Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: White MT
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6097992 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundIn areas with both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria, interventions can reduce the burden of both species but the impact may vary due to their different biology. Knowing the expected relative impact on the two species over time for vector- and drug-based interventions, and the factors affecting this, could help plan and evaluate intervention strategies.MethodsFor three interventions (treated bed nets (ITN), mass drug administration (MDA) and indoor residual spraying (IRS)), we identified studies providing information on the proportion of clinical illness and patent infections attributed to P. vivax over time using a literature search. The change in the proportion of malaria attributed to P. vivax up to two years since implementation was estimated using logistic regression accounting for clustering with random effects. Potential factors (intervention type, coverage, relapse pattern, transmission intensity, seasonality, initial proportion of P. vivax and round of intervention) were assessed.ResultsIn total there were 55 studies found that led to 72 series of time-points for clinical case data and 69 series for patent infection data. The main reason of study exclusion was insufficient information on interventions. There was considerable variation in the proportion of malaria attributed to P. vivax over time by study and location for all of the interventions. Overall, there was an increase apart from MDA in the short-term. The potential factors could not be ruled in or out. Although not consistently significant, coverage, transmission intensity and relapse pattern are possible factors that explain some of the variation found.ConclusionWhile there are reports of an increase in the proportion of malaria due to P. vivax following interventions in the long-term, there was substantial variation for the shorter time-scales considered in this study (up to 24 months for IRS and ITN, and up to six months for MDA). The large variability points to the need for the monitoring of both species after an intervention. Studies should report intervention timing and characteristics to allow inclusion in systematic reviews.
| S-EPMC9242512 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThis paper investigates the impact of malaria preventive interventions in Ghana and the prospects of achieving programme goals using mathematical models based on regionally diverse climatic zones of the country.MethodsUsing data from the District Health Information Management System of the Ghana Health Service from 2008 to 2017, and historical intervention coverage levels, ordinary non-linear differential equations models were developed. These models incorporated transitions amongst various disease compartments for the three main ecological zones in Ghana. The Approximate Bayesian Computational sampling approach, with a distance based rejection criteria, was adopted for calibration. A leave-one-out approach was used to validate model parameters and the most sensitive parameters were evaluated using a multivariate regression analysis. The impact of insecticide-treated bed nets and their usage, and indoor residual spraying, as well as their protective efficacy on the incidence of malaria, was simulated at various levels of coverage and protective effectiveness in each ecological zone to investigate the prospects of achieving goals of the Ghana malaria control strategy for 2014-2020.ResultsIncreasing the coverage levels of both long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying activities, without a corresponding increase in their recommended utilization, does not impact highly on averting predicted incidence of malaria. Improving proper usage of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets could lead to substantial reductions in the predicted incidence of malaria. Similar results were obtained with indoor residual spraying across all ecological zones of Ghana.ConclusionsProjected goals set in the national strategic plan for malaria control 2014-2020, as well as World Health Organization targets for malaria pre-elimination by 2030, are only likely to be achieved if a substantial improvement in treated bed net usage is achieved, coupled with targeted deployment of indoor residual spraying with high community acceptability and efficacy.
| S-EPMC7684904 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIdentifying areas that support high malaria risks and where populations lack access to health care is central to reducing the burden in Afghanistan. This study investigated the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum using routine data to help focus malaria interventions.MethodsTo estimate incidence, the study modelled utilisation of the public health sector using fever treatment data from the 2012 national Malaria Indicator Survey. A probabilistic measure of attendance was applied to population density metrics to define the proportion of the population within catchment of a public health facility. Malaria data were used in a Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional-autoregressive model with ecological or environmental covariates, to examine the spatial and temporal variation of incidence.FindingsFrom the analysis of healthcare utilisation, over 80% of the population was within 2 hours' travel of the nearest public health facility, while 64.4% were within 30 minutes' travel. The mean incidence of P. vivax in 2009 was 5.4 (95% Crl 3.2-9.2) cases per 1000 population compared to 1.2 (95% Crl 0.4-2.9) cases per 1000 population for P. falciparum. P. vivax peaked in August while P. falciparum peaked in November. 32% of the estimated 30.5 million people lived in regions where annual incidence was at least 1 case per 1,000 population of P. vivax; 23.7% of the population lived in areas where annual P. falciparum case incidence was at least 1 per 1000.ConclusionThis study showed how routine data can be combined with household survey data to model malaria incidence. The incidence of both P. vivax and P. falciparum in Afghanistan remain low but the co-distribution of both parasites and the lag in their peak season provides challenges to malaria control in Afghanistan. Future improved case definition to determine levels of imported risks may be useful for the elimination ambitions in Afghanistan.
