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Accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity score and the Nottingham risk score in hip fracture patients in Sweden - A prospective observational study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Little is known about accuracy of common risk prediction scores in elderly patients suffering from hip fractures. The objective of this study was to investigate accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) score, Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) score and the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for prediction of mortality and morbidity in this patient group. METHODS:This was a prospective single centre observational study on 997 patients suffering out-of-hospital cervical, trochanteric or subtrochanteric fracture of the neck of the femur. Calibration and discrimination was assessed by calculating the ratio of observed to expected events (O:E) and areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC). RESULTS:The 30-day mortality was 6.2% and complications, as defined by POSSUM, occurred in 41% of the patients. Overall O:E ratios for POSSUM, P-POSSUM and NHFS scores for 30-day mortality were 0.90, 0.98, and 0.79 respectively. The models underestimated mortality in the lower risk bands and overestimated mortality in the higher risk bands. In contrast, POSSUM predicted morbidity well with O:E ratios close to unity in most risk bands. The areas under the ROC curves for the scoring systems was 0.60-0.67. CONCLUSION:The POSSUM score and NHFS show moderate calibration and poor discrimination in this cohort. The results suggest that mortality and morbidity in hip fracture patients are largely dependent on factors that are not included in these scores.

SUBMITTER: Jonsson MH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6099275 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity score and the Nottingham risk score in hip fracture patients in Sweden - A prospective observational study.

Jonsson M H MH Bentzer P P Turkiewicz A A Hommel A A

Acta anaesthesiologica Scandinavica 20180423 8

<h4>Background</h4>Little is known about accuracy of common risk prediction scores in elderly patients suffering from hip fractures. The objective of this study was to investigate accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) score, Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) score and the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for prediction of mortality and morbidity in this patient group.<h4>Methods</h4>This was a prospective single centre o ...[more]

PMID: 29687439

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Project description:The purpose of this retrospective study was to compare the hip structural analysis (HSA) levels of patients with those of a hip fracture group. All patients with an initial hip fracture who were older than or equal to 65 years old and admitted to our hospital between March 2018 and January 2019 were eligible for this study. During the study period, 134 hip fracture patients aged 65 years and older were admitted to the study institution, and a total of 51 hip fracture patients were ultimately assigned to the patient group. Age, sex, body mass index (BMI), skeletal muscle index (SMI), and vitamin D were matched in the two groups (hip fracture (HF) group vs. non-hip fracture group) using propensity score matching (PSM) without any statistical differences. Following propensity score matching, 51 patients in the HF group and 51 patients in the non-HF group were included in the study, respectively. Hip axis length (p = 0.031), neck-shaft angle (p = 0.043), width of intertrochanter (p = 0.005), and femur shaft (p = 0.01) were found to be significantly higher in the HF group (107.31 (mean) ± 9.55 (standard deviation, SD), 131.11 ± 5.29, 5.57 ± 0.58, and 3.05 ± 0.23, respectively) than in the non-HF group (102.07 ± 14.15, 128.85 ± 5.81, 5.29 ± 0.38, and 2.92 ± 0.23, respectively). However, cross-sectional area (CSA) of femur neck (p = 0.005) and femur shaft (p = 0.01) as well as cortical thickness (CT) of femur neck (p = 0.031) and femur shaft (p = 0.031) were found to be significantly lower in the HF group (1.93 ± 0.44, 3.18 ± 0.83, 0.11 ± 0.02, and 0.38 ± 0.09, respectively) than in the non-HF group (2.12 ± 0.46, 3.57 ± 0.78, 0.13 ± 0.03, and 0.47 ± 0.11, respectively). The HSA showed excellent sensitivity (82.4% to 90.2%). HSA is an important factor in predicting the occurrence of hip fracture. Therefore, not only should bone mineral density (BMD) be considered clinically, but it is also important to look closely at HSA for risk of hip fracture.

Project description:This study used nationwide hip fracture data from Denmark and Sweden during 1987-2010 to examine effects of (birth) cohort and period. We found that time trends, cohort, and period effects were different in the two countries. Results also indicated that hip fracture rates may increase in the not so far future.IntroductionThe reasons for the downturn in hip fracture rates remain largely unclear but circumstances earlier in life seem important.MethodsWe ascertained hip fractures in the populations ≥50 years in Denmark and Sweden in national discharge registers. Country- and sex-specific age-period-cohort (APC) effects during 1987-2010 were evaluated by log-likelihood estimates in Poisson regression models presented as incidence rate ratios (IRR).ResultsThere were 399,596 hip fractures in SE and 248,773 in DK. Age-standardized hip fracture rate was stable in SE men but decreased in SE women and in DK. Combined period + cohort effects were generally stronger in SE than DK and in women than men. IRR per period ranged from 1.05 to 1.30 in SE and 0.95 to 1.21 in DK. IRR per birth cohort ranged from 1.07 to 3.13 in SE and 0.77 to 1.67 in DK. Relative period effects decreased with successive period in SE and described a convex curve in DK. Relative cohort effects increased with successive birth cohort in both countries but with lower risks for DK women and men and SE women born around the 1930s (age 75-86 years today and responsible for most hip fractures) partly explaining the recent downturn. Men and women born thereafter however seem to have a higher hip fracture risk, and we expect a reversal of the present decline in rates, with increasing hip fracture rates in both Denmark and Sweden during the upcoming decade.ConclusionsTime trends, cohort, and period effects were different in SE and DK. This may reflect differences in general health as evident in known differences in life expectancy, healthcare organization, and prevention such as use of anti-osteoporosis drugs. Analyses indicate that hip fracture rates may increase in the not so far future.

