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The inter-annual variability of heat-related mortality in nine European cities (1990-2010).

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The association between heat and daily mortality and its temporal variation are well known. However, few studies have analyzed the inter-annual variations in both the risk estimates and impacts of heat. The aim is to estimate inter-annual variations in the effect of heat for a fixed temperature range, on mortality in 9 European cities included in the PHASE (Public Health Adaptation Strategies to Extreme weather events) project for the period 1990-2010. The second aim is to evaluate overall summer effects and heat-attributable deaths for each year included in the study period, considering the entire air temperature range (both mild and extreme temperatures). METHODS:A city-specific daily time-series analysis was performed, using a generalized additive Poisson regression model, restricted to the warm season (April-September). To study the temporal variation for a fixed air temperature range, a Bayesian Change Point analysis was applied to the relative risks of mortality for a 2 °C increase over the 90th percentile of the city-specific distribution. The number of heat attributable deaths in each summer were also calculated for mild (reference to 95th percentile) and extreme heat (95th percentile to maximum value). RESULTS:A decline in the effects of heat over time was observed in Athens and Rome when considering a fixed interval, while an increase in effects was observed in Helsinki. The greatest impact of heat in terms of attributable deaths was observed in the Mediterranean cities (Athens, Barcelona and Rome) for extreme air temperatures. In the other cities the impact was mostly related to extreme years with 2003 as a record breaking year in Paris (+?1900 deaths) and London (+?1200 deaths). CONCLUSIONS:Monitoring the impact of heat over time is important to identify changes in population vulnerability and evaluate adaptation measures.

SUBMITTER: Scortichini M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6083580 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The inter-annual variability of heat-related mortality in nine European cities (1990-2010).

Scortichini Matteo M de'Donato Francesca F De Sario Manuela M Leone Michela M Åström Christofer C Ballester Ferran F Basagaña Xavier X Bobvos Janos J Gasparrini Antonio A Katsouyanni Klea K Lanki Timo T Menne Bettina B Pascal Mathilde M Michelozzi Paola P

Environmental health : a global access science source 20180808 1

<h4>Background</h4>The association between heat and daily mortality and its temporal variation are well known. However, few studies have analyzed the inter-annual variations in both the risk estimates and impacts of heat. The aim is to estimate inter-annual variations in the effect of heat for a fixed temperature range, on mortality in 9 European cities included in the PHASE (Public Health Adaptation Strategies to Extreme weather events) project for the period 1990-2010. The second aim is to eva ...[more]

PMID: 30089503

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Project description:Stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of raw pollen sampled from nine abundant tree species growing in natural habitats of central and northern Europe were investigated to understand the intra- and inter-specific variability of pollen-isotope values. All species yielded specific δ13Cpollen and δ18Opollen values and patterns, which can be ascribed to their physiology and habitat preferences. Broad-leaved trees flowering early in the year before leaf proliferation (Alnus glutinosa and Corylus avellana) exhibited on average 2.6‰ lower δ13Cpollen and 3.1‰ lower δ18Opollen values than broad-leaved and coniferous trees flowering during mid and late spring (Acer pseudoplatanus, Betula pendula, Carpinus betulus, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur). Mean species-specific δ13Cpollen values did not change markedly over time, whereas δ18Opollen values of two consecutive years were often statistically distinct. An intra-annual analysis of B. pendula and P. sylvestris pollen revealed increasing δ18Opollen values during the final weeks of pollen development. However, the δ13Cpollen values remained consistent throughout the pollen-maturation process. Detailed intra-individual analysis yielded circumferential and height-dependent variations within carbon and oxygen pollen-isotopes and the sampling position on a tree accounted for differences of up to 3.5‰ for δ13Cpollen and 2.1‰ for δ18Opollen. A comparison of isotope ranges from different geographic settings revealed gradients between maritime and continental as well as between high and low altitudinal study sites. The results of stepwise regression analysis demonstrated, that carbon and oxygen pollen-isotopes also reflect local non-climate environmental conditions. A detailed understanding of isotope patterns and ranges in modern pollen is necessary to enhance the accuracy of palaeoclimate investigations on δ13C and δ18O of fossil pollen. Furthermore, pollen-isotope values are species-specific and the analysis of species growing during different phenophases may be valuable for palaeoweather reconstructions of different seasons.

Dataset Information

The inter-annual variability of heat-related mortality in nine European cities (1990-2010).

Publications

The inter-annual variability of heat-related mortality in nine European cities (1990-2010).

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