| S-EPMC4102516 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDespite recent intensification of control measures, Plasmodium vivax poses a major challenge for malaria elimination efforts. Liver-stage hypnozoite parasites that cause relapsing infections can be cleared with primaquine; however, poor treatment adherence undermines drug effectiveness. Tafenoquine, a new single-dose treatment, offers an alternative option for preventing relapses and reducing transmission. In 2018, over 237,000 cases of malaria were reported to the Brazilian health system, of which 91.5% were due to P. vivax.Methods and findingsWe evaluated the impact of introducing tafenoquine into case management practices on population-level transmission dynamics using a mathematical model of P. vivax transmission. The model was calibrated to reflect the transmission dynamics of P. vivax endemic settings in Brazil in 2018, informed by nationwide malaria case reporting data. Parameters for treatment pathways with chloroquine, primaquine, and tafenoquine with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) testing were informed by clinical trial data and the literature. We assumed 71.3% efficacy for primaquine and tafenoquine, a 66.7% adherence rate to the 7-day primaquine regimen, a mean 5.5% G6PDd prevalence, and 8.1% low metaboliser prevalence. The introduction of tafenoquine is predicted to improve effective hypnozoite clearance among P. vivax cases and reduce population-level transmission over time, with heterogeneous levels of impact across different transmission settings. According to the model, while achieving elimination in only few settings in Brazil, tafenoquine rollout in 2021 is estimated to improve the mean effective radical cure rate from 42% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 41%-44%) to 62% (95% UI 54%-68%) among clinical cases, leading to a predicted 38% (95% UI 7%-99%) reduction in transmission and over 214,000 cumulative averted cases between 2021 and 2025. Higher impact is predicted in settings with low transmission, low pre-existing primaquine adherence, and a high proportion of cases in working-aged males. High-transmission settings with a high proportion of cases in children would benefit from a safe high-efficacy tafenoquine dose for children. Our methodological limitations include not accounting for the role of imported cases from outside the transmission setting, relying on reported clinical cases as a measurement of community-level transmission, and implementing treatment efficacy as a binary condition.ConclusionsIn our modelling study, we predicted that, provided there is concurrent rollout of G6PDd diagnostics, tafenoquine has the potential to reduce P. vivax transmission by improving effective radical cure through increased adherence and increased protection from new infections. While tafenoquine alone may not be sufficient for P. vivax elimination, its introduction will improve case management, prevent a substantial number of cases, and bring countries closer to achieving malaria elimination goals.
