Dataset Information

Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models.

ABSTRACT: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease, prominent in China. China's HFMD data are sparse with a large number of observed zeros across locations and over time. However, no previous studies have considered such a zero-inflated problem on HFMD's spatiotemporal risk analysis and mapping, not to mention for the entire Mainland China at county level. Monthly county-level HFMD cases data combined with related climate and socioeconomic variables were collected. We developed four models, including spatiotemporal Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models under the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to explore disease spatiotemporal patterns. The results showed that the spatiotemporal ZINB model performed best. Both climate and socioeconomic variables were identified as significant risk factors for increasing HFMD incidence. The relative risk (RR) of HFMD at the local scale showed nonlinear temporal trends and was considerably spatially clustered in Mainland China. The first complete county-level spatiotemporal relative risk maps of HFMD were generated by this study. The new findings provide great potential for national county-level HFMD prevention and control, and the improved spatiotemporal zero-inflated model offers new insights for epidemic data with the zero-inflated problem in environmental epidemiology and public health.

SUBMITTER: Song C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6069258 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models.

Song Chao C He Yaqian Y Bo Yanchen Y Wang Jinfeng J Ren Zhoupeng Z Yang Huibin H

International journal of environmental research and public health 20180712 7

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease, prominent in China. China's HFMD data are sparse with a large number of observed zeros across locations and over time. However, no previous studies have considered such a zero-inflated problem on HFMD's spatiotemporal risk analysis and mapping, not to mention for the entire Mainland China at county level. Monthly county-level HFMD cases data combined with related climate and socioeconomic variables were collected. We develop ...[more]

PMID: 30002344

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Project description:BackgroundHand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the common intestinal infectious diseases worldwide and has caused huge economic and disease burdens in many countries. The average annual incidence rate of HFMD was 11.66% in Shaanxi during the time span from 2009 to 2018. There are distinct differences within Shaanxi, as it is a special region that crosses three temperature zones. Hence, in this study, a spatiotemporal analysis of Shaanxi was performed to reveal the characteristics of the distribution of HFMD and to explore the meteorological determinants of HFMD.MethodsThe county-level and municipal data from Shaanxi Province from 2009 to 2018 were applied to research the spatiotemporal characteristics of HFMD and its meteorological determinants. Time series and spatial autocorrelation analyses were applied to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of HFMD. This study used spatial econometric panel models to explore the relationship between HFMD and meteorological factors based on the data of 107 counties and 10 municipalities.ResultsThe incidence rate of HFMD displayed no variable trend throughout the whole research period. A high incidence rate of HFMD was observed from June to September, corresponding to a time when the climate is characterized by heavy rain, high temperature, and high humidity. The high-incidence areas were mainly located in the central region in Shaanxi, whereas the low-incidence spots were mainly found in Northern Shaanxi. Regarding the meteorological factors analysed in this study, in general, the incidence rate of HFMD in specific regions was positively associated with the rainfall, temperature and humidity.ConclusionThese results could be applied by the government and the general public to take effective measures to prevent disease. Region-targeted policies could be enacted and implemented in the future according to specific situations in different areas and the relevant meteorological determinants. Additionally, meteorological conditions normally extend to a wide-ranging region; thus, cooperation among surrounding regions is necessary.

Project description:BackgroundGlobally, child mortality and morbidity remain a serious health challenge and infectious diseases are the leading causes. The use of count models together with spatial analysis of the number of doses of childhood vaccines taken is limited in the literature. We used a Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson regression model with spatio-temporal components to assess the number of doses of childhood vaccines taken among children aged 12-23 months and their associated factors.MethodsData of 19,564 children from 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 population-based cross-sectional Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey were used. The childhood vaccines include one dose of Bacillus-Calmette-Guérin; three doses of Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus; three doses of Polio and one dose of Measles. Uptake of all nine vaccines was regarded as full vaccination. We examined the multilevel factors associated with the number of doses of childhood vaccines taken using descriptive, bivariable and multivariable Bayesian models. Analysis was conducted in Stata version 16 and R statistical packages, and visualization in ArcGIS.ResultsThe prevalence of full vaccination was 6.5% in 2003, 14.8% in 2008, 21.8% in 2013 and 23.3% in 2018. Full vaccination coverage ranged from 1.7% in Sokoto to 51.9% in Anambra. Factors associated with the number of doses of childhood vaccines taken include maternal age (adjusted Incidence "risk" Ratio (aIRR) = 1.05; 95% Credible Interval (CrI) = 1.03-1.07) for 25-34 years and (aIRR = 1.07; 95% CrI = 1.05-1.10) for 35-49 years and education: (aIRR = 1.11, 95% CrI = 1.09-1.14) for primary and (aIRR = 1.16; 95% CrI = 1.13-1.19) for secondary/tertiary education. Other significant factors are wealth status, antenatal care attendance, working status, use of skilled birth attendants, religion, mother's desire for the child, community poverty rate, community illiteracy, and community unemployment.ConclusionAlthough full vaccination has remained low, there have been improvements over the years with wide disparities across the states. Improving the uptake of vaccines by educating women on the benefits of hospital delivery and vaccines through radio jingles and posters should be embraced, and state-specific efforts should be made to address inequality in access to routine vaccination in Nigeria.

Project description:The transmission and prevalence of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) are affected by a variety of natural and socio-economic environmental factors. This study aims to quantitatively investigate the non-stationary and spatially varying associations between various environmental factors and HFMD risk. We collected HFMD surveillance cases and a series of relevant environmental data from 2013 to 2021 in Xi'an, Northwest China. By controlling the spatial and temporal mixture effects of HFMD, we constructed a Bayesian spatiotemporal mapping model and characterized the impacts of different driving factors into global linear, non-stationary and spatially varying effects. The results showed that the impact of meteorological conditions on HFMD risk varies in both type and magnitude above certain thresholds (temperature: 30 °C, precipitation: 70 mm, solar radiation: 13000 kJ/m2, pressure: 945 hPa, humidity: 69%). Air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2) showed an inverted U-shaped relationship with the risk of HFMD, while other air pollutants (O3, SO2) showed nonlinear fluctuations. Moreover, the driving effect of increasing temperature on HFMD was significant in the 3-year period, while the inhibitory effect of increasing precipitation appeared evident in the 5-year period. In addition, the proportion of urban/suburban/rural area had a strong influence on HFMD, indicating that the incidence of HFMD firstly increased and then decreased during the rapid urbanization process. The influence of population density on HFMD was not only limited by spatial location, but also varied between high and low intervals. Higher road density inhibited the risk of HFMD, but higher night light index promoted the occurrence of HFMD. Our findings further demonstrated that both ecological and socioeconomic environmental factors can pose multiple driving effects on increasing the spatiotemporal risk of HFMD, which is of great significance for effectively responding to the changes in HFMD epidemic outbreaks.

Dataset Information

Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models.

Publications

Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models.

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