Project description:BackgroundRehabilitation programmes are used to improve hip fracture outcomes. There is little published trial clinical trial or population-based data on the effects of the type or provider of rehabilitation treatments on hip fracture outcomes. We evaluated the associations of rehabilitation interventions with post-operative hip fracture outcomes.MethodsCross-sectional (2013-2015) analysis of data from the English National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) from all 191 English hospitals treating hip fractures. Of 62,844 NHFD patients, we included 17,708 patients with rehabilitation treatment and 30-day mobility data, and 34,142 patients with rehabilitation treatment and discharge destination data. The intervention was early mobilisation rehabilitation treatments delivered by a physiotherapist (PT, physical therapist in North America) or other clinical staff as identifiable in NHFD. We used ordinal logistic and propensity scoring regression models to adjust for confounding variables including age, sex, pre-fracture mobility, operative delay, and cognitive function and peri-operative risk scores.ResultsIn both the adjusted multivariate and propensity-weighted analyses, mobilisation on the day or the day following surgery is associated with better mobility function 30 days after discharge. However patients mobilised by a PT did not have better mobility compared to mobilisation by other professionals. Patients who received a PT assessment were not protected from poorer mobility 30 days after discharge, compared with those who did not receive an assessment. The discharge destination outcome is also better in mobilised than unmobilised patients, whether done by a PT or another health professional, and the difference persists, slightly attenuated, after propensity weighting.ConclusionsIn addition to the type of health professional initiating mobilisation, data on rehabilitation treatment activity and post-operative gait speed is needed to determine optimum rehabilitation dosage and functional outcome. After adjustment patients mobilised by non-PTs did as well as patients mobilised by PTs, suggesting that PTs' current roles in very early rehabilitation should be reconsidered, with a view to redeploying them to more specialised later rehabilitation activity.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Reoperation rates are high after surgery for hip fractures. We investigated the effect of a sliding hip screw versus cancellous screws on the risk of reoperation and other key outcomes. METHODS:For this international, multicentre, allocation concealed randomised controlled trial, we enrolled patients aged 50 years or older with a low-energy hip fracture requiring fracture fixation from 81 clinical centres in eight countries. Patients were assigned by minimisation with a centralised computer system to receive a single large-diameter screw with a side-plate (sliding hip screw) or the present standard of care, multiple small-diameter cancellous screws. Surgeons and patients were not blinded but the data analyst, while doing the analyses, remained blinded to treatment groups. The primary outcome was hip reoperation within 24 months after initial surgery to promote fracture healing, relieve pain, treat infection, or improve function. Analyses followed the intention-to-treat principle. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00761813. FINDINGS:Between March 3, 2008, and March 31, 2014, we randomly assigned 1108 patients to receive a sliding hip screw (n=557) or cancellous screws (n=551). Reoperations within 24 months did not differ by type of surgical fixation in those included in the primary analysis: 107 (20%) of 542 patients in the sliding hip screw group versus 117 (22%) of 537 patients in the cancellous screws group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·83, 95% CI 0·63-1·09; p=0·18). Avascular necrosis was more common in the sliding hip screw group than in the cancellous screws group (50 patients [9%] vs 28 patients [5%]; HR 1·91, 1·06-3·44; p=0·0319). However, no significant difference was found between the number of medically related adverse events between groups (p=0·82; appendix); these events included pulmonary embolism (two patients [<1%] vs four [1%] patients; p=0·41) and sepsis (seven [1%] vs six [1%]; p=0·79). INTERPRETATION:In terms of reoperation rates the sliding hip screw shows no advantage, but some groups of patients (smokers and those with displaced or base of neck fractures) might do better with a sliding hip screw than with cancellous screws. FUNDING:National Institutes of Health, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Stichting NutsOhra, Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development, Physicians' Services Incorporated.

Project description:BackgroundHypotension during anaesthesia for hip fracture surgery is common. Recent data suggest that there is an association between the lowest intra-operative blood pressure and mortality, even when adjusted for co-morbidities. This is consistent with data derived from the wider surgical population, where magnitude and duration of hypotension are associated with mortality and peri-operative complications. However, there are no trial to data to support more aggressive blood pressure control.Methods/designWe are conducting a three-centre, randomised, double-blinded pilot study in three hospitals in the United Kingdom. The sample size will be 75 patients (25 from each centre). Randomisation will be done using computer-generated concealed tables. Both participants and investigators will be blinded to group allocation. Participants will be aged >70 years, cognitively intact (Abbreviated Mental Test Score 7 or greater), able to give informed consent and admitted directly through the emergency department with a fractured neck of the femur requiring operative repair. Patients randomised to tight blood pressure control or avoidance of intra-operative hypotension will receive active treatment as required to maintain both of the following: systolic arterial blood pressure >80% of baseline pre-operative value and mean arterial pressure >75 mmHg throughout. All participants will receive standard hospital care, including spinal or general anaesthesia, at the discretion of the clinical team. The primary outcome is a composite of the presence or absence of defined cardiovascular, renal and delirium morbidity within 7 days of surgery (myocardial injury, stroke, acute kidney injury, delirium). Secondary endpoints will include the defined individual morbidities, mortality, early mobility and discharge to usual residence.DiscussionThis is a small-scale pilot study investigating the feasibility of a trial of tight intra-operative blood pressure control in a frail elderly patient group with known high morbidity and mortality. Positive findings will provide the basis for a larger-scale study.Trial registrationISRCTN Registry identifier: ISRCTN89812075 . Registered on 30 August 2016.

Dataset Information

Accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity score and the Nottingham risk score in hip fracture patients in Sweden - A prospective observational study.

Publications

Accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity score and the Nottingham risk score in hip fracture patients in Sweden - A prospective observational study.

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