deaths occurred within the first 100 days of the incident. No significant increase in mortality risk was identified in evacuees and new admittees postincident in the department, which were adjusted for covariates. In contrast, for the psychiatry department, statistical difference in mortality risk was not identified in any groups.

Conclusions

The mortality risk of sheltering-in-place in a harsh environment might be comparable to those in an unplanned evacuation. If sheltering-in-place with sufficient resources is not guaranteed, evacuation could be a reasonable option, which might save more lives of vulnerable people if performed in a well-planned manner with satisfactory arrangements for appropriate transportation and places to safely evacuate.

SUBMITTER: Shimada Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6067355 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Balancing the risk of the evacuation and sheltering-in-place options: a survival study following Japan's 2011 Fukushima nuclear incident.

Shimada Yuki Y Nomura Shuhei S Ozaki Akihiko A Higuchi Asaka A Hori Arinobu A Sonoda Yuki Y Yamamoto Kana K Yoshida Izumi I Tsubokura Masaharu M

BMJ open 20180728 7

<h4>Objective</h4>The decision to evacuate or shelter-in-place is fundamental to emergency response, especially for a vulnerable population. While an elevated risk of mortality due to a hasty, unplanned evacuation has been well documented, there is little research on and knowledge about the health consequences of sheltering-in-place in disaster contexts. We compared hospital mortality in patients who sheltered-in-place (non-evacuees) after the incident with the baseline preincident mortality and ...[more]

PMID: 30056383

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Project description:IntroductionDemographic changes as a result of evacuation in the acute phase of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster are not well evaluated. We estimated post-disaster demographic transitions in Minamisoma City-located 14-38 km north of the nuclear plant-in the first month of the disaster; and identified demographic factors associated with the population remaining in the affected areas.Materials and methodsWe extracted data from the evacuation behavior survey administered to participants in the city between July 11, 2011 and April 30, 2013. Using mathematical models, we estimated the total population in the city after the disaster according to sex, age group, and administrative divisions of the city. To investigate factors associated with the population remaining in place after the disaster, a probit regression model was employed, taking into account sex, age, pre-disaster dwelling area, and household composition.ResultsThe overall population decline in Minamisoma City peaked 11 days after the disaster, when the population reached 7,107 people-11% of the pre-disaster level. The remaining population levels differed by area: 1.1% for mandatory evacuation zone, 12.5% for indoor sheltering zone, and 12.6% for other areas of the city. Based on multiple regression analyses, higher odds for remaining in place were observed among men (odds ratio 1.72 [95% confidence intervals 1.64-1.85]) than women; among people aged 40-64 years (1.40 [1.24-1.58]) than those aged 75 years or older; and among those living with the elderly, aged 70 years or older (1.18 [1.09-1.27]) or those living alone (1.71 [1.50-1.94]) than among those who were not.DiscussionDespite the evacuation order, some residents of mandatory evacuation zones remained in place, signaling the need for preparation to respond to their post-disaster needs. Indoor sheltering instructions may have accelerated voluntary evacuation, and this demonstrates the need for preventing potentially disorganized evacuation in future nuclear events.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster in 2011, residents of Kawauchi village who experienced evacuation had a high risk of suffering from diabetes and metabolic syndrome compared with non-evacuees. In addition to evacuation, lifestyle characteristics can be important factors influencing the development and prognosis of diabetes or glucose tolerance. The current study aimed to evaluate the effects of evacuation (i.e., lifestyle changes) on the incidence of diabetes among the non-diabetic residents of Kawauchi village. METHODS:Design is retrospective cohort study. Annual health examination data of residents of Kawauchi village and control area (Ono town) in Fukushima prefecture from 2008 to 2017, as available from the Japanese National Health Insurance system. Participants were classified into three groups: "Diabetes (DM)" (FBG ? 126?mg/dL or HbA1c ? 6.5% or hospital visit for DM or usage of diabetic medication), "Borderline DM" (126?mg/dL > FBG ? 110?mg/dL or 6.5% > HbA1c ? 6.0%, and without hospital visit, and without diabetic medication), and "Normoglycemic" (FBG < 110?mg/dL and HbA1c < 6.0%, and without hospital visit, and without diabetic medication). New onset of diabetes was evaluated and the events or missing data were occurred at health checkup. For this survival analysis, 339 residents in Kawauchi and 598 residents in Ono were included. Average follow-up periods after 2010 were 3.9?years in Kawauchi village and 3.6?years in Ono town. RESULTS:Compared with the normoglycemic group, incidence of DM was much greater in the borderline DM group, where DM occurred among 38.2% of the group in 2012 and increased to over 60% cumulatively through 2017 in Kawauchi village. DM had a prevalence of 16.3% in 2012, and below 30% in 2017 in borderline DM group of Ono town. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was applied to non-DM groups at both study sites separately to evaluate the effects of lifestyle changes at each site. While BMI, BMI change, and the lack of regular exercise (HR = 1.29, 1.72, and 5.04, respectively) showed significant associations with the onset of diabetes in Ono town, only BMI and late-night dinner (HR = 1.21 and 4.86, respectively) showed significant associations with diabetes onset in Kawauchi village. CONCLUSIONS:The current results confirmed that diabetes incidence was increased 6?years after the Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster in Kawauchi. We also found changes in lifestyle habits, suggesting that diabetes prevention with promotion of healthy lifestyle behaviors is an urgent priority.

Project description:BackgroundFollowing the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, the nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has continued to affect the mental health status of residents in the evacuation zone. To examine the mental health status of evacuee after the nuclear accident, we conducted the Mental Health and Lifestyle Survey as part of the ongoing Fukushima Health Management Survey.MethodsWe measured mental health status using the Kessler 6-item psychological distress scale (K6) in a total of 73,569 (response rate: 40.7%) evacuees aged 15 and over who lived in the evacuation zone in Fukushima Prefecture. We then dichotomized responders using a 12/13 cutoff on the K6, and compared the proportion of K6 scores ≥13 and ≤12 in each risk factor including demographic information, socioeconomic variables, and disaster-related variables. We also performed bivariate analyses between mental health status and possible risk factors using the chi-square test. Furthermore, we performed multivariate regression analysis using modified Poisson regression models.ResultsThe median K6 score was 5 (interquartile range: 1-10). The number of psychological distress was 8,717 (14.6%). We found that significant differences in the prevalence of psychological distress by almost all survey items, including disaster-related risk factors, most of which were also associated with increased Prevalence ratios (PRs). Additionally, we found that psychological distress in each evacuation zone was significantly positively associated with the radiation levels in their environment (r = 0.768, p = 0.002).ConclusionThe earthquake, tsunami and subsequent nuclear accident likely caused severe psychological distress among residents in the evacuation zone in Fukushima Prefecture. The close association between psychological distress and the radiation levels shows that the nuclear accident seriously influenced the mental health of the residents, which might be exacerbated by increased risk perception. To provide prompt and appropriate support, continued psychosocial intervention for evacuees is strongly recommended.

Dataset Information

Balancing the risk of the evacuation and sheltering-in-place options: a survival study following Japan's 2011 Fukushima nuclear incident.

Objective

Participants

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Balancing the risk of the evacuation and sheltering-in-place options: a survival study following Japan's 2011 Fukushima nuclear incident.

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