Dataset Information

Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.

Methods and findings

We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.

Conclusions

This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.

SUBMITTER: Guo Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6067704 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study.

Guo Yuming Y Gasparrini Antonio A Li Shanshan S Sera Francesco F Vicedo-Cabrera Ana Maria AM de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho Micheline M Saldiva Paulo Hilario Nascimento PHN Lavigne Eric E Tawatsupa Benjawan B Punnasiri Kornwipa K Overcenco Ala A Correa Patricia Matus PM Ortega Nicolas Valdes NV Kan Haidong H Osorio Samuel S Jaakkola Jouni J K JJK Ryti Niilo R I NRI Goodman Patrick G PG Zeka Ariana A Michelozzi Paola P Scortichini Matteo M Hashizume Masahiro M Honda Yasushi Y Seposo Xerxes X Kim Ho H Tobias Aurelio A Íñiguez Carmen C Forsberg Bertil B Åström Daniel Oudin DO Guo Yue Leon YL Chen Bing-Yu BY Zanobetti Antonella A Schwartz Joel J Dang Tran Ngoc TN Van Dung Do DD Bell Michelle L ML Armstrong Ben B Ebi Kristie L KL Tong Shilu S

PLoS medicine 20180731 7

<h4>Background</h4>Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities wi ...[more]

PMID: 30063714

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Project description:BackgroundVarious retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions.MethodsDTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985-2015) and future (2020-99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk.FindingsThe time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by -0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2-7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4-10·3% in 2090-99.InterpretationThis study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health.FundingKorea Ministry of Environment.

Project description:BACKGROUND:There is an established U-shaped association between daily temperature and mortality. Temperature changes projected through the end of century are expected to lead to higher rates of heat-related mortality but also lower rates of cold-related mortality, such that the net change in temperature-related mortality will depend on location. OBJECTIVES:We quantified the change in heat-, cold-, and temperature-related mortality rates through the end of the century across 10 large US metropolitan areas. METHODS:We applied location-specific projections of future temperature from over 40 downscaled climate models to exposure-response functions relating daily temperature and mortality in 10 US metropolitan areas to estimate the change in temperature-related mortality rates in 2045-2055 and 2085-2095 compared to 1992-2002, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We further calculated the total number of deaths attributable to temperature in 1997, 2050, and 2090 in each metropolitan area, either assuming constant population or accounting for projected population growth. RESULTS:In each of the 10 metropolitan areas, projected future temperatures were associated with lower rates of cold-related deaths and higher rates of heat-related deaths. Under the higher-emission RCP 8.5 scenario, 8 of the 10 metropolitan areas are projected to experience a net increase in annual temperature-related deaths per million people by 2086-2095, ranging from a net increase of 627 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 239, 1018) deaths per million in Los Angeles to a net decrease of 59 (95% eCI: -485, 314) deaths per million in Boston. Applying these projected temperature-related mortality rates to projected population size underscores the large public health burden of temperature. CONCLUSIONS:Increases in the heat-related death rate are projected to outweigh decreases in the cold-related death rate in 8 out of 10 cities studied under a high emissions scenario. Adhering to a lower greenhouse gas emissions scenario has the potential to substantially reduce future temperature-related mortality.

Dataset Information

Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study.

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