| S-EPMC8064585 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionPlasmodium knowlesi is now recognised as a leading cause of malaria in Malaysia. As humans come into increasing contact with the reservoir host (long-tailed macaques) as a consequence of deforestation, assessing the potential for a shift from zoonotic to sustained P. knowlesi transmission between humans is critical.MethodsA multi-host, multi-site transmission model was developed, taking into account the three areas (forest, farm, and village) where transmission is thought to occur. Latin hypercube sampling of model parameters was used to identify parameter sets consistent with possible prevalence in macaques and humans inferred from observed data. We then explore the consequences of increasing human-macaque contact in the farm, the likely impact of rapid treatment, and the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in preventing wider spread of this emerging infection.ResultsIdentified model parameters were consistent with transmission being sustained by the macaques with spill over infections into the human population and with high overall basic reproduction numbers (up to 2267). The extent to which macaques forage in the farms had a non-linear relationship with human infection prevalence, the highest prevalence occurring when macaques forage in the farms but return frequently to the forest where they experience higher contact with vectors and hence sustain transmission. Only one of 1,046 parameter sets was consistent with sustained human-to-human transmission in the absence of macaques, although with a low human reproduction number (R(0H) = 1.04). Simulations showed LLINs and rapid treatment provide personal protection to humans with maximal estimated reductions in human prevalence of 42% and 95%, respectively.ConclusionThis model simulates conditions where P. knowlesi transmission may occur and the potential impact of control measures. Predictions suggest that conventional control measures are sufficient at reducing the risk of infection in humans, but they must be actively implemented if P. knowlesi is to be controlled.
| S-EPMC4109903 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThere are no licensed vaccines against Plasmodium vivax , the most common cause of malaria outside of Africa.MethodsWe conducted two Phase I/IIa clinical trials to assess the safety, immunogenicity and efficacy of two vaccines targeting region II of P. vivax Duffy-binding protein (PvDBPII). Recombinant viral vaccines (using ChAd63 and MVA vectors) were administered at 0, 2 months or in a delayed dosing regimen (0, 17, 19 months), whilst a protein/adjuvant formulation (PvDBPII/Matrix-M™) was administered monthly (0, 1, 2 months) or in a delayed dosing regimen (0, 1, 14 months). Delayed regimens were due to trial halts during the COVID-19 pandemic. Volunteers underwent heterologous controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) with blood-stage P. vivax parasites at 2-4 weeks following their last vaccination, alongside unvaccinated controls. Efficacy was assessed by comparison of parasite multiplication rate (PMR) in blood post-CHMI, modelled from parasitemia measured by quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction (qPCR).ResultsThirty-two volunteers were enrolled and vaccinated (n=16 for each vaccine). No safety concerns were identified. PvDBPII/Matrix-M™, given in the delayed dosing regimen, elicited the highest antibody responses and reduced the mean PMR following CHMI by 51% (range 36-66%; n=6) compared to unvaccinated controls (n=13). No other vaccine or regimen impacted parasite growth. In vivo growth inhibition of blood-stage P. vivax correlated with functional antibody readouts of vaccine immunogenicity.ConclusionsVaccination of malaria-naïve adults with a delayed booster regimen of PvDBPII/ Matrix-M™ significantly reduces the growth of blood-stage P. vivax . Funded by the European Commission and Wellcome Trust; VAC069, VAC071 and VAC079 ClinicalTrials.gov numbers NCT03797989 , NCT04009096 and NCT04201431 .
| S-EPMC9164524 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Although some malaria-control programs are beginning to combine insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), little is known about the effectiveness of such combinations. We use a mathematical model to compare the effectiveness of ITNs and IRS with dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) or bendiocarb, applied singly and in combination, in an epidemiological setting based in Namawala, Tanzania, with Anopheles gambiae as the primary vector. Our model indicates that although both IRS (with DDT) and ITNs provide personal protection, humans with only ITNs are better protected than those with only IRS, and suggests that high coverage of IRS with bendiocarb may interrupt transmission, as can simultaneous high coverage of ITNs and IRS with DDT. When adding a second vector-control intervention, it is more effective to cover the unprotected population first. Although our model includes some assumptions and approximations that remain to be addressed, these findings should be useful for prioritizing and designing future field research.
