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Multinucleotide mutations cause false inferences of lineage-specific positive selection.

ABSTRACT: Phylogenetic tests of adaptive evolution, such as the widely used branch-site test (BST), assume that nucleotide substitutions occur singly and independently. Recent research has shown that errors at adjacent sites often occur during DNA replication, and the resulting multinucleotide mutations (MNMs) are overwhelmingly likely to be non-synonymous. To evaluate whether the BST misinterprets sequence patterns produced by MNMs as false support for positive selection, we analysed two genome-scale datasets-one from mammals and one from flies. We found that codons with multiple differences account for virtually all the support for lineage-specific positive selection in the BST. Simulations under conditions derived from these alignments but without positive selection show that realistic rates of MNMs cause a strong and systematic bias towards false inferences of selection. This bias is sufficient under empirically derived conditions to produce false positive inferences as often as the BST infers positive selection from the empirical data. Although some genes with BST-positive results may have evolved adaptively, the test cannot distinguish sequence patterns produced by authentic positive selection from those caused by neutral fixation of MNMs. Many published inferences of adaptive evolution using this technique may therefore be artefacts of model violation caused by unincorporated neutral mutational processes. We introduce a model that incorporates MNMs and may help to ameliorate this bias.

SUBMITTER: Venkat A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6093625 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Multinucleotide mutations cause false inferences of lineage-specific positive selection.

Venkat Aarti A Hahn Matthew W MW Thornton Joseph W JW

Nature ecology & evolution 20180702 8

Phylogenetic tests of adaptive evolution, such as the widely used branch-site test (BST), assume that nucleotide substitutions occur singly and independently. Recent research has shown that errors at adjacent sites often occur during DNA replication, and the resulting multinucleotide mutations (MNMs) are overwhelmingly likely to be non-synonymous. To evaluate whether the BST misinterprets sequence patterns produced by MNMs as false support for positive selection, we analysed two genome-scale dat ...[more]

PMID: 29967485

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Project description:BackgroundAn excess of nonsynonymous substitutions, over neutrality, is considered evidence of positive Darwinian selection. Inference for proteins often relies on estimation of the nonsynonymous to synonymous ratio (ω = dN/dS) within a codon model. However, to ease computational difficulties, ω is typically estimated assuming an idealized substitution process where (i) all nonsynonymous substitutions have the same rate (regardless of impact on organism fitness) and (ii) instantaneous double and triple (DT) nucleotide mutations have zero probability (despite evidence that they can occur). It follows that estimates of ω represent an imperfect summary of the intensity of selection, and that tests based on the ω > 1 threshold could be negatively impacted.ResultsWe developed a general-purpose parametric (GPP) modelling framework for codons. This novel approach allows specification of all possible instantaneous codon substitutions, including multiple nonsynonymous rates (MNRs) and instantaneous DT nucleotide changes. Existing codon models are specified as special cases of the GPP model. We use GPP models to implement likelihood ratio tests for ω > 1 that accommodate MNRs and DT mutations. Through both simulation and real data analysis, we find that failure to model MNRs and DT mutations reduces power in some cases and inflates false positives in others. False positives under traditional M2a and M8 models were very sensitive to DT changes. This was exacerbated by the choice of frequency parameterization (GY vs. MG), with rates sometimes > 90% under MG. By including MNRs and DT mutations, accuracy and power was greatly improved under the GPP framework. However, we also find that over-parameterized models can perform less well, and this can contribute to degraded performance of LRTs.ConclusionsWe suggest GPP models should be used alongside traditional codon models. Further, all codon models should be deployed within an experimental design that includes (i) assessing robustness to model assumptions, and (ii) investigation of non-standard behaviour of MLEs. As the goal of every analysis is to avoid false conclusions, more work is needed on model selection methods that consider both the increase in fit engendered by a model parameter and the degree to which that parameter is affected by un-modelled evolutionary processes.

Project description:Inference and interpretation of evolutionary processes, in particular of the types and targets of natural selection affecting coding sequences, are critically influenced by the assumptions built into statistical models and tests. If certain aspects of the substitution process (even when they are not of direct interest) are presumed absent or are modeled with too crude of a simplification, estimates of key model parameters can become biased, often systematically, and lead to poor statistical performance. Previous work established that failing to accommodate multinucleotide (or multihit, MH) substitutions strongly biases dN/dS-based inference towards false-positive inferences of diversifying episodic selection, as does failing to model variation in the rate of synonymous substitution (SRV) among sites. Here, we develop an integrated analytical framework and software tools to simultaneously incorporate these sources of evolutionary complexity into selection analyses. We found that both MH and SRV are ubiquitous in empirical alignments, and incorporating them has a strong effect on whether or not positive selection is detected (1.4-fold reduction) and on the distributions of inferred evolutionary rates. With simulation studies, we show that this effect is not attributable to reduced statistical power caused by using a more complex model. After a detailed examination of 21 benchmark alignments and a new high-resolution analysis showing which parts of the alignment provide support for positive selection, we show that MH substitutions occurring along shorter branches in the tree explain a significant fraction of discrepant results in selection detection. Our results add to the growing body of literature which examines decades-old modeling assumptions (including MH) and finds them to be problematic for comparative genomic data analysis. Because multinucleotide substitutions have a significant impact on natural selection detection even at the level of an entire gene, we recommend that selection analyses of this type consider their inclusion as a matter of routine. To facilitate this procedure, we developed, implemented, and benchmarked a simple and well-performing model testing selection detection framework able to screen an alignment for positive selection with two biologically important confounding processes: site-to-site synonymous rate variation, and multinucleotide instantaneous substitutions.

Project description:BACKGROUND: The genus Listeria includes two closely related pathogenic and non-pathogenic species, L. monocytogenes and L. innocua. L. monocytogenes is an opportunistic human foodborne and animal pathogen that includes two common lineages. While lineage I is more commonly found among human listeriosis cases, lineage II appears to be overrepresented among isolates from foods and environmental sources. This study used the genome sequences for one L. innocua strain and four L. monocytogenes strains representing lineages I and II, to characterize the contributions of positive selection and recombination to the evolution of the L. innocua/L. monocytogenes core genome. RESULTS: Among the 2267 genes in the L. monocytogenes/L. innocua core genome, 1097 genes showed evidence for recombination and 36 genes showed evidence for positive selection. Positive selection was strongly associated with recombination. Specifically, 29 of the 36 genes under positive selection also showed evidence for recombination. Recombination was more common among isolates in lineage II than lineage I; this trend was confirmed by sequencing five genes in a larger isolate set. Positive selection was more abundant in the ancestral branch of lineage II (20 genes) as compared to the ancestral branch of lineage I (9 genes). Additional genes under positive selection were identified in the branch separating the two species; for this branch, genes in the role category "Cell wall and membrane biogenesis" were significantly more likely to have evidence for positive selection. Positive selection of three genes was confirmed in a larger isolate set, which also revealed occurrence of multiple premature stop codons in one positively selected gene involved in flagellar motility (flaR). CONCLUSION: While recombination and positive selection both contribute to evolution of L. monocytogenes, the relative contributions of these evolutionary forces seem to differ by L. monocytogenes lineages and appear to be more important in the evolution of lineage II, which seems to be found in a broader range of environments, as compared to the apparently more host adapted lineage I. Diversification of cell wall and membrane biogenesis and motility-related genes may play a particularly important role in the evolution of L. monocytogenes.

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Multinucleotide mutations cause false inferences of lineage-specific positive selection.

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Multinucleotide mutations cause false inferences of lineage-specific positive selection.

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