Dataset Information

Comparison of four models predicting the malignancy of pulmonary nodules: A single-center study of Korean adults.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Four commonly used clinical models for predicting the probability of malignancy in pulmonary nodules were compared. While three of the models (Mayo Clinic, Veterans Association [VA], and Brock University) are based on clinical and computed tomography (CT) characteristics, one model (Herder) additionally includes the 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake value among the positron emission tomography (PET) characteristics. This study aimed to compare the predictive power of these four models in the context of a population drawn from a single center in an endemic area for tuberculosis in Korea.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of 242 pathologically confirmed nodules (4-30 mm in diameter) in 242 patients from January 2015 to December 2015 was performed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess the predictive performance with respect to malignancy.

Results

Of 242 nodules, 187 (77.2%) were malignant and 55 (22.8%) were benign, with tuberculosis granuloma being the most common type of benign nodule (23/55). PET was performed for 227 nodules (93.8%). The Mayo, VA, and Brock models showed similar predictive performance for malignant nodules (AUC: 0.6145, 0.6042 and 0.6820, respectively). The performance of the Herder model (AUC: 0.5567) was not significantly different from that of the Mayo (vs. Herder, p = 0.576) or VA models (vs. Herder, p = 0.999), and there were no differences among the three models in determining the probability of malignancy of pulmonary nodules. However, compared with the Brock model, the Herder model showed a significantly lower ability to predict malignancy (adjusted p = 0.0132).

Conclusions

In our study, the Herder model including the 18FDG uptake value did not perform better than the other models in predicting malignant nodules, suggesting the limited utility of adding PET/CT data to models predicting malignancy in populations within endemic areas for benign inflammatory nodules, such as tuberculosis.

SUBMITTER: Yang B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6067755 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Comparison of four models predicting the malignancy of pulmonary nodules: A single-center study of Korean adults.

Yang Bumhee B Jhun Byung Woo BW Shin Sun Hye SH Jeong Byeong-Ho BH Um Sang-Won SW Zo Jae Il JI Lee Ho Yun HY Sohn Insoek I Kim Hojoong H Kwon O Jung OJ Lee Kyungjong K

PloS one 20180731 7

<h4>Objective</h4>Four commonly used clinical models for predicting the probability of malignancy in pulmonary nodules were compared. While three of the models (Mayo Clinic, Veterans Association [VA], and Brock University) are based on clinical and computed tomography (CT) characteristics, one model (Herder) additionally includes the 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake value among the positron emission tomography (PET) characteristics. This study aimed to compare the predictive power of these fo ...[more]

PMID: 30063725

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Project description:RATIONALE:Lung computed tomography (CT) Screening Reporting and Data System (lung-RADS) has standardized follow-up and management decisions in lung cancer screening. To date, little is known how lung-RADS classification compares with radiological semantic features in risk prediction and diagnostic discrimination. OBJECTIVES:To compare the performance of radiological semantic features and lung-RADS in predicting nodule malignancy in lung cancer screening. METHODS:We used data and low-dose CT (LDCT) images from the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST). The training cohort contained 60 patients with screen-detected incident lung cancers who had a positive baseline screen (T0) that was not diagnosed and then was diagnosed at second follow-up (T2), and 139 nodule-positive controls who had 3 consecutive positive screens (T0 to T2) that were not diagnosed as lung cancer. The testing cohort included 40 patients with incident lung cancers that were diagnosed at first follow-up (T1) and 40 nodule-positive controls. Twenty-four semantic features were scored on a point scale from the LDCT images. Multivariable linear predictor model was built on the semantic features and the performances were compared with lung-RADS in 3 screening rounds. We also combined non-size-based semantic features with lung-RADS to improve malignancy detection. RESULTS:At T0, the average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for border definition in risk prediction was 0.72. The average AUROC for contour at T1 in risk prediction and T2 in diagnostic discrimination was 0.82 and 0.88, respectively. By comparison, the average AUROC of lung-RADS at T0, T1 and T2 were 0.60, 0.76 and 0.87, respectively. The combined model of the semantic features and lung-RADS shows improvement with AUROCs of 0.74, 0.88 and 0.96 at T0, T1, and T2, respectively, achieved by adding border definition (at T0) or contour (at T1 and T2). CONCLUSION:We find semantic features defined by border definition and contour performed similar to lung-RADS at follow-up time point and outperformed lung-RADS at baseline. These semantics alongside of lung-RADS shows improved performance to detect malignancy.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Mathematical predictive model is an effective method for preliminarily identifying the malignant pulmonary nodules. As the epidemiological trend of lung cancer changes, the detection rate of ground-glass-opacity (GGO) like early stage lung cancer is increasing rapidly, timely and proper clinical management can effectively improve the patients' prognosis. Our study aims to establish a novel predictive model of malignancy for non-solid pulmonary nodules, which would provide an objective evidence for invasive procedure and avoid unnecessary operation and the consequences. METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed the basic demographics, serum tumor markers and imaging features of 362 cases of non-solid pulmonary nodule from January 2013 to April 2018. All nodules received biopsy or surgical resection, and got pathological diagnosis. Cases were randomly divided into two groups. The modeling group was used for univariate analysis and logistic regression to determine independent risk factors and establish the predictive model. Data of the validation group was used to validate the predictive value and make a comparison with other models. RESULTS:Of the 362 cases with non-solid pulmonary nodule, 313 (86.5%) cases were diagnosed as AAH/AIS, MIA or invasive adenocarcinoma, 49 cases were diagnosed as benign lesions. Age, serum tumor markers CEA and Cyfra21-1, consolidation tumor ratio value, lobulation and calcification were identified as independent risk factors. The AUC value of the ROC curve was 0.894, the predictive sensitivity and specificity were 87.6%, 69.7%, the positive and negative predictive value were 94.8%, 46.9%. The validated predictive value is significantly better than that of the VA, Brock and GMUFH models. CONCLUSIONS:Proved with high predictive sensitivity and positive predictive value, this novel model could help enable preliminarily screening of "high-risk" non-solid pulmonary nodules before biopsy or surgical excision, and minimize unnecessary invasive procedure. This model achieved preferable predictive value, might have great potential for clinical application.

Dataset Information

Comparison of four models predicting the malignancy of pulmonary nodules: A single-center study of Korean adults.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Comparison of four models predicting the malignancy of pulmonary nodules: A single-center study of Korean adults.

Similar Datasets

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