| S-EPMC2911164 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGiven the increasing evidence of Plasmodium vivax infections associated with severe and fatal disease, the identification of sensitive and reliable markers for vivax severity is crucial to improve patient care. Circulating nucleic acids (CNAs) have been increasingly recognized as powerful diagnostic and prognostic tools for various inflammatory diseases and tumors as their plasma concentrations increase according to malignancy. Given the marked inflammatory status of P. vivax infection, we investigated here the usefulness of CNAs as biomarkers for malaria morbidity.Methods and findingsCNAs levels in plasma from twenty-one acute P. vivax malaria patients from the Brazilian Amazon and 14 malaria non-exposed healthy donors were quantified by two different methodologies: amplification of the human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT) genomic sequence by quantitative real time PCR (qPCR), and the fluorometric dsDNA quantification by Pico Green. CNAs levels were significantly increased in plasma from P. vivax patients as compared to healthy donors (p<0.0001). Importantly, plasma CNAs levels were strongly associated with vivax morbidity (p<0.0001), including a drop in platelet counts (p = 0.0021). These findings were further sustained when we assessed CNAS levels in plasma samples from 14 additional P. vivax patients of a different endemic area in Brazil, in which CNAS levels strongly correlated with thrombocytopenia (p = 0.0072). We further show that plasma CNAs levels decrease and reach physiological levels after antimalarial treatment. Although we found both host and parasite specific genomic sequences circulating in plasma, only host CNAs clearly reflected the clinical spectrum of P. vivax malaria.ConclusionsHere, we provide the first evidence of increased plasma CNAs levels in malaria patients and reveal their potential as sensitive biomarkers for vivax malaria morbidity.
| S-EPMC3096648 | biostudies-literature
Project description:INTRODUCTION:As malaria transmission declines, understanding the differential impact of intensified control on Plasmodium falciparum relative to Plasmodium vivax and identifying key drivers of ongoing transmission is essential to guide future interventions. METHODS:Three longitudinal child cohorts were conducted in Papua New Guinea before (2006/2007), during (2008) and after scale-up of control interventions (2013). In each cohort, children aged 1-5?years were actively monitored for infection and illness. Incidence of malaria episodes, molecular force of blood-stage infections (molFOB) and population-averaged prevalence of infections were compared across the cohorts to investigate the impact of intensified control in young children and the key risk factors for malaria infection and illness in 2013. RESULTS:Between 2006 and 2008, P. falciparum infection prevalence, molFOB, and clinical malaria episodes reduced by 47%, 59% and 69%, respectively, and a further 49%, 29% and 75% from 2008 to 2013 (prevalence 41.6% to 22.1% to 11.2%; molFOB: 3.4 to 1.4 to 1.0 clones/child/year; clinical episodes incidence rate (IR) 2.6 to 0.8 to IR 0.2 episodes/child/year). P. vivax clinical episodes declined at rates comparable to P. falciparum between 2006, 2008 and 2013 (IR 2.5 to 1.1 to 0.2), while P. vivax molFOB (2006, 9.8; 2008, 12.1) and prevalence (2006, 59.6%; 2008, 65.0%) remained high in 2008. However, in 2013, P. vivax molFOB (1.2) and prevalence (19.7%) had also substantially declined. In 2013, 89% of P. falciparum and 93% of P. vivax infections were asymptomatic, 62% and 47%, respectively, were sub-microscopic. Area of residence was the major determinant of malaria infection and illness. CONCLUSION:Intensified vector control and routine case management had a differential impact on rates of P. falciparum and P. vivax infections but not clinical malaria episodes in young children. This suggests comparable reductions in new mosquito-derived infections but a delayed impact on P. vivax relapsing infections due to a previously acquired reservoir of hypnozoites. This demonstrates the need to strengthen implementation of P. vivax radical cure to maximise impact of control in co-endemic areas. The high heterogeneity of malaria in 2013 highlights the importance of surveillance and targeted interventions to accelerate towards elimination.
| S-EPMC6900859 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The diagnosis and treatment of Plasmodium vivax malaria differs from that of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in fundamentally important ways. This article reviews the guiding principles, practices, and evidence underpinning the diagnosis and treatment of P. vivax malaria.
| S-EPMC5198890 | biostudies-literature